An incomplete list of things that one may encounter along the way if one plans on owning a great consumer company over the long-term - 5 to 10+ years
(1/x)
Spiking CAC that makes near term unit economics/transactions appear far less attractive
Rapidly decelerating growth rates that make high market penetrations appear near impossible
Perception of a soon to be high market penetration due to high trial usage/churn despite a current low # of users/customers
A completely unjustifiable equity price based on traditional and non-traditional valuation techniques that will challenge the notion of holding for the long term
A CFO and/or other executive changes leading to the notion of ‘why would so and so depart if the upside was still so attractive’
A quarterly miss that produces a peak to trough correction in the share price of 40%+
Your original financial model breaking/losing relevance as the business evolves to something else
Insiders selling in size at prices that are attractive to you as a buyer
Data/credit card panels capturing a definite slowdown in the business ahead of earnings
An attractive, highly justifiable valuation that will be terribly difficult to pull the trigger on due to a chorus of doubts from the sell side and fear of being able to acquire the shares at an even lower price tomorrow
(eom)
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