Prof. Christina Pagel - @chrischirp.bsky.social Profile picture
Prof Operational Research @UCL_CORU, health care, women in STEM. Member of @independentsage. chrischirp at bluesky. https://t.co/nNW5zMeVmA

Jan 3, 2021, 9 tweets

THREAD - Covid-19 in England.

Things are going from very bad to much worse.

Here is where we are in 9 tweets. 1/9

Cases: over *70,000* people who were tested in England on 29th December tested positive. This is *not* because there were more tests on that day.

It *is* 4 days after Christmas though, around when people who caught Covid on Christmas Day might start getting symptoms. 2/9

The case data is very jumpy for the last week because of big drops in tests over Xmas and report lags. But the positivity rate from tests is shooting up - *everywhere*.

London has been in Tier 4 for 2 weeks.

Biggest worry: there is *no sign* that tier 4 is working. 3/9

There are now almost 25,000 people with Covid-19 in English hospitals - 32% more than the April peak. 4/9

Admissions are also now at April peak levels - *on top* of this much higher occupancy.

*and* cases are *still* going up which they were not at April peak.

We are still, at best, 2 weeks from peak - and that's *if* decisive action is taken *now*. 5/9

Admissions are rising everywhere. Steeper than they did in the autumn. No sign of slowdown - even in London, 2 weeks after tier 4 started.

I can't tell you how scary I find this. We are not even slowing this thing down - let alone reversing it. 6/9

In London, hospital admissions have doubled about every 2 weeks since beginning of December. Cases doubled in the 2 weeks to 29th Dec (much of which while in Tier 4).

People will *keep arriving* in *greater numbers* at London hospitals that are already fuller than in April. 7/9

Cases in England are *more than twice as high* as they were before November lockdown. The number of peple in hospital is *much higher*, admissions are almost at their highest level and increasing rapidly.

Why is the government doing literally nothing?! 8/9

We need lockdown, closed (in person) schools & unis for Jan, much better support for isolation and ramp in vaccination. we need it now, today.

Watch @GabrielScally lay out what needs doing here
independentsage.org/gabriel-scally… 9/9

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