An update post lockdown. Unfortunately, we don't have Google mobility data post-Oct 30th (start date of the lockdown) yet, so let's look at how hospital data changed since then. Quick thread.
From worse to better, let's start with ICU. Incidence and non-parametric fit.
I certainly can't see any change.
Confirmed by the statistical analysis of "R" for ICU data which is still hovering around 1.2
Hospital incidence now.
Same, conclusion: the curve looks the same.
Confirmed again by R estimate still around 1.2... BUT we can see a tiny little improvement in R.
Now if you remember the original thread, I found that cases and ICU/Hospitals were lagged vs. cases and also that any impact on mobility would need 8-14 days to show in hospital data. So we should see more effects of lockdown in cases. What do we have? This.
Ok, I realise it's not obvious, but the ugly exponential now looks slightly more like an ugly straight line. Not great, but is it better? R estimates for cases confirm it's better.
R is only slightly above 1 now.
BUT - and this is a BIG BUT (!) the drop in R is almost perfectly synchronized with school closures due to the school holidays.
So you have two ways of seeing this.
1) the lockdown is working and we just need to wait a bit to see the impact on hospital data
2) the schools closing drove R down... reopening it during the lockdown means the whole thing will fail.
For now, I can't tell from the data which is right. Maybe Google data will help
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