Mixing it up a bit with an old school/fintwit 1.0 thread on a small cap challenger co that I believe has some real potential. This is an incomplete thread but here’s the punchline: Remitly has a shot at being the booking .com of the digital remittance space $RELY (1/x) Upfront I will say that my interest in Remitly is based on what the company may be able to achieve over the long-term. I don’t have a strong opinion of where the shares may trade in the near-term. Small cap growth equities are risky by nature.

Most of big tech isn't pushing as hard as Meta for real efficiency gains and a faster pace of innovation as of yet. Arguably, PayPal is one that is and given all the changes it’s undergoing, now is the perfect time for the company to upgrade some of the metrics it reports. $PYPL It's time to break out core consumer check-out services from other services. The overarching goal should be to share separate results for branded check-out services and Braintree (BT) with a high level of clarity - revenue and operating profit pre-shared corporate overhead.

The current tech wreck & discussion on profitability, SBC etc. reminded me of a situation in the aftermath of the 2000 bubble burst where a portfolio company did something fairly radical w/ its comp plan in order to incentivize senior management to right size operations. (1/few) The company was profitable but under-earning due to excessive overhead and the funding of money losing businesses whose prospects were generally questionable.

The IPO was priced at $15 not long ago & now the shares are at $4. There's a promising business or brand and the balance sheet is in good shape. The company has a low burn or maybe even makes some money but no one seems to care in this market. #SMidOrphans (1/x) There's an increasingly large class of broken IPO SMID orphans. The speed at which companies have joined this club recently could give any CEO or board whiplash but they would do well to learn a few things as quickly as possible...for everyone's sake.

Once again judged the annual @BinghamtonSOM stock picking contest with @VD718 and a few others. Last year the winning pitch was a short recommendation of $CHGG which turned out to be spot on. This year I thought I’d share the finalists picks upfront. The top three teams recommended as follows: short $CALM, long $CROX & long $AXON.

Forthcoming tech activism/suggestivism will be centered on getting management teams & boards to be in sync with current economic realities & the new demands of the marketplace. (1/few) Much of the focus will be on encouraging organizations to alter their trajectories to breakeven/profitability/substantial profitability.

When I was trying to learn about Netflix in 2003/2004, I was fortunate to spend a fair amount of time with the CFO at the time, Barry McCarthy. Of course he was terribly smart, super competitive and a rational strategic thinker. My favorite feature was his wicked sense of humor. If you asked him a dumb question about the business then he was sure to let you know that you did.

A little history: The period of 2000 to 2003 did not only correct the vast excesses of the 1999 dot com boom, it also served as a launching pad for immense value creation for well positioned business models and exceptionally talented CEOs. One could focus on and profit from the demise and/or decline of pets.com, theGlobe.com and yahoo etc. but there was a lot value to be had in searching for structural winners poised to benefit from the return to rationality.

I've tweeted before about the only tequila pure play in the world - Becle which trades $CUERVO on the BMV. At a recent M$44 the valuation is wildly un-demanding for business of this caliber. Add in a free call which I'll explain below and this one really looks mispriced. Becle derives most of profits in the US via Proximo Spirits in Jersey City. It is family controlled (~15% floats) and loaded with some great brands such as Jose Cuervo, 1800, Maestro Dobel and Bushmills. Reserva De La Familia Extra Anejo is my personal favorite.

Brazilian delivery star iFood looks like a real gem. Its high rate of growth on larger & larger numbers is wildly impressive to say the least. This is an incredible asset for $TKWY to be sitting on. Takeaway's stake is almost certain to further appreciate over the next 2 to 3 years. The combination of a lower Takeaway share price against the rising value of iFood creates increasingly important optionality for the company.

$SFIX...there were some interesting tidbits in here... open.spotify.com/episode/3dm1O5… "...Stitch Fix has an amazing culture, there's a lot of focus on authenticity, inclusivity, kindness, it's like a pretty deeply vulnerable culture..."

Hawkshaw Special Situations Research by Kian Ghazi @hawkshawlp does deep dives on select equities often times on so called 'battleground' names. This past week it put out a very interesting piece on $SFIX. I won't go into the details but the report had some very interesting work around key touch points including CACs, churn, LTVs and how direct buy + previews may improve returns on ad spend.

Some more thoughts on $SFIX's evolving consumer proposition and how it's army of stylists may be an increasingly valuable asset.

#StylistsAreTheNewCAC

👚👗👖➡️🎁 Stitch has approximately 6,000 stylists on the payroll which probably costs something like $150 million annually. This is a relatively large expense for the company of this size.

Some more thoughts on $SFIX and its evolving consumer service - no views on the share price in the short-term.

(1/x) Stitch Fix's current 'no look' fix business in the U.S. has grown quite large despite addressing a fairly small portion of the overall apparel market.

Trying to see around the corner is never easy but the set up for gen 1 food delivery marketplaces in 2021/2022 seems pretty attractive.

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(1/x) The full/partial unwind of virus life behavior may make marketplace’s relative growth rates much more attractive vs the past year.

Over the years, I've been involved in some real battleground names where the debate over the company's prospects was quite intense to say the least.

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(1/x) With some of these companies, I, and other longs, have been opposite some highly reputable, brand name funds.

I’m going to add a few more to this list.

https://twitter.com/mario_cibelli/status/1360645644713558021

A 'contrarian' sell side analyst with a target price 35%+ below current prices

Some thoughts on a narrow topic: What $SFIX's service may look like as it continues to evolve. As usual I have ABSOLUTELY no view on short-term results or quarterly expectations.

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(1/x) My real interest lies in what the company might look like over the next 5 to 10 years. On that basis, Stitchfix remains a very interesting company to analyze.

My instinct is that the market is currently setting business values that may be planting the seeds for the next round of consolidation in global delivery.

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(1/x)

https://twitter.com/mario_cibelli/status/1336165838919962624

Among other things, business fundamentals and expectations combine to imprecisely drive share prices/asset values. In turn, those same share prices/values can also shift fundamental opportunity sets h/t reflexivity.

I confess I find cryptos - digital scarcity/placeholders/uniques - utterly fascinating.

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(1/x) I'm not an expert by any means but I think it’s possible that, like the internet, digital placeholders have a profound effect on the world and potentially rearrange winners & losers in select ecosystems.

An incomplete list of things that one may encounter along the way if one plans on owning a great consumer company over the long-term - 5 to 10+ years

(1/x) Spiking CAC that makes near term unit economics/transactions appear far less attractive