Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
Apr 13 19 tweets 11 min read
New thread on new information from redactions.

I just noticed that the information in Binder on Trump briefing in Aug 2016 was previously published by Grassley in July 2020, a few days after identification of Steele Primary Sub-source (and thus we, in this corner, were otherwise preoccupied).
grassley.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…

The new version sheds light on a previous redaction. Katrina, Norm, Ted, John and Amir were mentioned. Just noting this for future reference.Image something else that I'm noticing in the less redacted documents: Kevin Clinesmith was much more prominent in Crossfire Hurricane operation than we previously realized.

In real time, Hans, myself and others had vehemently and savagely criticized Durham's useless plea agreement with Clinesmith that had failed to use their leverage over Clinesmith to obtain a road map of the Russiagate hoax operation. Compare for example Mueller's use of leverage over Rick Gates to interview him about 20 times, If anything, there was more leverage over Clinesmith.

Durham's failure to lever Clinesmith looks worse and worse as we now see Clinesmith's name in multiple Crossfire documents that had previously been redacted.

For example, here is Clinesmith on August 30, 2016 - early days of Russiagate hoax - approving the reporting of FBI surveillance of Trump and Flynn while they were supposedly providing a counterintelligence briefing.

In this briefing, they failed to give Trump and Flynn the same warning about Turkey that they had previously given Clinton's lawyers.Image
Apr 12 40 tweets 24 min read
The "Binder"

I've long predicted that the "Binder" would NOT be anything remotely approximating a comprehensive collection of documents pertaining to the Russia collusion hoax, but would be a re-hash of documents already available, very few of which shed any light on the FBI's role in the metastasis of a Clintonista campign dirty trick into the national flesh-eating disease that undermined and threatened to consume the first Trump administration.

To fully appreciate why the Binder is so uninformative, one needs to consider the circumstances of its construction - illustrated below by the insolent FBI response in Tab #14 (shown in the FOIA release at FBI vault vault.fbi.gov/crossfire-hurr…, but NOT in the present release.)

On December 22, 2020, in response to a request for "all FBI documents concerning contacts between those agencies and [Marc Elias, Michael Sussmann] or other lawyers from Perkins Coie", the FBI insolently stated that "the FBI is not able to search its holdings for 'Perkins Coie' without more information such as FBI custodians and a time period. If the Department of Justice is able to provide additional information, please contact the FBI Office of Congressional Affairs... Thank you".

This exchange shows that the compilation of the Binder was done late in the transition period after Trump had already lost the election and that the FBI was being uncooperative (to say the least) in responding to the request from an outgoing administration. Given the uncooperativeness of the FBI in regard to the Perkins Coie request, the base case has to be that it was uncooperative elsewhere.

This is indeed the case. Much of the Binder is recycled material already available (e.g. from HGSAC in December 2020) or already published by Solomon in early 2021.

Prior to its release, I published a projection of the contents of the Binder based on the considerable available information on its contents available at the FBI Vault and in litigation (see stephenmcintyre.substack.com/p/the-binder).

This projection was almost exactly correct.
Almost everything that I predicted to be in the Binder release was in the release with one major exception. The FBI Vault version of the binder included a heavily redacted version of the third renewal of the Carter Page FISA warrant. The new release not only doesn't contain an unredacted or lesser redacted version of this document, but omits it entirely.

Another interesting omission: the insolent FBI refusal of information regarding Perkins Coie which was part of the FBI Vault version of the dossier is omitted from the 2025 version.

In my prediction, I had observed that there were 815 pages in the Bates index of the FOIA Vault version, of which 569 pages were published (mostly highly redacted) in the Vault version and 246 pages withheld. There were two major withheld blocks in the Vault version (74 pages from Bates 150 to 223 and 94 pages from Bates 592 to 685.) These can now be identified as FBI administrative documents for Halper (new) and the (already available) 94-page FBI spreadsheet on Steele dossier "corroboration".

The new version has varying degrees of redaction. Here and there, there's a new detail from an unredaction. Conversely, there are occasional instances in which a previously unredacted detail is redacted.

The Binder originated with the 40 items listed by John Solomon - see below justthenews.com/accountability….

This will be a long thread correlating sections of the Binder to the Solomon requests and to previous versions, commenting in particular on redactions.

1.Documents showing all the requests made by Obama administration officials to unmask the overseas phone calls of Trump campaign, transition and family members from the beginning of the 2016 election through Inauguration Day 2017. These records have been declassified by Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe but have been awaiting Attorney General William Barr's permission for release, officials told Just the News.
2.The FBI interview reports of Igor Danchenko, the man identified as the primary sub-source for the Christopher Steele dossier, and any intelligence community documents raising concerns since 2008 that Danchenko had contacts with Russian intelligence.
3.Any and all documents gathered during the Justice Department inspector general's office interviews with Christopher Steele, including any notes or documents he turned over concerning his interactions with the FBI and any interview reports, synopses or transcripts.
4.All FBI 302 interview reports, confidential human source validation reports and CHS contact reports for Christopher Steele and Stefan Halper from May 2016 to December 2018.
5.All records showing whether and why Steele or Halper were ever discontinued as confidential human sources for the FBI and CIA.
6.All FBI text messages about the Russia investigation between former FBI Director James Comey, former Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, Assistant Director Bill Priestap, FBI attorney Lisa Page or agent Peter Strzok.
7.The 2018 classified report of referral from the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence to the CIA concerning spy tradecraft failures in the Russia Intelligence Community Assessment.
8.The classified appendix to the DOJ inspector general's report on the FBI Mid-Year Exam investigation, which has been sought by Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) for more than a year.
9.All threat assessment and risk assessment documents produced in connection with the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) review and approval of the Uranium One transaction to Rosatom's ArmZ subsidiary in 2010.
10. An FBI email chain from the early days of Crossfire Hurricane that was identified by Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.)
11.The final spreadsheet created by FBI analysts that assesses the accuracy and substantiation for all allegations contained in the Steele dossier.
12.The Defense Intelligence Agency documents concerning former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and Russia requested by Grassley more than a year ago, including any records of a defensive briefing and tasking orders given to Flynn or debriefings provided by Flynn in connection with his attendance at a Russia Today dinner in Moscow in 2015.
13.All copies of FBI 302 reports created in connection with Flynn from December 2016 and January 2017
14.All emails, text messages and memos from January 2017 concerning discussions about the Flynn probe between former Comey, Priestap and McCabe.
15.All emails between Comey and former NSA Director Mike Rogers regarding involvement of the Steele dossier in the Intelligence Community Assessment on Russian interference in the 2016 election.
16.All FBI 302 interview reports of former Associate Attorney General Bruce Ohr and any evidence Ohr provided to the FBI or DOJ, including thumbdrives from his wife Nellie Ohr, in 2016 or 2017 concerning Russia or the Trump campaign.
17.All records of defensive briefings given in the 2015-16 election cycle to then-candidate Clinton or her campaign and any records of defensive briefings given to Trump or his campaign during the same time frame.
18.All records related to the State Department's July 26, 2016 meeting with an Australian government official concerning George Papadopoulos, Alexander Downer, Russia collusion, DNC hacking or related topics.
19.All records related to the State Department official providing that Australian government information to the FBI or any other member of the U.S. Intelligence Community from May 2016 to August 2016.
20.All State, CIA and FBI records related to the State Department and Australian government contacts between May 2016 and August 2016 concerning Papadopoulos, Downer, Russia collusion, DNC hacking or related topics.
21.All FBI records concerning Bill Priestap's trip to London in May 2016 and Peter Strzok's July 2016 trip to London.
22.All records related to Christopher Steele's contact with State Department officials, including Victoria Nuland, Kathleen Kavalec and Jonathan Winer.
23.All records related to meetings or communications between Glenn Simpson and any State Department, Justice Department, CIA or FBI official between April 2016 and July 2019.
24.All records from 2016 through 2017 related to communications between former Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott or any other employee of the Brookings Institution and any then-current State Department official about Christopher Steele or the Trump campaign.
25.All records from 2016 through 2017 related to communications between Sidney Blumenthal or Cody Shearer and the State Department, FBI, CIA or DOJ concerning matters related to Russia or the Trump campaign.
26.All intelligence reports and memos that Christopher Steele provided the State Department between 2013 and 2017.
27.Any FBI 302 interview reports in 2016 or 2017 with Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska.
28.Any correspondence to or from the U.S. Embassy in London about the FBI sending any official or affiliated person to the United Kingdom to gather information about Trump campaign or Trump family associates.
29.All FBI 302 interview reports with former Senate Intelligence Security chief James Wolfe and any copies of documents he leaked to reporters, including 87 text messages transmitted to a reporter on one day in March 2017.
30.All FBI documents that describe the source of the leak of Michael Flynn's intercepted calls with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak or the source of the leak of the Carter Page FISA warrant.
31.All CIA and FBI documents concerning contacts between those agencies and Marc Elias, William Sussmann or other lawyers from Perkins Coie.
32.All FBI 302 reports of any interviews with former NSA Director Rogers concerning Russia and the Trump campaign/transition.
33.The unredacted version of a May 10, 2017 email from NSC staffer Eric Ciaramella and NSC Strategic Communications official William Kelly referenced in the Mueller report volume II and recently released as fully redacted to the Southeastern Legal Foundation.
34.All FBI 302 reports of interviews with professor Joseph Mifsud between January 2016 and September 2020.
35.All FBI, DOJ or CIA documents concerning the Party of Regions "black ledger" document discovered in 2016 in Ukraine, including any assessments about its accuracy, any interview reports and any analysis of handwriting.
36.All FBI and DOJ records of an August 2016 meeting with FBI officials, Bruce Ohr, Bruce Schwartz, and/or Andrew Weissman concerning Russia or Trump.
37.All FBI and DOJ records concerning an April 2017 meeting between editors and reporters of the Associated Press and FBI and DOJ officials, including Agent Karen Greenaway and DOJ prosecutor Andrew Weissmann.
38.The fully unredacted version of the fourth and final FISA warrant application targeting Carter Page.
39.The CIA communications in 2016 and 2017 to the FBI concerning Carter Page's relationship with the Agency and possible disinformation fed by Russia to Steele's dossier.
40.Any correspondence between the British national security advisor or his deputy during the transition in January 2017 to Michael Flynn or K. T. McFarland concerning the issue of Russia.Image Nothing in Binder responsive to:
1. Documents showing all the requests made by Obama administration officials to unmask the overseas phone calls of Trump campaign, transition and family members from the beginning of the 2016 election through Inauguration Day 2017. These records have been declassified by Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe but have been awaiting Attorney General William Barr's permission for release, officials told Just the News.
Feb 13 7 tweets 5 min read
Climate United Fund, into which Biden EPA appears to have parked $6.97 billion, is a coalition of three 501(c)(3): Calvert Impact Capital, Community Preservation Corporation and Self-Help Credit Union.

The grant was originally announced by Kamala Harris youtube.com/watch?v=-NZqTJ…

Their EPA work plan here:
epa.gov/system/files/d…. Their work plan says that they have managed more than $30 billion in private and institutional capital.

I looked very quickly at the financial statements for each of the three participants.

Calvert Impact assets.ctfassets.net/4oaw9man1yeu/6… shows a 2023 balance sheet with $520 million in portfolio investments and $154 million in cash.

Calvert Impact streams money into a large number of smaller (mostly) non-profits, including for example Artspace boutique homes illustrated below.Image
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Community Preservation Corporation 2023 balance sheet shows $847 million invested in mortgage loans; cash and restricted cash of $342 million, $370 million invested in hedge funds, $101 million in unconsolidated subsidiaries for overall assets of $1.8 billion.

Self-Help Corporation has loans of $3.42 billion, with total assets of $4.49 billion.

All three participants are substantial 501(c)(3) corporations, all three are in the lending business. But their total is nowhere near the $30 billion mentioned in their application. I wonder where the $30 billion comes from.

The business to date of the three participants has been loans. Someone is going to benefit from the infusion of $6.97 billion into these three companies. How will that work? Maybe Kamala Harris can explain.Image
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Dec 2, 2024 4 tweets 2 min read
Victoria Nuland was appointed to Board of Directors of National Endowment of Democracy, the primary US funding agency for overseas NGOs involved in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria.
One can scarcely help wondering what Nuland's input has been in connection with recent NGO activity in Georgia and Syria. for people unfamiliar with Victoria Nuland, she has been mentioned dozens of times in previous threads here.
x.com/search?q=nulan…
Oct 24, 2024 5 tweets 6 min read
Some readers have probably noticed that Microsoft has recently become one of the leading retailers of lurid allegations about "Russian influence operations targeting U.S. elections".

What is being overlooked is the lead author of the Microsoft articles is none other than Clint Watts, the founder (fpri.org/news/2017/08/f…) of the infamous Hamilton 68 dashboard, which was exposed by @mtaibbi in #TwitterFiles 15 (x.com/mtaibbi/status…) as the "next great media fraud".

Taibbi comprehensively exposed the total sham of the Hamilton 68 dashboard. Nonetheless, Clint Watts, the main proponent of the sham Hamilton 68 dashboard, has risen to a more lucrative and more prominent platform at Microsoft, where he continues to propagate the same warmonging claims as he has for more than a decade.Image
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less well known is that Watts also had a curious role in the original Russiagate hoax. Christopher Steele had met Kathleen Kavalec, a senior State Department official on October 11, 2016, where he spun an even more lurid fantasy than the "dossier" itself, adding in Sussmann's false Alfa Bank hoax and naming Millian as a supposed source (notwithstanding his supposed reluctance to identify sources because of "danger".) Kavalec later met with Bruce Ohr, who became Steele's conduit to FBI after November 1, 2016.
Kavalec read Watts' lurid November 6, 2016 article entitled "Trolling for Trump" and, after meeting with Ohr et al on Nov 21, 2016, called Watts in for a meeting on December 7, 2016. warontherocks.com/2016/11/trolli…
Kavalec was so impressed with Watts that she sent a copy of "Trolling for Trump" to Victoria Nuland and other high-level State Department officials including Daniel Fried, John Heffern, Athena Katsoulos, Naz Durakoglu, Jonathan Cohen, Bridget Brink, Eric Green, Christopher Robinson, Conrad Tribble. Earlier in 2016, Brink and Nuland had been involved in the Biden/State Department putsch to remove Shokin as Ukrainian Prosecutor General.Image
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Oct 2, 2024 5 tweets 4 min read
actually, the lesson from Helene is the opposite from that being promoted.

In 1933, the Tennessee Valley Authority was given the mandate for flood control in the valley of the Tennessee River and its tributaries. Over the next 40 years, they built 49 dams, which, for the most part, accomplished their goal. Whereas floods in the Tennessee were once catastrophic, younger people are mostly unaware of them.

The French Broad River (Asheville) is an upstream tributary where flood control dams weren't constructed due to local opposition.

Rather than the devastation of Hurricane Helene on Asheville illustrating the effect of climate change, the success of the flood control dams in other sectors of the Tennessee Valley illustrates the success of the TVA flood control program where it is implemented.

Hurricane Helene did not show the effect of climate change, but what happens to settlements in Tennessee Valley tributaries under "natural" flooding (i.e. where flood control dams have been rejected.) I should add that, in its first 40 years, the TVA built 49 flood control dams, of which 29 were power-generating. In the subsequent 50 years, TVA built 0 flood control dams,
However, in the 1980s, they established the Carbon Dioxide Information Centre (CDIAC) under their nuclear division, which sponsored much influential climate research, including the CRU temperature data (Phil Jones) and Michael Mann's fellowship from which Mann et al 1998 derived.
In 1990, the parents of Crowdstrike's Dmitri Alperovich moved from Russia to Chattanooga, Tennessee, where his father was a TVA nuclear engineer. Dmitri moved to Tennessee a few years later.
One can't help but wonder whether TVA's original mandate for flood control got lost in the executive offices, attracted by more glamorous issues, such as climate change research.
If so, one could reasonably say that a factor in the seeming abandonment of TVA efforts to complete its original flood control mandate (e.g. to French Broad River which inundated Asheville) was partly attributable to diversion of TVA interest to climate change research, as opposed to its mandate of flood control.
Aug 7, 2024 15 tweets 13 min read
as readers are aware, @walkafyre has a long-term project of decoding the Mueller investigation through the laborious project of identifying the interviewees underneath the redactions. Some of the identifications are so ingenious that it's fun. Yesterday was an interesting example, which I'll narrate since it's interesting. (There are many other equally interesting examples.) It is the identification of the interviewee of Bates number B2997, interviewed on Aug 15, 2018 (302 filed on Dec 17, 2018). The 302 was published in volume 11 (page 92) - online at walkafyre's website here:


The 302 has 6 pages. The last 4 pages are totally redacted of information. All identifying information has been redacted from the first two pages except for the presence of Mueller attorney Aaron Zelinsky. Take a look.

And yet from this meagre information, walkafyre has made a firm identification of the interviewee.

It doesn't seem possible, does it. But I've reviewed the backup and it works. I'll explain.themyefiles.knack.com/mueller-files#…Image
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first step. The 302s are in non-proportional font (Courier) and characters can be counted. Last name has 8 characters and praenomen has 9-10 characters.

second step. B2995 previously identified as Ali, Hesham and B3005 previously identified as Bartholomew, Vanessa. 302s are //locally// in alpha order, thus pinning surname to alpha range Ali to Bar.

third step. the interviewee (LN8) interacts with a LN9 frequently.

fourth. the interview was in summer 2018 with Zelinsky in attendance. This indicates that interview was connected to Roger Stone.

fifth, LN9 has given money to "the ___". Probably "the PAC". Public data on Roger Stone's PAC shows that the largest contributor (by far) was John Powers Middleton (9-character last name.)


So the interviewee is a LN8 in alpha range Ali-Bar with some sort of regular connection to Middleton. Walkafyre had this figured out a long time ago, but was stuck.fec.gov/data/receipts/…Image
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Jul 25, 2024 7 tweets 9 min read
@WashAuthor
in your interesting March 2023 article entitled "The Trump Campaign's Collusion with Israel", you observed that the profile of the Israeli agent whose emails were the subject of a May 5, 2018 warrant in the Roger Stone investigation (courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…) was "strikingly similar to that of Isaac Molho".

However, the specific identification to Molho is precluded by several details in the supporting affidavit.

First, on multiple occasions, slightly incomplete redaction revealed that the first letter of the agent's surname was A, as shown in paragraph 43 below (there are several other examples).

Second, the length of the surname is approximately 9 letters. The affidavit is in Times New Roman 11.5 with either default or close to default margins and tabs. While a precise character count is not possible, it is possible to say that the length is approximately 9 letters - much too long for "MOLHO".

Third, from paragraph 63, it appears that the first letter of the first name is also A. The redaction in paragraph 63 is a quote from a text from the Israeli agent to Roger Stone and is too long for the standalone surname, but is consistent with a first name-surname combination.

At first glance, these details seem insufficient to permit a positive attribution, but, remarkably, an Israeli agent with first name beginning with A and a nine-letter surname beginning with A was exposed in January 2019 by @jsrailton and @razhael: Aharon Almog Assouline. See apnews.com/article/9f31fa… and nytimes.com/2019/01/28/wor….

@RonanFarrow subsequently wrote about Assouline's connection to Black Cube, the Israeli private intelligence firm that had worked on behalf of Harvey Weinstein: newyorker.com/news/annals-of…Image
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Below shows an attempted replication of paragraphs 42 and 43 of the May 5, 2018 Stone Warrant in Times New Roman 11.5 with "ASSOULINE" (showing the slightly unredacted A in yellow). If the surname isn't "ASSOULINE", it's a surname of almost identical length in Times New Roman 11.5 that begins with A.

Also shown is an attempted replication of paragraph 63 showing a full name (with AARON rather than AHARON).

While these details (length of surname, A as first letter of surname) do not //prove// that Assouline was the Israeli agent, they severely limit the field of potential candidates and eliminate Molho.Image
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Jun 8, 2024 12 tweets 8 min read
in 2019 and 2020, there was a huge amount of interest in the Strzok-Page texts, but almost no attention was paid to the fact that the texts had been heavily "curated" before reaching the public and that some key topics were missing.

One of the key topics that was missing from the Strzok-Page texts (as curated) was any mention of the interview of Steele's Primary Sub-Source in late January 2017. Given that the FBI had insisted on inclusion of Steele dossier allegations in the Intelligence Community Assessment dated January 6, 2017, this was a central FBI issue at the time and the lack of any reference in the Strzok-Page texts as originally presented is noteworthy.

Readers may recall that the very first tranche of Strzok-Page texts, released in Feb 2018, contained a long gap from mid-December 2017 to mid-May 2018 - from the ICA to appointment of Mueller. This is the very period in which the Crossfire investigation metastasized into the lawfare that undermined the incoming administration. The fact that this period was separately missing from both Strzok and Lisa Page has never been adequately explained. As an aside, it seems odd that the FBI can retrieve emails and texts from targets, but not from their own employees.

Subsequently, a tranche of texts from the missing period was released, but these were also heavily curated and contained no texts that relate to the Primary Subsource.

However, from an an exhibit in the Flynn case , we //KNOW// that, in the late evening of January 13, 2017, Strzok and Page texted about the Primary Subsource, less than two weeks prior to the interview (which began on January 24, 2017). The message wasn't interpretable in real time, but we (Hans Mahncke) were subsequently able to connect it to the Danchenko interview via the reference to the "Womble" law firm, with which Danchenko's lawyer, Mark Schamel, was then associated. We also learned that Schamel was friends with and namedropped Lisa Monaco.

But other than this single excerpt from the Flynn exhibits, I haven't located anything in any of the other Strzok texts than can be plausibly connected to the critical interviews of the Primary Subsource.

I think that there are some Strzok emails from Jan 19 and Jan 22, 2017 that may refer to the pending Primary Subsource interview, that I'll discuss next.

One useful thing that the Weaponization Committee could do would be to publish a complete and unexpurgated set of Strzok-Page texts. Given the interest created by the highly expurgated version, one wonders what an expurgated and unbowdlerized version might yield.courtlistener.com/docket/6234142…Image In the volume of Strzok emails released on October 31, 2019, there was an almost entirely redacted thread dated January 19 and January 22, 2017, a couple of days before the Primary Subsource interview on January 24, 2017, which look to me like they have a good chance of relating to the PSS interview.

The thread began with an email from FBI Office of General Council (OGC) - Sally Anne Moyer or Kevin Clinesmith - to Strzok and a CD subordinate, with a very short subject line.

We know that the PSS interview was lawyered up and carried out under a sweetheart queen-for-a-day deal that was usually only available to highly placed Democrats (Huma Abedin, Cheryl Mills etc.) So involvement of OGC in negotiation of the PSS interview is expected.Image
May 12, 2024 11 tweets 12 min read
in April 2022, Mark Steyn, on his GB News show
,
commented on recently released UK COVID data, claiming "the third booster shots so zealously promoted by the British state, and its groupthink media has failed, and in fact exposed you to significantly greater risk of infection, hospitalization and death."
Steyn showed images of five tables from official statistical publications to support his claims.
In April 2023, Ofcom, which, in addition to its ordinary regulatory role, had taken a special interest in vaccine advocacy, ruled that Steyn's "presentation of UK Health Security Agency data
and their use to draw conclusions materially misled the audience. In breach of Rule 2.2 of the Broadcasting Code" - a very damaging finding that Steyn has appealed.


I haven't followed this case. However, as it happens, I had taken an interest in UK COVID data about 3 months earlier, as it was one of the few jurisdictions that published case and hospitalization rates by vaccination status.


Also, to refresh readers on the contemporary context, early 2022 was the period in which COVID lockdowns and overall alarm began to decline.

At the time, I observed that the UK data showed that the case rate for triple vax was //higher// than among unvax. Three months later, Steyn (as discussed below) made a similar claim, for which he was censured.

Although the UK authorities conspicuously refrained from including this result in their summary or conclusions, they were obviously aware of the conundrum, since their publication included a curious disclaimer by UK authorities that actual case data "should not be used" to estimate vaccine effectiveness. I pointed this odd disclaimer out in this earlier thread, also noting that health authorities in Ontario and elsewhere had previously used such data to promote vaccine uptake and that the reasoning behind this disclaimer needed to be closely examined and parsed.

All of these issues turned up later in the Ofcom decision re Steyn.

Ofcom ruled that Steyn's presentation was "materially misleading" because
(1) he failed to take account of "fundamental biases" in age structure of vax and unvax groups i.e. unvax group was skewed younger, vax group skewed older; and
(2) he failed to include the disclaimer that "This raw data should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness as the data does not take into account inherent biases present such as differences in risk, behaviour and testing in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations”.steynonline.com/mark-steyn-sho…
ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/…
Image in this thread, I'll re-examine Steyn's analysis. I've transcribed all the numbers in the tables and done further calculations to check his claims.

First, case rates. Steyn first showed an important table showing the population by 5-year age group and vax status, observing that the total population of triply vax (boosted) was approximately equal to the population of unboosted, observing that this facilitated comparison. Steyn: "Let's take a look at this, as you can see from a pool of 63 million down at the bottom there, 63 million, there are 32 million who are triple vaccinated. That leaves just under 31 million, who are either double single or unvaccinated. So we have two groups of similar size, 31, 32 million. So it's relatively easy to weigh the merits of the third shot upon Group A versus group B."

He then showed a table of cases by age group and vax status, pointing out that the total number of boosted cases was approximately double the number of unboosted cases: "So the triple vaccinated in March were responsible for just over a million COVID cases and everybody else 475,000 COVID cases. So the triple vaccinated are contracting COVID at approximately twice the rate of the double, single and unvaccinated. Got that? If you get the booster shot, you've got twice as high a chance of getting the COVID. In the United Kingdom, there's twice as many people with the third booster shot who got the COVID, as the people who never had the booster shot."Image
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Apr 19, 2024 4 tweets 2 min read
here is a thread from 2023 in which Eric Ciaramella's "yikes" is placed in a more detailed context.

In this thread, I suggested that the linkage was connected to Jan 21, 2016 meeting of Ukrainian prosecutors with State Dept officials, noting that Jamie Gusack (reporting to Bridget Brink) had distributing the first demand for Shokin's head (Nov 22 TPs)Image
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as pointed out in that thread, Gusack (State Dept) had been coordinating with Ciaramella (NSC) prior to arrival of Ukr prosecutors in Jan 2016, referring to Shokin replacement.

State Dept cited "diamond prosecutors case" as big deal. But what happened to it next? A long story. Image
Mar 17, 2024 15 tweets 6 min read
as observed yesterday, , after 2014 US coup, the tsunami of billion dollar US/IMF loans was associated with unprecedented embezzlement by Ukr oligarchs thru corrupt Ukr banking system. Rescues of failed banks (mostly unnoticed in west) were markers in today's thread, I'll provide a short bibliography of articles (mostly Ukrainian language via google translate) on the Ukr banking corruption crisis that began and exploded after the 2014 US coup, while Biden, Blinken, Nuland et al were running Ukraine
Mar 16, 2024 11 tweets 4 min read
May 25, 2021: US DOJ announced indictment & arrest of Austrian banker Peter Weinzierl


Mar 13, 2024: we learn that Alexander Smirnov was an FBI informant against Weinzierl and had lured Weinzierl to UK on behalf of FBI for arrest justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/t…
archive.is/zO1rt

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the DOJ charges against Austrian banker Weinzierl, filed during first six months of Biden admin, pertained to allegations that payments made via Meinl Bank in Austria by Brazilian construction company Odebrecht were connected to evasion of taxes in Brazil. Image
Mar 3, 2024 6 tweets 2 min read
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, named by NYT as architect of 2014 post-Maidan takeover of Ukrainian intelligence by CIA, is former head of Ukrainian SBU. His comments on Biden corruption deserve attention, but have been ignored.archive.is/zXXQV on October 10, 2019, early in the Trump impeachment saga, Nalyvaichenko published an op ed in Wall St Journal saying "alliance with US depends on answering questions about Bidens and election interference" [by Ukraine] archive.is/wsrjP
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Mar 1, 2024 7 tweets 2 min read
as Svetlana @RealSLokhova explained to us, intelligence fabricators (like Halper) begin by juxtaposing two targets in the same room and using that juxtaposition for their smear.

But, Weiss' Smirnov operation did exactly the opposite. I'll explain. twitter.com/search?lang=en…
Image Smirnov had multiple Burisma contacts in 2017-Jan 2018, that are provable by email and travel records. See diagram below.
But, according to Weiss, instead of attaching narrative to provable meetings, Smirnov attached his narrative to non-existent contacts in 2015-16 and 2019. Image
Feb 26, 2024 21 tweets 8 min read
NYT () has major article on how CIA constructed "a network of spy bases [in Ukraine that] includes 12 secret locations along the Russian border", which @aaronjmate has drawn attention to. A couple of interesting chronology points in today's thread.archive.is/zXXQV first NYT "hero" is Valentyn Nalyvaichenko who, despite Ukraine's constitutional neutrality, on Feb 24, 2014, on first evening of Maidan coup that had overthrown the democratically elected president of Ukraine, as incoming "spy chief", colluded with CIA and MI6 station chiefs Image
Feb 22, 2024 50 tweets 18 min read
Multiple pages of Smirnov Indictment contain a series of texts from May 19, 2020 in VERY large font, which Weiss characterized as "expressing bias against" Biden. Weiss failed to disclose what was happening on May 19, 2020. It was pivotal to subsequent censorship, incl laptop.


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on May 19, 2020, Andrii Derkach and Konstantin Kulyk (the Ukrainian prosecutor who recovered $1.5 billion of embezzled funds - the ONLY major recovery ever accomplished) held press conference that released Biden-Poroshenko tapes. Here is a link to video
Dec 29, 2023 9 tweets 2 min read
@mtaibbi Mifsud was tracked down early on and interviewed by an Italian newspaper. Why do you think that he has ANYTHING relevant to Russiagate? Consider the chronology of key events to see why he doesnt. The DNC emails were not hacked until May 23-25, 2016. @mtaibbi Papadopoulos met Downer on May 10, 2016 and Erika Thompson prob on May 6, 2016. It's far from clear what Papadop actually told Downer on May 10. Durham interviewed Downer and, in ignored section of Durham Report, Downer seems to try to walk back his story.
Dec 15, 2023 9 tweets 2 min read
CNN's article contains some new claims about the binder that are new. While 99% of the binder is provably nothingburger, CNN cites material not previously mentioned. So I should have addressed this before responding in kneejerk way.cnn.com/interactive/20… CNN article itemized contents of the dossier. All of this sounds sonorous, but these are the documents previously released by Grassley, Judiciary etc and are a nothingburger. Image
Nov 24, 2023 18 tweets 6 min read
Climate-interested readers may recall the superb work by @detgodehab demonstrating fatal flaws in the PAGES2K "signal-free" methodology - see

He has also made an important new discovery on Mann et al 1998 - see my article here

climateaudit.org/2023/11/24/mbh… He resolved several longstanding issues: (1) Mann has withheld results of his individual steps (thus frustrating statistical analysis) for more than 25 years. He only archived a splice of the 11 steps. Nature to its discredit acquiesced in Mann's obstruction.
Nov 1, 2023 19 tweets 7 min read
Soros-backed prosecutors in the U.S. have attracted much, mostly adverse, attention. So one would think that any involvement of Soros (and Soros-backed organizations) in firing Ukrainian prosecutor general Shokin would have attracted attention. the November 5, 2020 State Department memorandum on Conditions Precedent for the $1 billion ("third") loan guarantee then under consideration and ultimately controversial contained no mention of firing Shokin.