From @chrischirp.bsky.social's excellent substack:

"The overall conclusion is that the scale of deaths in the first wave could have been much lower and the devastating second wave could have been largely avoided."



1/13christinapagel.substack.com/p/the-uk-covid… @chrischirp "Tens of thousands of deaths could have been prevented. Mod 2 report lays out the missed opportunities, delayed decisions, a refusal to learn, a downplaying or failure to believe advice from SAGE, and a general unseriousness on the part of government"

2/13covid19.public-inquiry.uk/documents/modu…

Science is under siege. Political forces are undermining expertise, dismantling research institutions, and replacing evidence based policymaking with ideology.

This is a global crisis.

🧵
1/31 The covid-19 pandemic underscored the importance of scientific independence.

While vaccines, diagnostics, and therapeutics saved many lives, governments that ignored expert advice and downplayed the threat allowed lives to be lost.

2/31

Today the Royal Society will meet to discuss “Fellows’ behaviour”. Without doubt the fellow they will primarily be discussing is Elon Musk.
The behaviour may range from his public dissemination of unfounded conspiracy theories to his attacks on the science
🧵
1/38 Musk is also an important figure (some would argue the most important) within a US administration that is laying siege to science and to scientific inquiry itself.
2/38
researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-world-…

The populist right is damaging US science.

Here's what I think we should be doing to ensure that the UK (and indeed other non-US countries) does not suffer the same fate.

🧵

1/37 The United States is currently witnessing an unprecedented assault on its scientists and scientific institutions, driven by populist agendas that prioritise ideology over evidence.

These orchestrated attacks threaten the foundations...

2/37

aaup.org/report/nationa…

Silence will not shield scientists from the consequences of an increasingly hostile political landscape.

UK and other non-US scientists must act to support our US colleagues.

Here's what I think we should be doing...

🧵

1/35 Science thrives on collaboration and openness.

The people who practice science are committed to seeking truth and combatting falsehoods.

2/35

Fiona Fox’s recent article in Research Professional News cautions that expelling Elon Musk from the Royal Society could undermine public trust in science.
I disagree...
🧵
1/25
researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-vie… I think that this perspective overlooks the critical role that scientific institutions play in upholding ethical standards and defending the integrity of science, especially at times when science and scientists are subject to threats and intimidation from political institutions
2

After hearing some underwhelming testimony last month at the #COVIDInquiry on the use of respirators, @trishgreenhalgh and I decided to write a rapid response to the @bmj_latest to set the record straight.
Here's what we wrote...
1/15
bmj.com/content/386/bm… "Respirators outperform surgical masks; fit-testing is desirable but not essential"

Professor Susan Hopkins (UK Covid Inquiry, 18th September 2024) claimed that evidence for the superiority of respirators (which are made to an industry standard and designed to fit ...
2/15

As the UK’s general election campaign enters its final few weeks, we’ve already seen numerous examples of dodgy declarations, substandard stats and graph gaffs.

So I thought I'd write about the importance of numeracy to the functioning of democracy.
🧵

https://x.com/FullFact/status/1801343764960547289

We can expect to see more questionable claims in the run up to polling day.
The factor that all these all these missteps have in common is that they involve the manipulation or misrepresentation of numerical quantities.

https://x.com/FullFact/status/1802685611138023631

Politicians will get away with the things we forget, so here is a list of things to remember about the government's record on covid:
1. Over 230,000 died from covid in the UK.
2. They partied while we weren't allowed to see our loved ones. Thousands died alone.
... 3. They were too late taking action in spring 2020.
4. They delayed again in autumn of 2020.
5. They waited until they had no other choice in winter of 2020/2021.
6. They funnelled cash to their mates through the VIP lane.
7. PPE provided to our healthcare workers was inadequate.

A water company released sewage into the stream that runs into the beach where we were holidaying. I didn’t like the idea of swimming in the sea after that, so I tried to sue to water company for spoiling our holiday. This is what happened…
1/21 First up, cards on the table, I am a keen outdoor swimmer. I swim with a group of friends most weeks in our local stretch of the Thames. Come rain or shine, winter or summer, there are usually at least two of our number bracing the river waters north of Oxford.
2/21

It's π-day (3/14 in US date format) - the international day of mathematics.
But people often ask me why π is important. Why do we care about calculating more and more digits?
In short, "What is the point of π?"
Well, here is the answer...
1/ 3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937510...
The number of digits after the decimal place in pi extend off into the distance (these are the first 50).
Truncating π's decimal expansion after the second decimal place (3.14) is sufficient to specify the date of pi day.

It's leap day - February 29th.

It's a special day - the rarest in our calendar.

But do you know why we have leap days at all and how often exactly they come around?

Read on to find out...
1/21 This exceptional day has been associated with weird and wonderful traditions over the years: from the wildly outdated notion that 29th of February is the only day when women can propose to men, to the Leaper Year festival held in Anthony, New Mexico.
2/21
vox.com/2016/2/29/1113…

Main points from the ONS/UKHSA Winter Infection survey.
TL-DR: There has been an increase in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England and Scotland during the 2 weeks leading up to 13 December 2023.
1/8
gov.uk/government/sta… In England and Scotland, the estimated prevalence on 13 December was 4.2% (95% Credible intervals (CrI): 3.3%, 5.4%), equivalent to around 2,549,000 individuals (95% CrI: 1,996,000 to 3,236,000) being infected or around 1 in 24 people (95% CrI: 1 in 30 to 1 in 19).
2/8

On Newsnight I was asked what I thought the biggest mistake Johnson's government made during the acute phase of the pandemic.
I only got to give one answer, but if I'd had time I would have said:
1. Johnson missed 5 COBRA meetings. Didn’t chair his first one until early March.
🧵 Missing those COBRA meetings meant he was not up-to-date with the latest information he required.

2. SAGE warned against physical contact in early March – next day Johnson was boasting about shaking hands with patients (including covid patients) in hospital.

A huge error.

The Government’s CSA during the acute phase of the pandemic, Sir Patrick Vallance, gave evidence at the #CovidInquiry last week
Most of the news that filtered out was focussed on political failures like Eat out to Help out - but should we have been focussing more on science...
🧵 The headline-grabbing story was probably Vallance's testimony that SAGE was not consulted about the now infamous ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme.
2/25
bylinetimes.com/2023/11/23/eat…

I went outside to top up the chicken feed yesterday afternoon.
We’re usually pretty careful about putting the lid on the food bin, but I figured it had been left off by accident.
I was about to reach in and grab the scoop, but I looked in the bin first… And this is what I saw.

I freaked out. At first glance it looked like the food had grown mouldy, having been exposed to the rain, but when I looked more carefully I could see it was moving almost imperceptibly.

A short thread on covid hospitalisations in the UK.
TL;DR Admissions continue to increases across England and but it’s a mixed picture in Scotland.
🧵
1/11 Hospital admissions have now increased for the past three weeks -- increased by 12% week on week this week (was 25% increase last week).

A short thread on covid hospitalisations in England.
TL;DR - Although hospital admissions have been very low over the summer, they have risen significantly in the last few weeks.
1/6 Hospital admissions in England increased substantially this week - up 30% week on week.
2/6

There was something strange about the recent Women's World Cup in Australia.

If you were paying close attention, you might have spotted it.

Many of the international squads had players who were born on the same day of the year – they shared birthdays.

What was going on?
🧵 In maths there is a counterintuitive phenomenon known as "the birthday problem".
The problem is usually phrased along these lines: "How many people do you need to have at a gathering before the probability of at least two people sharing a birthday rises above 50%?"

It finally happened.
After 3 and a half years of avoiding it I finally got covid for the first time...
... and it was awful.
🧵 I haven't been very active on here for a while because I've been feeling so crappy.
Even relatively simple tasks (that I would previously have taken for granted) like reading have seemed like a lot of effort.

Phase one of the Covid inquiry has begun in earnest.
Its remit is pandemic preparedness.
The guiding ethos is to learn lessons from the mistakes made in preparing for the Covid pandemic so that we are better prepared for the next one...
🧵
1/23 The inquiry shares this premise with my book How to Expect the Unexpected. My focus in the book is to highlight the mistakes people have made when making predictions in the past...
2/23
geni.us/KitYatesBooks