I've been re-examining the fine-grained chronology of demands that Shokin be fired in light of frustrated Nov 2, 2015 email from Burisma more or less telling Hunter Biden to get something done on making the Burisma investigations disappear.
2/ it seems a remarkable coincidence, to say the least, that at exactly this time, the State Dept "independently" decided that it was US policy to remove Shokin - a policy that Joe Biden adopted instantly and with great enthusiasm.
3/ having re-read transcripts of Victoria Nuland and others, I get the sense that they arrived at these policies without direct instruction from Biden. Yet somehow they came up with a policy that was exactly what Burisma wanted, while professing that Shokin failed on Burisma
like many readers, I'm reading and dismayed by the FBI spreadsheet purportedly summarizing their analysis of Steele dossier. scribd.com/document/47978…
if incompetence, laziness and stupidity were crimes, then Comey's "right people" would all be in jail long ago.
2/ but, before further editorializing, let's consider FBI General Counsel James Baker's description of verification techniques, as told to Telegraph telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/1… (Episode 2, 15:42 ff). Always best to judge work product by their own standards and protocols.
3/ Baker observed that reliance on open source for verification was "tricky because source could have gotten information from open source as well, so you have to be wary". It doesn't take John LeCarre or James Jesus Angleton to figure that out. Yet spreadsheet abounds in examples
always lots of debate about US COVID numbers. Here's how I like to look at data: three panels: daily NewCases, hospitalizedCurrently and daily NewDeaths. Decline in NewCases and hospitalized in summer has seemingly stalled. Reason interesting,
2/ first wave was in NY, NJ area which subsided after ~8 weeks; then 2nd wave in southern states (FL,AZ, TX shown here). It had very similar case pattern but much lower hospitalizations and deaths. So why hasn't overall data also diminished as 2nd wave dissipates?
3/ there's a third pulse in more "remote" states in northern plains and midwest: ND, SD, MT, UT; also WI. Since populations small, 3rd pulse led to much lesser national increase. Even lower hospitalizations and deaths thus far then 2nd pulse, much lower than 1st pulse.
Here's a scatter plot showing (my interpretation) of stated Dancheno "proximate" sources (numbered in interview) vs use in Steele dossier by date. There is pattern and structure that has gone almost entirely unnoticed.
2/ on the evening of June 15, Ivan Vorontsov (S2) and Sergei Abyshev (S1) went drinking with Igor Danchenko (PSS) in Moscow. Vorontsov went to huge St Petersburg economic conference the next day (which, ironically, Millian attended). Igor stayed in Moscow.
3/ S1 and S2 were both described by PSS as sources for Report 80, the first ("pee tape") report, which I believe to have been primarily fabricated into very embellished and fraudulent document in Steele's office based on context from Danchenko. Danchenko also told FBI that
@shipwreckedcrew problem with your argument is there was real distinction betw sanctions and expulsions, which was important and relevant to Flynn. In his only contemporary interview (Feb 15, 2017), he readily admitted that he had discussed expulsions, but vehemently denied discussing sanctions.
@shipwreckedcrew 2/ this interview was in response to blockbuster WaPo article which, based on conversations with /893/ anonymous officials in a position to know, said that Flynn had specifically discussed sanctions.
@shipwreckedcrew 3/ Flynn was not guilty of lying about "US Sanctions" as defined in Statement of Offense. At the time, for various reasons, Flynn seems to have assumed that, despite his memory otherwise, the government must have had transcripts showing that he had discussed US Sanctions
recent Barr letter on Danchenko contained unredaction of Horowitz Footnote 334, which commented on claim that "Steele himself was not the originating source of any of the factual information in his reporting". What does this actually mean? Is it true?
2/ as someone who's studied this very closely, it seems virtually certain to me that many details in the Steele dossier, including nearly all of the details of interest, did NOT originate with the PSS, but were embellishments or fabrications introduced in Steele's writeup.
3/ Was Horowitz archly trolling readers by his use of the term "factual information" (as opposed to more generic term of (say) details in the Steele dossier. I.e. anything that was true did not originate with Steele. But I really don't think that Horowitz was being that cute.
in 2008, Danchenko, according to his now deleted CV archive.is/rK4M6, while at Georgetown and Brookings, also did an assignment for Jane's, now a subsidiary of IHS Markit, which annually publishes Jane's Fighting Ships en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jane%27s_…
2/ in the recent Barr letter, the FBI reported that, in their prior investigation, one of Danchenko's associates (presumably at Brookings) said that he "persistently asked about" their knowledge of a particular military vessel.
3/ in the spirit of an aluminum tube not necessarily being evidence of WMD - a possibility insufficiently scrutinized by Colin Powell, is it possible that Danchenko's inquiry about military vessel was to make money from Jane's, as opposed to spying for Russia?
I'm re-examining what was unredacted in April. Here's a small but interesting point clarified when Danchenko network unrolled. FN 347 refers to Olga Galkina, Danchenko's longtime BFF from Perm, who had very active social media presence.
2/ Danchenko identified Galkina as Source 3 in his Jan 2017 interview. Unredaction of FN 347 says that "FBI received information in **early June 2017** which revealed that, among other things, there were.. personal and business ties between the sub-source" and Primary Sub-Source.
3/ but Danchenko interview in **January** 2017 already disclosed that Danchenko and Galkina had been friends since the 8th grade in Perm.
Recommend that you treat it as an audio, not a video. My camera angle is offcenter and I move around too much. But if you listen to it like radio program, it's better.
we discuss the recent news that FBI and intel community concealed information about 2009-11 suspicions of Danchenko, even preparation of FISA application, in ICA, thereby enabling inclusion of Steele dossier info into ICA, thus fomenting resistance.
McCarthy, as always, writes an interesting and important article about Danchenko which gets some key points right but makes a couple of gross errors. Frustrating. (In fairness, unless you're really in the weeds, it's hard to know the details.)
2/ here's a simple but important error. McC notes that FBI began FISA process on Danchenko in July 2010, that FISA process abandoned when D left country "two months later", but that D "did eventually come back" and sit for Jan 2017 FBI interviews.
3/ what's the error? Danchenko actually returned to Washington on or before **October 2010**. He was gone for maybe a month. He's been working in Washington area for the past 10 years. He has a US-born daughter.
in Karen Tramontano's testimony to Senate Judiciary hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…, she was very definite in avoiding any linkage between Hunter Biden and Blue Star. She said that Burisma introduced to Blue Star by Devon Archer, who Blue Star had met through Eric Schwerin.
2/ Tramontano was very obtuse in testimony to Senate Judiciary on Schwerin's background, saying she knew him from Clinton WH days and didn't know where he was working at time of introduction to Burisma or even what he was doing. Suspicious obtuseness for a big-time networker.
3/ so who is Eric Schwerin? In March 2015, a few months before introductions to Blue Star, Obama admin published short bio in announcement of a Schwerin appointment. obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-offi…
He was Founding Partner and Managing Director at Rosemont Seneca Partners since 2008.
that Steele PSS Danchenko was subject of counterintel investigation in 2009, because of suspicious conduct in 2008. Everyone jumps to conclusion that Danchenko must have been spying for Russia, but maybe it was....
2/ maybe it was Steele. In fact, I think that it was. I say this as someone who was on ground floor of efforts to identify PSS and who is familiar with minute details of Danchenko interview and chronology by which Danchenko identified.
3/ when we were parsing Danchenko's bio, I placed Danchenko's introduction to Steele very early - in 2005, based on attribution of introduction to mentor Paul Weber, who died in late 2005.
some crazy Strzok-Page (?) texts that have been concealed for three years. After insane Obama admin ICA on Jan 5-6, 2017, they ask "what is wrong with these people"? "Trump was right".
2/ on Jan 10, 2017, they all "purchased professional liability insurance". Wonder what they disclosed to insurer? Or whether it was Democrat privilege insurance. Meanwhile, they bankrupt civilians who had temerity to be in Trump campaign.
3/ on Jan 13, 2017, redacted (prob not Strzok-Page) speculated that leak on Kislyak came from PDB (Presidential Daily Brief) staff or **"WH seniors"**.
Elizabeth Zentos was co-host (with Eric Ciaramella) of Jan 19, 2016 meeting with Ukrainian prosecutors. She insolently refused to identify her superiors or her subordinates, either at NSC or State Dept. Insolence of bureaucracy to Republicans is quite astounding.
3/ Zentos even refused to confirm that "Eric" in March 4, 2016 email was Eric Ciaramella, her co-host of Jan 19, 2016 meeting with Ukrainians.
ongoing silence from Durham, while Strzok, McCabe, Comey, Brennan etc continue their resistance campaign without pushback. Most documents remain classified due to criminal track investigation. If he loses, Trump's failure to declassify long ago will prove fatal mistake.
I have little doubt that there are numerous incidents in which Comey, McCabe, Strzok, Brennan, made most of their bad decisions from paranoia and stupidity and breach of every FBI and intel rule and policy under the sun, but not necessarily committing a crime.
3/ such abuse of power deserves exposure even if it wasn't a crime. Even if there is an indictment or two, my guess is that 99% of the unhinged resistance will remain untouched and in the shadows.
David Leigh of Guardian is key witness for US persecution of Julian Assange on issue of revealing identities. I corresponded with a Guardian editor, Damian Carrington (who I'd met at Climategate conference in summer 2010) about Leigh's questionable activities in smearing
2/ smearing Paul Dennis of Univ of East Anglia and doxing anonymous blogger Jeff Id. The Guardian was "bemused". See climateaudit.org/2011/08/06/the… Leigh also turns out to have been close associate of Luke Harding, stenographer for Steele fantasies and disinformation.
New article in journal published by Cambridge Univ Press says that testimony to House Oversight Committee in March 2020 mixed up case fatality rate (CFR) and infection fatality rate (IFR) for influenza, resulting in major error. (I report this w/o parsing) cambridge.org/core/services/…
2/ author Ronald Brown (of University of Waterloo in Ontario) said that House Committee was told that estimated mortality was 10 times higher than seasonal influenza. This was prime argument for lockdown.
3/ Brown observed that New England Journal article, just prior to House testimony, had (incorrectly) said that CFR for seasonal influenza was 0.1% whereas 0.1% is actually the value for IFR (WHO).
here is some information which shows the implausibility of main argument purporting to attribute DNC hack to Seth Rich using a thumb drive on the basis that copying speed was too rapid for internet (advocated by Bill Binney and VIPS and many others.) Look closely at latest dates
2/ the copy speed argument is base on implied copying speed of Guccifer 2 documents in the Sept 2016 zipfile, in which thousands of documents had last modified date of July 5, 2016, which, together with cumulative size of documents, implied a copying speed that was
3/ "too fast" for internet uploading (hack), thus supposedly implying a thumb drive download on site by Seth Rich. Not all documents in the G2 zipfile have a July 5 timestamp. Documents contained in four zipfiles bear original timestamps between 2006 and 2011, even as unzipped.
here's another example of sneakiness by Senate SSCI and unjustified assertion by both Mueller and SSCI. SSCI cites incident (citing Mueller) in which 'GRU' inserted "middle server" between DNC and its "AMS panel" "to help mask involvement of Russian government actors".
2/ AMS panel was in Arizona server leased by 'GRU'. Here's how Mueller described incident. See if you can spot what SSCI concealed. (Hard to imagine being sneakier than Mueller, but in this case, they are.)
3/ here's the answer. Senate SSCI concealed that "middle server", supposedly inserted to "mask" Russian govt involvement, was located overseas.
here's another deception by Senate SSCI. They said that hacked DNC emails "covered the period of Jan 2015 through May 2015".
2/ however, there's a sleight-of-hand here. 98+% of emails were sent AFTER April 18, 2016. DNC had 30-day retention policy. Reason for the few emails prior to April 18, 2016 unclear. In other words, nearly all the hacked emails were SENT after DNC knew that they'd been hacked.