Day 6, a brief summary: after very tentative signs of deceleration on Thurs/Friday, today saw a significant surge in fighting. All parties made statements or speeches indicating battles today seen as critical. ARM MoD says this is full-scale war, land + air + cyber. 1/7
Reported Armenian KIA stands at c. 206, ARM MoD has published details of 243 Azerbaijanis it claims KIA, but real figures for both likely much higher, especially after intense fighting in NE and SE of Line of Contact today; many hundreds more wounded. 2/7
Azerbaijan has said that 7/8 villages recaptured, incl. Madagiz in NE Karabakh and villages in SE in Fizuli-Jebrayil; there was a jubilant mood reported in Baku. Too early to confirm shifts in territorial control; certain though that aims much more ambitious than in 2016. 3/7
N. Pashinyan gave a televised address claiming no major strategic change; there have been reports from ARM journalists in NK that the LoC has moved in some places + ARM reports that ARM forces repelled attacks have gained positions suitable for counter-attack. 4/7
Were previous days aimed at softening up Armenian defences, pending more concentrated land assault today? Or has previous fighting not yielded intended results, needing more concentration of forces? Impossible to say for now. 5/7
3 possible logics for events to unfold: 1) de-escalation + diplomacy (as in April 2016) v unlikely for now; 2) military outcomes – now dominant; 3) deal-making by parties’ patrons, Russia + Turkey: lots of conspiracy thinking on this but reining in ARM or AZ just now unlikely 6/7
Either way, no let up in fighting foreseen. Our thoughts are with all those in the line of fire today. 7/7
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