Thread by @owasow

Even low-probability events, given enough trials, are likely to occur. Put another way, Trump has been playing Russian roulette with Covid using a “revolver” that had one bullet and thousands of chambers. 1/

Any individual encounter with another person was like a spin of the cylinder and a pull of the trigger that was exceedingly unlikely to result in a bad outcome. 2/

In recent weeks, though, amid reports of uneven testing and visibly crowded gatherings, the White House appears to have become even more lax about Covid. 3/

Across hundreds of reckless interactions, the likelihood of infection rose. And, of course, without mitigating behavior like mask wearing or distancing, Covid spreads exponentially. 4/

So, one risky interaction is more than just a single game of Russian roulette. Rather, each “pull of the trigger” is multiplied against dozens of prior risky interactions. With time, the improbable becomes the inevitable. 5/

What’s maddening is that so much of this could have been prevented. This administration made one pro-Covid decision after another and we’ve all suffered for their dereliction of duty. 6/

A stat that still haunts me is that one in one thousand African Americans has died of Covid. Another estimate found at least half of those folks would be alive if the administration had taken coronavirus more seriously. 7/

What do we call a game of Russian roulette where the “bullets” strike thousands of other people before hitting the man holding “the gun”? fin/