Thread by @DrTracyTaylor

@APDillon_ @andrewbostom @PeteKaliner @TracyBethHoeg @jonpsanders @JohnLockeNC 1/ NC SC-2 Trends thru 3/16/21 including current data on graphs to reflect trends. NCDHHS modifies dashboard w/# of tests/deaths (⬇️ incid); adds death data back to 6/20, no longer updates on wkends.

2/ Overall incidence ⬇️ to 8.17% (⬇️ 0.09%). Overall incidence has never been at 5% since testing began; no statistically significant change since the mask mandate.

3/ Daily incid = 2.6-10.0% (10.0% = reporting inconsistency; see graph) over last 14 days. Avg daily incid on 3/16 is 3.54%. Avg daily incid each month:
May: 6.8% Nov: 7.4%
June: 7.6% Dec: 10.9%
July: 8.1% Jan: 12.0%
Aug: 6.9% Feb: 7.9%
Sept: 5.7% Mar: 5.2%
Oct: 6.4%

4/ Avg wkly incid =5.4%. After mask mandate, avg wkly incid ⬆️ despite mask compliance ~90%. Avg wkly incid last 3 wks =5.5%; each month:
May: 6.9% Nov: 6.8%
June: 7.4% Dec: 10.59%
July: 8.11% Jan: 12.4%
Aug: 7.4% Feb: 8.6%
Sept: 5.7% Mar: 5.5%
Oct: 6.3%

5/ Rolling 14-day incid avg =5.2%. Rolling 14-day avg monthly:
May: 6.7% Nov: 6.9%
June: 7.6% Dec: 10.2%
July: 7.9% Jan: 12.4%
Aug: 7.3% Feb: 8.9%
Sept: 5.9% Mar: 5.6%
Oct: 6.2%

6/ # active cases (22,594) ⬇️d 9th consec wk. Feb cases ⬇️; consistent w/flu & PNA “seasons.” Hosp caseloads normalized. Avg # new cases/day each mo:
May: 583 Nov: 2996
June: 1164 Dec: 5646
July: 1859 Jan: 7032
Aug: 1498 Feb: 3686
Sept: 1352 Mar: 1663
Oct: 2065

7/ 6. # of March tests = 1,023,676. NCDHHS back fills test data; on 4/1 tests can be back filled from 3/1 to present.
May: 271,133 Nov: 1,242,860
June: 348,174 Dec: 1,673,424
July: 714,289 Jan: 1,896,598
Aug: 699,911 Feb: 1,330,547
Sept: 773,697
Oct: 1,037,783

8/ % recovered =96.1%, % active cases =2.5%, CFR =1.3%. Mortality rate ⬆️ to 0.114%. Avg # deaths/day =9.71 on 3/16:
3/20: 0.80 10/20: 28.9
4/20: 14.4 11/20: 36.4
5/20: 18 12/20: 63.7
6/20: 15.3 1/21: 90.4
7/20: 21.06 2/21: 37.4
8/20: 27.77 3/1-16/21: 15.57
9/20: 26.6

9/ 0-17 & 18-24 cohorts, where 16 deaths reported out of 230,256 total cases (CFR = 0.00695%) since 6/15. Conversely, while 15% of NC COVID cases (132,406) in 65-75+ cohort, 83% of all NC COVID deaths (10,032) are in this cohort; of these 43.8% have been in congregate settings.

10/ Hospitalizations reporting changed on 11/13, ⬇️ by 73 patients to 1010. NOTE: on 3/28/21, ventilator, ICU, & inpatient available capacity well within normal limits and have been for ~5 weeks. Will no longer report available capacity unless I see it trending negatively again.

11/ % change in active cases and tests ⬇️ for 9th consecutive week; incidence slightly ⬆️ but not statistically significant. That’s a very good sign!

12. WCPSS reported 57 cases 3/11-17 (39 students/18 staff). Private/charter schools report 67 cases (57 students/10 staff).

12/ Covid cases per cohort ⬆️‘d across some age groups (not stat sig) this wk. Main cohort drivers of Covid transmission are 25-49, 50-64, & then 18-24 yrs. On 3/16, there were 6960 active cases in 50-64 + 25-49 cohort. There are 3445 total active cases in 2-24 cohort in ALL NC.

13/13 Overall, average daily/rolling 14-day incidence, active cases, hospitalizations, daily cases, and deaths/day all ⬇️. Hospital capacity is no longer an issue.