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Math Biologist. Author. Books - "Math(s) of Life and Death" Order "How to Expect the Unexpected" now - https://t.co/weTwI4ypM0

Apr 2, 2021, 10 tweets

No @IndependentSage briefing today, but I don't want anyone to go into withdrawal though lack of data so here's a short thread on cases and positivity rates.

Overall it's good news.
Positivity rates low and falling or flat across all nations and most of local authorities.

Cases per 100K per week have plateaued for Scotland, England and Northern Ireland with slight falls in Wales.
This is good news, especially after some slight rises previously.

Positivity rates look even more encouraging.

All nations are well below the 5% threshold and continuing to decrease week on week.

Looking more closely at England, all regions seem to be quite flat in terms of case numbers, but still way down from where we were at the start of January.

The North East has seen the biggest week on week drop in cases per 100K.
Yorkshire and Humber saw a slight rise and remain at over 100 cases per 100K.

Regional positivity rates show a slightly different picture most regions are flat or falling with the exception of the North East.

Positivity has increased in the North East, potentially suggesting something strange going on with testing?
Most other regions have seen falls with the exception of Yorkshire and the Humber whose positivity rate remains the highest of any English region.

Just under half (139 out of 315) of English LTLAs showed slight week on week increases in cases per 100K albeit from low levels. This means most fell.

Most Scottish, Welsh and NI LTLAs showed slight week on week reductions in cases per 100K.

A similar story for positivity rates.
117 out of 315 English local authorities' positivity rates increased week on week albeit from low levels. Again positivity decreased in most regions.

Most Scottish and Welsh LAs showed decreases week on week and all NI LAs decreased.

Over all it looks like a positive picture with cases flat or falling in all regions both in terms of absolute numbers and in terms of positivity rates.
As always, huge thanks to Bob Hawkins for his help with preparing the charts.

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