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Rob Lee Profile picture
Rob Lee
@RALee85
Senior Fellow @FPRI. Previously @USMC, @ColumbiaSIPA, @CentreAST. Focused on Russian defense policy.
308 subscribers
Sep 21 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Russian channels say that Ukrainian UAVs targeted the ammunition depot in Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai.




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 Video of an explosion. 2/
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Sep 10 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Video of an armored column with at least 8 tanks and armored vehicles from the Russian VDV's 51st Airborne Regiment assaulting Snagost in Kursk oblast. It appears Russia was able to get the armored force across the Seym River, despite Ukrainian strikes on the bridges. @Deepstate_UA says the situation has worsened on Ukraine's left flank in Kursk oblast.


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t.me/DeepStateUA/20… More likely that the advance was from Korenevo.
Sep 6 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
"Iran has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, a move that will give Moscow another potent military tool to use in the war against Ukraine and follows stern Western warnings not to provide those arms to Moscow, according to U.S. and European officials." @wstrobel @mgordonwsj @laurnorman
wsj.com/world/u-s-tell…Image "A U.S. official confirmed the missiles 'have finally been delivered'...

The shipment involves a couple of hundred short-range ballistic missiles, according to Western officials. Iran has a variety of such weapons, with a range stretching up to around 500 miles.

'This is not the end,' a senior European official said, noting that Iran is expected to keep weapons flowing into Russia"
Sep 3 • 21 tweets • 13 min read
Another Ukrainian FPV employing some form of incendiary munition on a tree line by Ukraine’s 42nd Mechanized Brigade.
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Videos from Ukraine's 116th and 60th Mechanized Brigades of FPVs with incendiary munitions. 2/


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Sep 2 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I think Biddle is right that authorizing the use of longer-range strikes into Russia wouldn't be decisive on its own, but I also think this is an unfair burden to apply to the delivery of weapons or restrictions. People often say sanctions are ineffective if they fail to deter or stop a war, but they can still make it more difficult for the target to wage that war. Most of Russia's Su-34 glide bomb carriers are no longer operated from airbases within ATACMS or Storm Shadow range; however, the S-300/S-400 that struck Kharkiv yesterday would be within range of ATACMS, and air defenses have a priority ATACMS target in occupied areas. One of the main benefits of allowing HIMARS' GMLRS strikes into Russian territory after the Kharkiv offensive began was that Kharkiv gained a reprieve from S-300/S-400 strikes. It seems that is no longer the case.
Aug 22 • 23 tweets • 20 min read
Videos of Ukrainian air strikes in Kursk oblast on bridges and a platoon position with GBU-39 small diameter bombs.
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Aug 16 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Video from the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces of the first hours of the Kursk operation on August 6 with MICLICs breaching Russian fortifications, Strykers and tanks, and artillery and aviation support. The video also shows an armored bridge layer and other engineering vehicles.
t.me/AFUStratCom/25… Video of the breach on August 6 with a UR-77 MICLIC.
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Aug 6 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Some early thoughts about this operation. The most important factor in the war right now is Russia's manpower and force availability advantage, in particular with infantry. That is the primary reason why Ukraine is struggling to hold back Russian advances in Donetsk oblast. Russia's Kharkiv offensive further stretched Ukraine's reserves, which means Ukrainian commanders have limited forces to reinforce units that are under pressure or to stop breakthroughs. The situation on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk fronts is serious. The war has not seen large swings of the front line since 2022, but Russia's advances on the Pokrovsk front over the past three weeks have been relatively rapid for the 2023-2024 period. So the question is how this operation will affect the fighting elsewhere and whether these forces could have been employed more effectively in Donetsk oblast. 2/
Aug 6 • 109 tweets • 49 min read
The Russian MoD and several Russian telegram channels say that Ukraine has conducted an advance into Kursk oblast today, including with elements from Ukraine's 22nd Mechanized Brigade and possibly Strykers from the 82nd Air Assault Brigade.





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Jul 9 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
Ukraine's 24th Mechanized Brigade announced that it is forming a battalion composed of convict volunteers.
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Image Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanized Brigade is also standing up a battalion composed of convicts. 2/
May 31 • 38 tweets • 36 min read
Videos of Russian UAVs bringing down Ukrainian night bomber / baba yaga UAVs.
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Videos of Russian UAVs ramming Ukrainian night bomber / baba yaga UAVs. 2/
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May 31 • 54 tweets • 28 min read
Video of a Ukrainian FPV taking down a Russian ZALA 421-16 UAV. Sternenko says one of his FPVs took down an Orlan UAV as well but these cases are rare.

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May 12 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Looks like Sergei Shoigu is being replaced. Putin has nominated Andrei Belousov as the next Minister of Defense.
tass.ru/politika/20775… Shoigu will be replacing Nikolai Patrushev as Secretary of the Security Council. 2/

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May 3 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
When we evaluate how weapons perform, it is important to note the conditions in which they operate. Abrams were committed into the fight this winter at a time when Ukraine had a lack of infantry as well as mines, ATGMs, air defense, and artillery ammunition. This may seem bizarre from the outside, but Ukraine often employs tanks in a manner to compensate for a lack of infantry or ammunition for other systems because those are the conditions they face. If you don't have enough artillery or ATGM ammunition, you may bring up a tank or Bradley to engage Russian armor or infantry instead. This could involve placing an Abrams or Bradley at greater risk than you would like, but these are the organic assets that the 47th Mechanized Brigade had, and they come with a different supply of ammunition.
Apr 26 • 25 tweets • 8 min read
Some thoughts about the supplemental bill. This is good news, but it will primarily help Ukraine defend in 2024 and into 2025. Russia will still likely make further gains this year, and it doesn't fix all of Ukraine's issues. It should be seen as one part of a long-term strategy. Ukraine has had three main problems since Russia seized the initiative in October: ammunition, manpower, and fortifications. Ukraine is making progress building fortifications and multiple defensive lines, but defenses on many of the key parts of the front are still underdeveloped, contributing to Russian advances. 2/
Apr 22 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
Another video from Ukraine’s 63rd Mechanized Brigade of a kamikaze UGV with explosives used to target a Russian defensive position.
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Apr 21 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Russian sources are saying that Ukraine is dropping caltrops on roads to damage their vehicles' wheels. When the vehicles stop, they are then targeted by artillery or FPVs.
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Image Video from Madyar showing them being dropped from UAVs. 2/
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Apr 18 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
Video of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating close to Chasiv Yar. A clear sign of a lack of Ukrainian air defense ammunition.

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Videos posted over the past ten days by a Russian Telegram channel associated with the VDV’s 106th Airborne Division of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating in the Bakhmut - Chasiv Yar area. 2/



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Apr 15 • 33 tweets • 15 min read
Video of a Russian assault group from the 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade's Zarya battalion that uses motorcycles in their assaults on the Siversk front. The bikes allow them to reach trenches faster and they are harder to spot. Their assaults are done in coordination with artillery and FPVs.
vk.com/bo_reserve?w=w… The battalion posted a video a few days ago showing members of the assault group during an assault with motorcycles. 2/
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Mar 30 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Both Russian UGVs were struck by FPVs from Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade.
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Mar 18 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This was an interesting article about how Ukraine reopened grain exports by putting Russian ports at risk, particularly given Ukraine's current campaign targeting Russian oil refineries. 2/