I literally pay for a NYMag subscription just to read @EricLevitz (really!) so am not dunking but truly asking: did I miss the data that enshrined "Hispanic voters polarized by education in 2020" as confirmed fact rather than loose hypothesis? nymag.com/intelligencer/…
It's clear Hispanic voters on aggregate in 2020 voted *more like* non-college non-Hisp white voters & *less like* college educated nHw than they had in 2016: but of course that's not the same as the claim that *among* Hispanc voters it was non-college who swung hardest fr 2016-20
And the specifics of where Hispanic vote shifts (visible everywhere nationally, agreed) were *strongest* are very hard to square w/"educational polarization" as descriptor. So, eg👇, pro-Trump swing esp strong in FL, & esp strong among Vzlans & Colombians nymag.com/intelligencer/…
55% of Venezuelans in the US have college degrees: it is, by far, the highest rate of any Latin American origin group. Colombians are also far above the median: at 33% w/ a bachelors' degree they are just behind Argentines & tied for third w/Panamanians pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019…
Similarly & relatedly FL has, by far, the Hispanic population with the highest level of college attainment. Were Latino voters polarizing by education the pro-Trump Hispanic swing should have been *weakest* in FL: & stronger (=more pro GOP) in AZ than TX👇 edtrust.org/wp-content/upl…
On separate question of how "socialism!" played see interesting data here👇: again, overall picture is inconsistent with argument that prior beliefs re socialism were somehow antecedent driver (rather than post hoc explanation) of Colombian+broader shift
OK have dug deep into the Pew time machine & partially answered my own Q: yes polling fr 2016 suggests educational polarity among Latino voters reversed in 2020. Interesting! And makes both the GOP FL success story, & the AZ Dem results, even more striking pewresearch.org/hispanic/2016/…
You won't be shocked to hear I think there's a longterm local infrastructure & relational organizing story we need to take on board here...
This Oct 2020 report fr @JaxAlemany on Latino outreach in PA is definitely worth revisiting: incl quote from @MariaTeresa—"Progressives have a tendency to pack their bags and wait until the next cycle", + Matt Schlapp sounding like he's read his Alinsky👇 washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
wait whoa this just in from @dhopkins1776 & the plot thickens. Panel data fr 2016-18 shows Hispanic respondents with less education moving *toward* the Democrats in those years, while those w more education shifted toward Republicans 👀
More interesting data incoming on this question. CCES heard from (thanks to @A_agadjanian). If there's a multi cycle trend of educational polarization among Latino voters here, you sure have to squint hard to see it?
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