Thread by @ClimateAudit

I've put my statistical analyst hat back on and have started to parse election data.

I've noticed something very counter-intuitive in Pennsylvania data, which commentators have totally missed thus far.

2/ There is only one PA county where Trump dramatically improved Republican - Democrat margin. Without overthinking it, take a guess which one before looking at the answer.

3/ It's Philadelphia!!

Trump reduced the deficit in Philadelphia by ~44K votes from the 2016 deficit vs Hillary.

4/ Trump expanded his margin in red counties, but the gains were immaterial. Gains in 47 red counties but none higher than 3.7K. Average only 1.4K for a total margin increase of 62K in red counties.

5/ Biden's increased margin by 124K in five counties: Bucks, Delaware, Allegheny, Chester and Montgomery and by 55K in 14 counties with lesser margin changes.

6/ I don't know much about these counties, other than four of them seem to be Philadelphia suburbs and the other Pittsburgh. All of these counties had relatively high increases in total number of voters, whereas the population in red counties had little population increase.

7/ there was a very high proportion of D voters in these suburban counties with relatively large voter registration increases.

8/ my quick impression is that, despite its energeticness, Trump's campaign in PA neglected these suburbs in favor of the comfortable welcomes of working class small towns in western PA.

9/ it's also my quick impression that the demographics in PA went slightly against Trump over past 4 years and that these demographic changes would easily be sufficient to account for what was, in reality, a microscopic overall swing from a Trump win by a whisker to

10/ a loss by a whisker.

Trump appears to have run better among small-town working class and (ironically given the cacophony of "racism" allegations) black inner city Philadelphia. But not among virtue-signalling white suburbanites and public sector employees.

11/ much of the concern about potential fraud has focussed on Philadelphia. But Trump dramatically improved performance in Philadelphia relative to 2016 counts strongly against it being a material factor. While the municipal opposition to adequate transparency raises suspicions,

12/ sometimes such officiousness is due to them merely being pricks and that possibility cannot be excluded.

If there is any major fraud (and I'm far from certain that there is, despite the super-centenarians), it should be looked for in counties of Dem margin increase

13/ for reference, I use 2016 NYT voting data by county nytimes.com/elections/2016… and 2020 NYT data for total votes nytimes.com/interactive/20… and used margins from politico.com/2020-election/… to estimate R and D in 2020. Then calculated various differences and changes.

14/ I referred to Philadelphia stats above. Here they are. R votes increased by 20K, D votes decreased by 24K for overall swing of 44K in Trump's favor. It was suburbs and not, despite controversy, the city itself which caused swing in Biden's favor.

15/ in my first quick look at Pennsylvania stats, I observed that Dem 2020 margin gains were dominantly in Philadelphia suburbs and presumed that this was demographic change (Virginia-type). The comment about gains was correct, but NOT due to demographics. PA population stagnant.

16/ Pennsylvania population is relatively even betw Red and Blue counties with slight ~200K edge to Dem counties, but higher population in Deep (>15% margin) Red than Blue counties.

17/ altho PA population had little change, 2020 turnout was ~800K above 2016. Prior to doing calculation, I had presumed that Blue County turnout increase, incl Philly, would be greater than Red County turnout increase. But it wasn't. And Philly (to yesterday) down slightly.

18/ so the explanation lies elsewhere. More later.

19/ grouping PA counties as above, Dem margin expanded substantially in Dem counties EXCEPT Philadelphia; R margin increased in DeepRed counties, but much less. Trump had fairly big gain in Philly, but Dems gained slightly in the the (few) LightRed counties. Interesting pattern.

20/ next tweet will be more granular breakdown of margin changes.

21/ I think that this is a key graphic. It breaks down R and D vote increases (2020/2016) by county grouping (according to political "bias"). Four things stick out to me:
A) the unique crossover to Rs in Philadelphia; B) Dem gains in LightRed counties;

22/ Dem gains in Dem counties are more "partisan" than Rep gains in DeepRed counties.

23/ DeepBlue counties are Delaware, Montgomery and Allegheny. (over 15% 2016 margin).

24/ here's an interesting PA diagram - almost linear inverse correlation between mail-in as % of total votes and Republican-Democrat margin in each county.

25/ there was also VERY little change in county voting patterns except at the edges

26/ here's a new plot showing D share by county (excluding Philadelphia) of additional votes to D share in 2016. D share is higher in red as well as blue counties. In blue counties which were 50-60%D in 2016, additional votes 75+% D.