Rob Lee Profile picture
Senior Fellow @FPRI. Previously @USMC, @ColumbiaSIPA, @CentreAST. Focused on Russian defense policy.

Dec 21, 2020, 221 tweets

A look at the modular block-town (BMG) set up to house up to 250 Russian peacekeepers in Stepanakert that includes a Christmas tree. This is leaps and bounds better than the barracks Russian soldiers lived in 10 years ago. 2816/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…

2817/

2818/

The Azerbaijani MoD has updated its list with the names of 2,802 servicemen who were killed during the war. 2819/
mod.gov.az/en/news/list-o…

Russian Uran-6 mine-clearing UGVs in operation in Karabakh. 2820/
vk.com/mil?z=album-13…

More photos of that destroyed Armenian Elbrus/Scud-B tactical ballistic missile launcher. 2821/
disqus.com/by/cerxar/

Photo of an Azerbaijani soldier with a 2A36 Giatsint-B 152mm artillery piece. 2822/
disqus.com/by/cerxar/

Photos of an Azerbaijani Marauder MRAP, Plasan SandCars, and a soldier with an OSV-96 anti-materiel rifle. 2823/
disqus.com/by/cerxar/

2824/

Video of Azerbaijani Colonel Tehran Mansimov who led a detachment of Azerbaijani SOF from Nakhchivan that reportedly played a key role in the battle for Shusha. 2825/
t.me/military_az/21…

2826/

2827/

Sputnik's Armenia service is saying that, according to unofficial data, the total number of dead or missing Armenian soldiers is more than 3,300. 2828/
ru.armeniasputnik.am/karabah/202012…

2829/

2830/

Video reportedly taken by Natiq Verdiyev, a member of an Azerbaijani SOF unit that took one of the peaks in the Murovdag mountain chain on Sep 27. He reportedly died defending the peak on October 1st. 2831/
t.me/Caucasian_bure…

The Russian engineer officer killed last week while removing mines and UXO in Karabakh, Captain Vitaly Moroz, was a recipient of the Order of Courage and Medal of Zhukov. He previously served in Laos and in Palmyra in 2016. 2832/
t.me/ok_spn/9576

Screenshot of an Azerbaijani BTR-82 from a video that shows the bodies of several Armenian soldiers from the war. 2833/
t.me/kolorit_18/1136

Video reportedly of an Armenian Tor-M2KM air defense system launching a 9M113 missile. The video claims it downed and Azerbaijani UAV. Not sure when this occurred. 2834/
t.me/archiuj/2708

As a number of people have mentioned, the photo at the end of the video doesn't appear to be an Azerbaijani UAV. 2835/

Warning: graphic footage. Video showing Spike NLOS ATGM strikes on an Armenian BM-21 Grad MLRS, 2 T-72 tanks, a D-30 howitzer, and a soldier. The video's description says that they were launched by Azerbaijani helicopters, presumably Mi-17. 2836/

Photo of an Azerbaijani Mi-17 helicopter equipped with a Spike NLOS ATGM launcher and guidance system. 2837/
vk.com/wall-121289356…

The previous video of Spike NLOS strikes was actually all old footage from a video posted by the Azerbaijani MoD on October 25. 2838/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD…

Azerbaijan acknowledged that one of its Su-25 aircraft was shot down by Armenian air defenses on October 4 in over Jabrayil, killing its pilot, Colonel Zaur Nudiraliyev. The article says he previously struck targets in the Agdere and Fizuli regions. 2839/
azertag.az/xeber/Asir_dus…

According to the article, Su-25 pilots (Az pilots reportedly flew >600 sorties) operated at high altitudes to avoid Armenian air defenses, even though Su-25 were designed to operate at low altitudes. This included employing laser-guided bombs. 2840/
haqqin.az/news/197133

2841/

The Azerbaijani MoD confirmed that one Azerbaijani soldier was killed yesterday in a firefight with Armenian soldiers. They claim that the 6 Armenian soldiers were killed. 2842/

2843/

2844/

Russian peacekeepers have begun routine live-fire training at training areas outside of Stepanakert and Martakert. 2845/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…

Turkish sappers worked alongside Azerbaijani sappers in clearing fields in the Aghdam district of mines and UXO. 2846/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD…

Looks like the same loitering munition from the video the Armenian MoD released during the war. 2847/

Turkey’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said that 36 Turkish officers, including one general, will be part of the joint ceasefire monitoring center with Russia in Nagorno-Karabakh. 2848/
tass.com/defense/1241039

So Armenia has some Russian Zala Aero UAVs. There are some rumors circulating that they are also negotiating for Orlan-10 (the Armenian MoD posted a video from the end of the conflict that appeared to be from an Orlan-10 UAV). 2849/

2850/

2851/

Photo of a captured Azerbaijani Plasan SandCat. 2852/
t.me/milinfolive/65…

The Press Secretary of the Armenian Ministry of Health confirmed to RIA Novosti that the death total from the 2nd Karabakh War from the Armenian side has increased to 3,300. 2853/
ria.ru/20210102/karab…

Photo of an Armenian Tor-M2KM SHORAD system reportedly in the vicinity of Hadrut during the war. 2854/
t.me/milinfolive/65…

2855/

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Russian Uran-6 mine-clearing UGVs in operation around Stepanakert. Russia says that its sappers have identified and cleared more than 16k explosive devices in Karabakh. 2858/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…

So I think we can now definitively say that my early belief that Armenia kept its Tor-M2KM SHORAD systems far from the FLOT during this conflict was not accurate. There were clearly a number of them near the front before mid-October. 2859/

Video of a Russian peacekeeper outpost in Karabakh. 2860/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…

Video from New Year’s Eve as residents of Stepanakert remembered those who were lost in the war. 2861/
t.me/togarma301/902

Remarkable footage reportedly from Lachin during the war. It shows 2 Azerbaijani T-72 tanks engaging Armenian infantry in trenches at a range of 100-200 meters. At 00:05 and 00:19 you can see Armenian soldiers fire RPGs before retreating. 2862/
t.me/archiuj/2884

Second half of the video. The Telegram channel claims that this is from a 5-hour battle in which 5 Az tanks were lost and 60-80 Az soldiers were killed. 2863/
t.me/archiuj/2884

One of the lessons about warfare is that the piecemeal use of assets like tanks, artillery, or air defense makes them less effective. Air defense systems are most effective used as a unit with C2 and support, not individual vehicles by themselves. 2864/

2865/

Video of Russian sappers using Uran-6 mine-clearing UGVs to clear UXO in Karabakh. 2866/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…

Armenia's death total from the war is now 3,360. 2867/
kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/35831…

2868/

I believe this is new CCTV footage of one of the Azerbaijani Harop loitering munition strikes on an Armenian S-300 TEL. We’ve seen footage of this strike from the Harop. 2869/
t.me/orduaz/1394

2870/

Screenshots of that Azerbaijani Harop loitering munition striking an Armenian S-300 TEL. 2871/

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2873/

2874/

Video of Russian sappers and an Uran-6 UGV clearing UXO in Karabakh. 2875/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…

2876/

Video of a new Russian peacekeeper modular living facility set up in Karabakh. 2877/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…

2878/

The Azerbaijani MoD announced that 2,841 servicemen were killed during the conflict and were buried and another 64 remain missing. A total of 2,905. 2879/
mod.gov.az/en/news/list-o…

One of the interesting things about the TB2 UCAV is how it was put together largely with commercially available parts, and not components specifically designed for it. It seems many of these companies aren't aware their components are being used. 2880/

2881/

An Azerbaijani Rokestan T-107 107mm MLRS system firing on targets during the conflict. 2882/
t.me/Xebervar/19035

2883/

Video of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh conducting drills. 2884/
t.me/rian_ru/74720

ANNA News video from the last day of the war, showing Harop loitering munitions overhead. They said that Azerbaijan employed a large number of Harops on the final day. 2885/
t.me/anna_news/10734

Photos of Azerbaijani Matador MRAPs damaged during the conflict. 2886/
t.me/milinfolive/65…

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Video of a destroyed Azerbaijani T-90S tank knocked out during the 2nd Karabakh War. 2888/
t.me/ChDambiev/5433

Video of those damaged Azerbaijani Marauder and Matador MRAPs, as well as KamAZ trucks and other equipment. (h/t @Danspiun) 2889/
instagram.com/p/CJ36diWHKKt/…

Photos of that destroyed Azerbaijani T-90S tank. 2890/
t.me/military_arm/5…

Armenian soldiers firing a 152mm D-1 howitzer during the conflict. 2891/
t.me/military_arm/5…

Video of an Armenian T-72 tank firing on Azerbaijani positions on the outskirts of Shosh/Shushikend at the end of the conflict. 2892/
t.me/military_arm/5…

Video of Azerbaijani soldiers in a firefight during the conflict. One of the soldiers was wounded and treated in the full version of the video. 2893/
t.me/kolorit_18/1350

Video of Azerbaijani soldiers passing a destroyed Armenian BMP-2 during the conflict. 2894/
vk.com/military_az?w=…

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Not sure if I’ve see this specific footage before of one of Azerbaijan’s unmanned An-2 aircraft being shot down during the conflict. 2896/
vm.tiktok.com/ZMJTUesj7/

2897/

Video of Azerbaijani soldiers on the move during the conflict. Honestly, they should strive for greater dispersion than this given the terrain. 2898/
t.me/military_az/26…

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Photo of a TOS-1 thermobaric MLRS in Stepanakert reportedly from November. Armenia lost at least one TOS-1A during the war. 2900/
t.me/wargonzo/4275

Azerbaijani soldiers hiking with Konkurs ATGM missiles during the war. 2901/
t.me/military_az/27…

Video of Russian peacekeepers conducting a drill at one of their observation posts in Karabakh. 2902/

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Video of an Armenian Kornet-E ATGM team who fought near Hadrut during the war. 2904/
t.me/military_arm/5…

2905/

According to a US official, "It did appear that there was some movement of some of the Syrian mercenary forces in the direction of the conflict in [Nagorno Karabakh]. Smaller numbers, in the lower hundreds," 2906/
cnn.com/2021/01/22/afr…

And transported by a Russian An-124-100 transport aircraft. 2907/

This video posted by an Azerbaijani Telegram channel says this is a video of Armenian Smerch MLRS strikes on Shusha/Shushi near the end of the war. 2908/
t.me/military_az/27…

Armenia's Minister of Health Anahit Avanesyan told reporters that Armenia's death total from the conflict is at least 3,450. 2909/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…

Video of an Armenian BMP-2 during the battle for Shusha/Shushi. 2910/
t.me/military_arm/5…

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Looks like a destroyed Azerbaijani Plasan SandCat. 2913/
disqus.com/by/cerxar/

And a flipped Azerbaijani Marauder MRAP. 2914/
disqus.com/by/cerxar/

Video of an Armenian T-72 tank during the battle for Shusha/Shushi. 2915/
t.me/military_arm/5…

Video of a Russian peacekeeper observation post in Karabakh. 2916/
vk.com/mil?w=wall-133…

2917/

A row of destroyed Azerbaijani BTR-82A vehicles from the conflict in Karabakh. 2918/
t.me/ChDambiev/5776

Rokestan has reportedly increased the range for new TB2 UCAV MAM-L munitions from 8 to 15km with laser guidance. 2919/
m5dergi.com/savunma-haberl…

Reportedly, a video of an Armenian TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS firing on Azerbaijani targets on Nov 6, presumably near Shusha/Shushi. 2920/
t.me/military_arm/5…

I don’t think I’ve seen this video before that shows an Azerbaijani Spike ATGM (Spike LR I believe) destroying an UAZ Bukhanka during the war. 2921/
t.me/kolorit_18/1475

2921/

Video of Russian officers with Orlan-10 UAVs going through training before deploying as part of the joint Russo-Turkish peacekeeping monitoring center in Azerbaijan. 2922/

Video reportedly of Azerbaijani TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS strike on an Armenian position. 2923/
t.me/MaidenTower/88…

Video of Azerbaijani troops with BTR-82A vehicles during the conflict. 2924/
t.me/kolorit_18/1480

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Video of an Azerbaijani SPIKE ER ATGM strike on an Armenian bunker during the war. 2927/
t.me/azerbaycan62/3…

And an Azerbaijani soldier firing a SPIKE LR ATGM. 2928/
t.me/azerbaycan62/3…

An Azerbaijani TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS system firing on Armenian targets during the conflict. 2929/
t.me/azerbaycan62/2…

Video of an Azerbaijani Buk, presumably Buk-MB. 2930/
t.me/azerbaycan62/2…

Not sure about the full context of this video, but it appear to be an Azerbaijani truck coming under artillery fire during the conflict. 2931/
t.me/shedevrplus/66…

Video of Turkish military personnel at the joint Turkish-Russian monitoring center in Azerbaijan. 2932/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD…

The Russian contingent is also making its way to the joint Turkish-Russian monitoring center. 2933/
t.me/RUS_peacekeepe…

2934/

Photo of a destroyed Azerbaijani Plasan SandCat vehicle. 2935/
t.me/military_arm/5…

Close-up view of that Armenian Repellent C-UAS EW system destroyed by Azerbaijan during the conflict. 2936/
t.me/military_az/28…

If you can read Russian, Lost Armour has a long report on the conflict in Karabakh with a bunch of geolocations. 2937/
lostarmour.info/articles/pervy…

Video that reportedly shows an Azerbaijani armored column destroyed on September 27 near Nyuzgar. I counted 6 destroyed BTR-82A and 3 BMPs. 2938/
t.me/military_arm/5…

Screenshots of those destroyed Azerbaijani BTR-82A and BMPs. 2939/
t.me/military_arm/5…

2940/

Close up video of where that BTR-82A collision with a BMP occurred. 2941/
t.me/kolorit_18/1561

Video of Russian peacekeepers conducting a live fire training exercise outside of Stepanakert with BTR-82A. 2942/
t.me/RUS_peacekeepe…

2943/

The joint Russo-Turkish monitoring center in Azerbaijan has begun employing Forport and Orlan-10 UAVs to monitor the ceasefire in Karabakh. 2944/
vk.com/mil?w=wall-133…

The kind of technology you develop for tench warfare. A Armenian machine gun system with a camera that can be operated from cover reportedly used during the war. 2945/
t.me/militaryxlam/3…

Photo of the system with a 7.62mm PKT machine gun designed to be operated from behind cover. 2946/
t.me/militaryxlam/3…

2947/

Azerbaijani soldiers firing an Konkurs ATGM during the conflict. 2948/
t.me/military_az/29…

Photos of the Russian-Turkish joint ceasefire monitoring center in Azerbaijan. 2949/
Photos: Мурад Оруджев
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…

Photos of Russian and Turkish officers at the peacekeeping monitoring center in Azerbaijan. 2950/
Photos: Мурад Оруджев
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…

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Reportedly, video of the aftermath of a Kornet-E ATGM strike on an Azerbaijani T-72B tank. 2953/
t.me/military_arm/5…

Video of a destroyed Azerbaijani Plasan Sand Cat from the conflict. 2954/
t.me/military_arm/5…

Video of the joint Russian-Turkish ceasefire monitoring center in Azerbaijan. 2955/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…

Video of an Azerbaijani soldier firing a Kornet-E ATGM. 2956/
t.me/azerbaycan62/4…

Video reportedly of two Armenian Su-25 attack aircraft from the conflict. 2957/
t.me/military_arm/5…

2958/

Video of a destroyed Armenian 2S1 Gvozdika howitzer from the conflict. 2959/
#
t.me/azerbaycan62/5…

Video showing Azerbaijani MLRS strikes, likely from TOS-1A, on an Armenian position. 2960/
t.me/azerbaycan62/5…

A Russian Naval Aviation aircraft was used to conduct a prisoner swap yesterday between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 2961/

Video of the joint Azerbaijani-Turkish Winter Exercise 2021. 2962/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD…

Russia is reportedly building new facilities next to the Stepanakert airport. 2963/
t.me/military_arm/5…

Photos of a destroyed Armenian Osa TELAR and one of its 9M33M2 missiles. 2964/
t.me/anna_news/11449

Video of a destroyed Armenian MT-LB with a Zastava M55. 2965/
t.me/azerbaycan62/6…

Video from Hadrut of a destroyed Armenian T-72 tank. 2966/
t.me/azerbaycan62/5…

Looks like the back of an Azerbaijani Khrizantema-S ATGM carrier during the conflict. 2967/
t.me/azerbaycan62/5…

Video of the Armenian-made UAVLAB UL-300 UAV/loitering munition. 2968/
t.me/military_arm/5…

2969/

More photos of those PKT machine gun systems designed to be operated from behind cover. 2970/
t.me/military_arm/5…

Armenian soldiers launching a Konkurs ATGM during the conflict. 2971/
t.me/military_arm/5…

2972/

Photo of a damaged Azerbaijani Orbiter-1K loitering munition from the conflict (the Telegram channel claims it was shot down). 2973/
t.me/military_arm/5…

2974/

An Armenian Shturm-S ATGM launch from the conflict. 2975/
t.me/military_arm/5…

A downed Azerbaijani Sky Striker loitering munition from the conflict. The Telegram channel claims it was brought down by EW systems. 2976/
t.me/military_arm/5…

2977/

An Azerbaijani defense Telegram channel is claiming that Azerbaijan will sign contracts this summer for another $2 billion worth of arms from Israel. 2978/
t.me/military_az/31…

Video of artillery strikes ahead of an Azerbaijani column in Fizuli from the conflict. 2979/
t.me/azerbaycan62/7…

Video of Azerbaijani Plasan SandCat Spear MK2 120mm mortar systems. 2980/
t.me/azerbaycan62/7…

Another video of Azerbaijani Plasan SandCat Spear MK2 120mm mortar systems. 2981/
t.me/azerbaycan62/7…

Photo of an Armenian Osa TELAR damaged during the conflict. 2982/
t.me/azerbaycan62/8…

"Armenia would welcome the expansion of a Russian military base on its territory and the redeployment of some Russian forces closer to its border with Azerbaijan after a conflict with its neighbor last year, its defence minister said on Monday." 2983/
reuters.com/article/armeni…

This is going to anger some people in Moscow. Nikol Pashinyan confirms that Armenia employed Iskander missile systems during the conflict but said that they either didn't explode or only at 10%. 2984/
gazeta.ru/army/news/2021…
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…

Video reportedly of Armenian Colonel Gegham Gabrielyan during the war. 2985/
t.me/military_arm/5…

Other Armenian Telegram channels claim that is footage of the Iskander strike near Shusha/Shushi near the end of the conflict. This wouldn’t be the first time Pashinyan has tried to deflect blame for the result of the war. 2986/
t.me/archiuj/3887
t.me/military_arm/5…

Better video of the alleged Iskander strike on Shusha/Shushi at the end of conflict. This time from an Azerbaijani Telegrak channel that claims Armenia also fired Smerch MLRS on the city during the battle, apparently as a last ditch effort. 2987/
t.me/military_az/32…

Pashinyan fired the Deputy Chief of the Armenian General Staff, Tiran Khachatrian, today after he was asked about Pashinyan's comments about the Iskander. He reportedly laughed and said the comment "wasn't serious". 2988/
kommersant.ru/doc/4704120
tass.ru/mezhdunarodnay…

The Armenian Military Servicemen’s Insurance Fund said that 1,600 Armenian servicemen are considered MIA after the war in Karabakh, though it isn't clear how much overlap there is among these 1,600 with the 3,700 bodies that have been recovered. 2989/
civilnet.am/news/2021/02/2…

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Pashinyan fired a senior defense official yesterday after he laughed at Pashinyan’s criticism of the Iskander missile system. Today, the head of the Armenian General Staff and senior officers called for Pashinyan’s resignation, which Pashinyan has called a military coup. 2991/

Pashinyan has called for his supporters to come to Republic Square where he will speak. Again, this all started with Pashinyan trying to deflect blame about why he didn’t use the Iskander missile system earlier in the conflict that has now led to a political crisis. 2992/

Pashinyan has fired the Chief of the General Staff Onik Gasparyan who called for his resignation. 2993/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…

People are arriving at Republic Square where Pashinyan is set to address the nation this afternoon. 2994/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…

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Pashinyan is leading a group of his supporters. 2997/

Video of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan leading his supporters through Yerevan. 2998/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…

Russia also responded to the Iskander criticism from Pashinyan with the Russian MoD's spokesman, Igor Konashenkov, who said that, according to their information, Armenia never used its Iskander systems during the 2nd Karabakh War. I think they did. 2999/

Viktor Murakhovsky also claimed that Armenia didn't use its Iskander quasi-ballistic missile systems during the conflict. 3000/
tass.com/politics/12598…

Video reportedly of an Azerbaijani helicopter that was shot down or crashed on the first day of the war. 3001/

Now Aliyev is suggesting that Armenia never used the Iskander during the war. 3002/
tass.ru/mezhdunarodnay…

3003/

A new video of an Armenian loitering munition. Clearly, a lesson they learned from the conflict. 3004/
t.me/military_arm/5…

Reportedly, footage of an Armenian Tor-M2KM firing on a target during the war. 3005/
t.me/archiuj/4010

3006/

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Pashiyan's press secretary now says that he was misinformed about the Iskander situation (she didn't specify if this meant the Iskander performed well or wasn't used), and said that Russian weapons are some of the best in the world. 3008/
rbc.ru/politics/01/03…

As a reminder, the Russian MoD responded by stating that the Iskander was never used during the conflict, despite a video of an Iskander launch with people speaking Armenian in Armenian camouflage🤔. Aliyev then said the same, so I guess everyone will toe that line now. 3009/

3010/

Photo of an Armenian Tor-M2KM during the war. 3011/
t.me/military_arm/5…

3012/

Video of Azerbaijani soldiers hiking towards Shusha/Shushi at the end of the war with 82mm mortars and SPG-9. 3013/
t.me/military_az/32…

Hmm, a senior official tells the Middle East Eye that Armenia fired an Iskander at Baku right before the ceasefire, but it was intercepted by an Israeli-made Barak-8. There was a large explosion in Baku right after the ceasefire, but I'm skeptical. 3014/
middleeasteye.net/news/azerbaija…

The Iskander missile has a significantly greater velocity than the Barak-8. The Iskander-E also only has a 280km range, which would mean Armenia would have to launch from deep within Karabakh when TB2 were a constant threat (and Iskander were the most important target). 2015/

Kommersant reported in 2018 that the Iskander systems that Armenia received in 2016 were 500km range Iskander-M with 9M723 missiles, not the export MTCR-compliant Iskander-E, but it isn't clear whether they swapped them for Iskander-E since then. 3016/
kommersant.ru/doc/3736762

Video of an Armenian ATGM launch (looks like a Kornet) from the war. 3017/
t.me/military_arm/5…

Photo of a Kornet-E ATGM launch by an Armenian soldier during the conflict. 3018/
t.me/military_arm/5…

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Looks like another video of thermite employed by Azerbaijan during the conflict. 3029/

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Video of Azerbaijani BTR-82A and BMP-2 from the first day of the war. 3033/
t.me/military_az/33…

Photos of an Armenian loitering munition that was reportedly used during the war with a payload of 10-12kg. 3034/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…

Video of Azerbaijani MLRS fire from the first day of the conflict in the Fizuli region. 3035/
t.me/military_az/33…

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