1/ for "civilians", the most important take-home from proxy data on past climate is whether present climate is "unprecedented" and trending into uncharted territory, the sales pitch of Hockey Stick graphs. High-resolution speleothem data which is continuous from LGM to present..
2/ provides a different perspective. In past 15 years, tremendous expansion of speleothem data, which is almost entirely ignored by PAGES2K. China, in particular, has developed many high-resolution series, one of which (Dongge) shown in this thread.
3/ the most recent value (AD2000) is shown as red dot. It is almost exactly halfway between glacial values (less negative d18O) and early Holocene values (more negative d18O). The shape of this series, in large, is very similar to, but inverted, to common NH Holocene data
1/ documenting questionable incident in #PAGES2K (2017). In respect to Cold Air Cave, South Africa speleothem, they said that they removed "anomalous" period (1956-1976) from calibration since yielded "temperature trends contrary to other published records for last 10,000 years
2/ when checked against original data, PAGES didn't just remove 1956-76 from calibration, they removed it from database and inserted plugged/fabricated data which better matched temperature trends in 20th century - as shown in diagram below.
3/ it's not like this incident overturns EVERYTHING. It's just that it's hard to imagine this sort of opportunistic bodge being done by anyone other than climate scientists. Remember "Briffa bodge"? Early technique to "hide the decline".
1/ Trump recently praised Ulysses Grant in Ohio as Ohio-born. Trivia: between end of Civil War and 1900, 7 of 9 presidential elections were won by 5 Ohio-born Republicans plus 2 of next 5. Not easy to name all 7 without peeking.
2/ three pieces of legislation in present US controversy date from Reconstruction and "counter-Reconstruction" period: 1) statutory crime of "conspiracy to defraud United States" (March 2, 1867); 2) First Reconstruction Act (Mar 2, 1867) required "rebel" states to adopt 14th ...
3/ Amendment in order to be re-admitted. Reconstruction Acts passed by Republicans over veto of Democrat Andrew Johnson, Lincoln's successor. 3) Posse Comitatus Act (1877) was passed by Democrats to restore state rights, reversing black gains under Republican-led Reconstruction
Leland Keyser told investigators that Monica McLean pressured her to "clarify" her statement that was key evidence against Blasey Ford.
McLean's lawyer is David Laufman(!) He (DOJ) and Peter Strzok were the two seniors in softball Hillary interview. wsj.com/articles/frien…
2/ WSJ says "There is no indication Dr. Ford and her legal team were involved in any effort to discuss Ms. Keyser’s statement with her, according to people familiar with the matter." Really? McLean was part of Ford entourage at hearing and at Rehoboth.
3/ here's excerpt of FBI 302 for Hillary interview on July 2, 2016 showing Strzok and Laufman as senior FBI and DOJ investigators respectively handling the softball interview.
unusual connection between Blasey and @MichaelEMann.
Kraemer &Blasey 2006, "Centring in regression analyses: a strategy to prevent errors in statistical inference" observed that "Using non‐centred data in regression analysis..often leads to inconsistent and misleading results".
2/ use of non-centered data in principal components is much worse, as observed in McIntyre and McKitrick 2005 climateaudit.info/pdf/mcintyre.m… where we observed that Mann's centering on a subsegment profoundly biased results towards a hockey stick. In response, Mann argued that centering.
3/ was merely an arbitrary convention and advocated alt-statistics - an ideology which satisfied the highly ideological climate community. While Blasey did not expressly turn her attention to the perils of non-centering in principal components, it is a logical consequence of her
Barack Obama at 29: "I may not be Donald Trump now, but just you wait; if I don't make it, my children will.” A comment that under-estimates the uniqueness of both Trump and Obama. complex.com/life/2017/05/h…
Papadop's lawyer told judge that "the timeline is so important in this case" but his narrative screwed up simple chronology of events. More gong show.
2/ Pap met Mifsud in Rome on March 14, announced on Trump foreign policy team in WaPo on March 21, has lunch in London on Mar 24 with Mifsud and Olga; meets Trump foreign policy committee on Mar 31; has "dirt" breakfast with M on Apr 26. Apr 30 last day at LCILP.
3/ @Techno_Fog got transcript. Watch how lawyers botch. They start with Mar 21 announcement of Trump foreign affairs committee.
interest news about two Russians apparently visiting Skripal on March 4. Arrived at train station at 11:48, walked towards Skripal house, seen on CCTV at 11:58. Next seen on CCTV at 13:05 near town center, back to train station at 13:50. Skripals seen on A360 at 13:35, then
2/ then at Sainsbury parking at 13:40, feed ducks at 13:45, then to Zizzis and Mill Pub (inconsistent versions of order), collapse on park bench at 16:15. Window for Russians at Skripal house is about 12:05 to 12:45. Police say they sprayed doorknob. Wonder if they met Skripal?
3/ if Skripals were inside house at time and left just prior to A360 sighting, then both must have touched outside doorknob on exit at say 13:20 - note: usually only one person in party shuts door, but maybe they forgot something.
2/ for the purposes of guessing the redactions, the Schiff Memo appears to have been written in Times New Roman font 11, with left and right margins ~1" and 1.18". In case anyone wants to examine other possibilities in this paragraph or elsewhere in memo.
3/ our best guess as to first two redactions is "from an American diplomat" (Elizabeth Dibble) and "to a senior diplomat in London" (Alexander Downer). Reasoning is explained here: steemit.com/papadopoulos/@… Obviously speculative. I can't see any valid reason for redactions.
2/ another interesting item in Akhmetshin Senate testimony: he and Veselnitskaya lobbied a congressional delegation visiting Russia in early April 2016
3/ event can be identified: on Apr 3, 2016, five US congressmen: three Democrats (David Cicilline, Brian Higgins, Juan Vargas) and two Republicans (French Hill, Dana Rohrbacher) at Valdai Club discussion. Valdai program director is Igor Timofeev valdaiclub.com/events/posts/a…
a puzzle on Papadopoulos' plea. Pap said that Mifsud told him about "dirt" early on, while FBI said that Mifsud actually told him about "dirt" in "late April". Since Mifsud flatly denied telling Pap about dirt and no record in contemporary emails , how did FBI KNOW "late April"?
2/ after puzzling a long time about this, I just noticed "late April" date in Schiff memo on Page FISA warrant of Oct 2016, i.e. three months before interviewing Pap in Jan 2017. So what was basis of "late April" date in FISA application?
3/ only apparent source as of Oct 2016 would appear to be Downer's original statement to Strzok in early August. In April 2018 Downer interview with The Australian archive.is/FXsyD, detail that Pap told in "late April" not mentioned.
1/ in 2008, historian Mary Hershberger re-appraised John McCain's statement that "I’m an old Navy pilot. I know when a crisis calls for all hands on deck" in connection with 1967 catastrophe on USS Forrestal in which 134 dead/missing and 161+ injured. truthdig.com/report/item/20…
2/ catastrophic fire and explosion of multiple bombs resulted from concatenation of events described in official report jag.navy.mil/library/invest…. McCain was in jet at epicenter, but luckily managed to walk away unscathed, while everyone around him perished or seriously injured.
3/ over the years, there have been rumors, that McCain, then a reckless flyboy (more recently merely reckless), precipitated incident through "wet-start" of jet engine. While his safety motto was "to hell with checklist", he was cleared of fault. But proven conduct troubling.
According to WaPo archive.is/fIkQy article (based on leaks), Manafort and Gates firmly turned down Papadopoulos' promotion of a Trump-Putin meeting, not even wanting to dignify it with a senior response.
2/ however, in the narrative of the Statement of Offense, the Mueller thugs did not report Manafort and Gates' firm rejection of Papadopoulos' scheme.
3/ instead, they only alluded to Manafort's response in a footnote and omitted/concealed Gates' undertaking to use the campaign's "correspondence coordinate" to reject Papadopoulos' scheme
both Cohen and Manafort were convicted on counts of making false statement on bank loan application. So was Imran Awan, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz' IT pal. Unusually, the judge (Tanya Chutkan, a 2013 Obama appointee) apologized to the just convicted felon
2/ Chutkan, the same judge who ruled that illegal immigrants had right to government-funded abortions, apologized to the convict during sentencing for the "unbelievable onslaught of scurrilous media attacks" against just convicted Awan
3/ Chutkan sentenced Awan to time served: one overnight in jail. Awan had been arrested on July 25, 2017 at Dulles airport in flight to Pakistan - only two days prior to Papadopoulos' arrest at Dulles airport.
there's remarkable structural similarity between the 8 Manafort and 8 Cohen convictions. 5 of 8 counts are individual years of income tax. Next, bank loan applications: Manafort 2, Cohen 1. Manafort (1 count) not registering foreign bank account; Cohen (2) campaign contribution
2/ if one were to ask ordinary citizens to single out a form of pernicious political abuse, it would be using the IRS against one's political enemies. But surely it's even worse when such IRS persecution is carried out by a Special Counsel with its extra resources and power.
3/ none of the supposed bank frauds arose from complaints by the banks. They arose only because Mueller used IRS powers to investigate and persecute political opponents.
Mueller Sentencing Memorandum against Papadop is astonishingly sour and surly. It demonstrates gross incompetence by both FBI and Mueller for which they attempt to blame Papadop, rather than admitting. In doing so, they lied to court about timing, just as they accused Papadop.
2/ Mueller said that lies "caused damage" to investigation because they were "early" in investigation when "key decisions" were being made. In fact, Papadop interview was nearly six months after investigation started. Mueller lied about timing, just as he accused Papadop of doing
3/ Mueller made a very testy response, purporting to deny claims by @simonamangiante that Papadop had "voluntarily reported" Mifsud's identity to FBI. FBI response contains new details on interview. I will parse remarkable possibility that FBI had NO prior knowledge of Mifsud.
Justin Trudeau's new campaign slogan: Make Amara Canadian Again.
Zakaria Amara is Jordanian AlQaeda whose dual Canadian citizenship was stripped plotted to behead previous Canadian PM Stephen Harper. Next question: will Trudeau give $10.5 MM compensation to Amara for arrest?
2/ In an accompanying statement, Justin Trudeau said:
"Diversity is our strength. AlQaeda has become an important and distinctive voice in world affairs. Restoring or granting Canadian citizenship to AlQaeda cadres will only make Canada more diverse and thus even stronger.
3/ Trudeau continued:
"AlQaeda strongly believes that Canadian diversity (and thus strength) will be enhanced by beheading former Conservative PM Stephen Harper. We wish Zakaria Amara and his AlQaeda associates the very best in their future endeavours as Canadian citizens."
Jaap Titular, commenting at Climate Audit, climateaudit.org/2018/07/19/a-r… has interesting take on key Indictment paragraph about word searches in Moscow yielding breadcrumb trail from #Guccifer2 - a key new link outside G2-DCLeaks "bubble".
2/ Jaap points out that exact wording of paragraph doesn't make sense if you watch the pea (as we've learned to do in climate). The sentence as written rolls easily, but Jaap asks why you would log into a Moscow "server" to do a Google search.
3/ Jaap then observes that supposed reason why you searched your Moscow server for these words is "because you use those exact same words later in some piece that you are writing. ??? Does that even make sense ???"
1/ Jaap Titulaer, a shrewd commenter at Climate Audit climateaudit.org/2018/07/19/a-r… , building on analysis of spearphish syntax, distinguished Podesta-Rinehart spearphish from massive spearphish campaign linked to Fancy Bear infrastructure. Challenges link.
2/ Jaap also observed that theft of email or user login credentials is insufficient for installation of malware. He draws attention to gap in Indictment logic and reasonably asks why.
3/ Jaap did useful review of DNC obtuseness to repeated FBI warnings about Cosy Bear presence. The damaging DNC hack emails were sent after DNC KNEW from Crowdstrike that two Russian hacking groups were in their system
THREAD: the first article on DNC hack was in WaPo, June 14, by Ellen Nakashima web.archive.org/web/2016061415… It almost certainly stays close to script developed by DNC and Crowdstrike. So how does it stand up now that we know more? One expects disinformation, but form can be telling
2/ DNC admitted hack of "database of all opposition research" and "all email and chat traffic". Clinton said that, to her knowledge, Clinton campaign "has not been hacked into" and would be priority.
3/ in fact, Clinton campaign (Podesta emails) had been hacked. Indeed, Podesta emails had been hacked and were hacked prior to the entry to DNC network by APT28 (described in Indictment). Did Clinton lie about knowledge of Podesta hack or were they that ignorant?
The Mueller indictment stated that "GRU" had leased several servers in the US which were used in DNC/DCCC hack. It also reported that Fancy Bear/APT28 lingered in DCCC network longer than previously stated. Both connect to interpretation of July 5 copy speeds associated w VIPS.
2/ before discussing, some new information. all files in ngpvan 7z archive analysed by VIPS uploaded on July 5. But other G2 zipfile (cf) contains sequential timestamps on other dates which give further perspective. Graph below shows cumulative upload (MB) in June 20 interval
3/ on June 20, over an ~12 minute interval from 16:29 through 16:40, ~203 MB were uploaded in 58 files - an average upload speed of only ~0.3 MB/second. This rate is very different than +20 MB/sec speeds estimated for July 5 copying analysed by Forensicator/VIPS.
THREAD: 1/ last year, I observed climateaudit.org/2017/09/02/ema… that majority of DNC hack emails, including most damaging, were sent AFTER Crowdstrike diagnosed that DNC network hacked by Russia.
2/ on May 6, 2016, senior DNC officials KNEW that DNC servers had been hacked by Russia. Nonetheless, DNC officials persisted in exchange of emails that were so embarrassing that exposure forced resignation of Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
3/ did top DNC officials fail to warn mid-level officials (e.g. finance department involved in embarrassing emails) that DNC had been hacked, that documents could be exposed? Or were DNC officials warned and ignored warning? Despite massive publicity, we don't know. Which is it?