Lesson from Israel: Do not open schools with a high number of daily cases and high infection rates (R around 1). This will fuel a further surge
Analysis of two populations (secular and orthodox) who opened schools at different times, reaching similar outcomes >>>
@EricTopol
In the secular (non-arab, non-orthodox) population:
1. Surge started a few days after school opening
2. Rise started in kids (including 0–10 years of age), and only then spread to the adults
3. The spread was faster in kids than adults and was highest in kids 0–10 years of age
Here is the growth rate R:
R>1: Pandemic spreads
R<1: Pandemic contracts
When we opened schools, R was around 1, and the pandemic was stable, albeit at a high number of cases
The highest rate of spread was two weeks after opening schools, in kids 0–10 years of age
In the orthodox population, boarding schools for boys ("yeshivot") 15–21 years of age opened Aug. 21, and they were largely isolated there
About 10 days later, a huge surge only in this isolated age group
But after two weeks, spread to the younger and older age groups
The surge in the orthodox reached an alarming outbreak rate of R=2, after which R increased in the older population, though never to an R of 2
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