Tracy Taylor, DPT Profile picture
Apr 2, 2021 14 tweets 6 min read Read on X
@APDillon_ @andrewbostom @PeteKaliner @TracyBethHoeg @jonpsanders @JohnLockeNC 1/ NC SC-2 Trends thru 3/16/21 including current data on graphs to reflect trends. NCDHHS modifies dashboard w/# of tests/deaths (⬇️ incid); adds death data back to 6/20, no longer updates on wkends.
2/ Overall incidence ⬇️ to 8.17% (⬇️ 0.09%). Overall incidence has never been at 5% since testing began; no statistically significant change since the mask mandate.
3/ Daily incid = 2.6-10.0% (10.0% = reporting inconsistency; see graph) over last 14 days. Avg daily incid on 3/16 is 3.54%. Avg daily incid each month:
May: 6.8% Nov: 7.4%
June: 7.6% Dec: 10.9%
July: 8.1% Jan: 12.0%
Aug: 6.9% Feb: 7.9%
Sept: 5.7% Mar: 5.2%
Oct: 6.4%
4/ Avg wkly incid =5.4%. After mask mandate, avg wkly incid ⬆️ despite mask compliance ~90%. Avg wkly incid last 3 wks =5.5%; each month:
May: 6.9% Nov: 6.8%
June: 7.4% Dec: 10.59%
July: 8.11% Jan: 12.4%
Aug: 7.4% Feb: 8.6%
Sept: 5.7% Mar: 5.5%
Oct: 6.3%
5/ Rolling 14-day incid avg =5.2%. Rolling 14-day avg monthly:
May: 6.7% Nov: 6.9%
June: 7.6% Dec: 10.2%
July: 7.9% Jan: 12.4%
Aug: 7.3% Feb: 8.9%
Sept: 5.9% Mar: 5.6%
Oct: 6.2%
6/ # active cases (22,594) ⬇️d 9th consec wk. Feb cases ⬇️; consistent w/flu & PNA “seasons.” Hosp caseloads normalized. Avg # new cases/day each mo:
May: 583 Nov: 2996
June: 1164 Dec: 5646
July: 1859 Jan: 7032
Aug: 1498 Feb: 3686
Sept: 1352 Mar: 1663
Oct: 2065
7/ 6. # of March tests = 1,023,676. NCDHHS back fills test data; on 4/1 tests can be back filled from 3/1 to present.
May: 271,133 Nov: 1,242,860
June: 348,174 Dec: 1,673,424
July: 714,289 Jan: 1,896,598
Aug: 699,911 Feb: 1,330,547
Sept: 773,697
Oct: 1,037,783
8/ % recovered =96.1%, % active cases =2.5%, CFR =1.3%. Mortality rate ⬆️ to 0.114%. Avg # deaths/day =9.71 on 3/16:
3/20: 0.80 10/20: 28.9
4/20: 14.4 11/20: 36.4
5/20: 18 12/20: 63.7
6/20: 15.3 1/21: 90.4
7/20: 21.06 2/21: 37.4
8/20: 27.77 3/1-16/21: 15.57
9/20: 26.6
9/ 0-17 & 18-24 cohorts, where 16 deaths reported out of 230,256 total cases (CFR = 0.00695%) since 6/15. Conversely, while 15% of NC COVID cases (132,406) in 65-75+ cohort, 83% of all NC COVID deaths (10,032) are in this cohort; of these 43.8% have been in congregate settings.
10/ Hospitalizations reporting changed on 11/13, ⬇️ by 73 patients to 1010. NOTE: on 3/28/21, ventilator, ICU, & inpatient available capacity well within normal limits and have been for ~5 weeks. Will no longer report available capacity unless I see it trending negatively again.
11/ % change in active cases and tests ⬇️ for 9th consecutive week; incidence slightly ⬆️ but not statistically significant. That’s a very good sign!

12. WCPSS reported 57 cases 3/11-17 (39 students/18 staff). Private/charter schools report 67 cases (57 students/10 staff).
12/ Covid cases per cohort ⬆️‘d across some age groups (not stat sig) this wk. Main cohort drivers of Covid transmission are 25-49, 50-64, & then 18-24 yrs. On 3/16, there were 6960 active cases in 50-64 + 25-49 cohort. There are 3445 total active cases in 2-24 cohort in ALL NC.
13/13 Overall, average daily/rolling 14-day incidence, active cases, hospitalizations, daily cases, and deaths/day all ⬇️. Hospital capacity is no longer an issue.
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More from @DrTracyTaylor

Jul 29, 2021
1/ @APDillon_ @jonpsanders @JohnLockeNC @markrobinsonNC @Chad_Adams NC C19 trends through 7/27/21. NCDHHS consistently modifies their dashboard (adds tests which ⬇️ incidence) and adds death data as far back as 6/20, & is no longer updating on weekends.
2/ Overall incidence is 7.26% and has never been at 5% since testing began; no statistically significant change since the mask mandate. Overall incidence 7/28/20: 7.56%, 7/27/21: 7.26%
3/ Daily incid b/w 3.12% & 11.19% over last 14 days. Avg daily incid for 7/21 (5.2%) significantly <7/20 (8.1%). Avg daily incid: May: 6.8% June: 7.6% July 8.1% Aug 6.9% Sept 5.7% Oct 6.4% Nov 7.4% Dec 10.9% Jan 12.0% Feb 7.9% Mar: 5.4% Apr: 5.8% 5/21: 4.4%
6/21: 2.2% 7/21: 5.2%
Read 20 tweets
May 5, 2021
@APDillon_ @PeteKaliner @jonpsanders @JonHardister @JohnBellNC @JohnLockeNC @Chad_Adams 1/ NC SC-2 trends thru 3/30/21 including current data on graphs to reflect current trends. NCDHHS modifies dashboard (adds tests which ⬇️ incidence), adds death data back to 6/20.
2/ Overall incidence ⬇️ to 8.07% (⬇️ 0.06%). Overall incidence has never been at 5% since testing began; no statistically significant change since the mask mandate.
3/ Daily incidence fluctuated b/w 3.19% & 8.88% over last 14 days. Avg daily incidence on 3/30 is 3.9%. Avg daily incidence each month:
May: 6.80% Nov: 737%
June: 7.64% Dec: 10.91%
July: 8.10% Jan: 12.01%
Aug: 6.94% Feb: 7.96%
Sept: 5.69% Mar: 5.40%
Oct: 6.37%
Read 13 tweets
Apr 22, 2021
1/ @APDillon_ @Chad_Adams @jonpsanders @JohnLockeNC @PeteKaliner @DrKellyVictory I’m old enough to remember when we were told to stay home, wear masks in/outside, don’t go near anyone, b/c if we did any of that we “could kill grandma.”
2/ All of this is supposed to protect the vulnerable, right?

Yet there are current outbreaks at 135 SNF’s & 73 residential care facilities in NC as of 4/20/21.

Sure, NC is doing a bang up job of protecting the vulnerable 🙄
3/ NC needs to ensure policies/procedures are in place at these facilities to monetarily reward ZERO Covid cases (think reimbursement) to truly protect this vulnerable population. These facilities also need to reduce patient:CNA/nurse ratio.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 29, 2021
@APDillon_ @jonpsanders @JohnLockeNC @PeteKaliner @Chad_Adams @KCOnTheRadio 1/ NC SC-2 data post for 3/9/21 w/comparison to 3/2/21 in parentheses unless otherwise noted.

But 1st let me preface data: as of 3/28, there are ~22,555 active Covid cases in ALL of NC.
2/ This means 0.215% of NC population has Covid. So 99.785% of NC pop does NOT have Covid; that’s ~10.467 MILLION people who don’t have Covid.
3/ Other stats:
•6 flu deaths in NC since 10/3; 1 in 25-40 cohort & 5 in 65+ cohort
•24% of NC have been vaccinated or had Covid
Read 14 tweets
Mar 28, 2021
@APDillon_ @Chad_Adams @PeteKaliner @jonpsanders @JohnLockeNC 1/ NC SC-2 Trends thru 3/2/21 w/current data (graphs) to reflect real-time trends. NCDHHS modifies dashboard w/# of tests (⬇️’s incidence); adds death data back to 6/20! NCDHHS no longer updating dashboard on wkends.
2/ Overall incidence ⬇️ to 8.37% (⬇️ 0.1%). Overall incidence has never been at 5% since testing began; no statistically significant change since the mask mandate.
3/ Daily incidence b/w 3.74% & 9.26% (9.26% =reporting inconsistency; see graph) over last 14 days. Avg daily incid on 3/2 =3.96%. Avg daily incid each month: May: 6.80% Sept: 5.69% Jan: 12.01%
June: 7.64% Oct: 6.37% Feb: 7.96%
July: 8.10% Nov: 7.37%
Aug: 6.94% Dec: 10.91%
Read 14 tweets
Mar 22, 2021
1/ @APDillon_ @PeteKaliner @jonpsanders @JohnLockeNC @HeagartyWCBOE NC SC-2 Trends thru 2/16/21 including current data/graphs (trends in real time). Discussing thru 2/16 since NCDHHS consistently modifies their dashboard (drives incidence ⬇️). Should be caught up later this wk!
2/ Overall incidence ⬇️ to 8.53% (⬇️ 0.05%). Overall incidence has never been at 5% since testing began; no statistically significant change since the mask mandate.
3/ Daily incid b/w 5.98%-17.98% (17.98% = reporting issue) over last 14 days. Avg daily incid (2/1-16) =9.15% (⬇️ 2.9% compared to Jan). Avg daily incid each month:
May: 6.8% Sept: 5.7% Jan: 12.0%
June: 7.6% Oct: 6.4% 2/1-16: 9.2%
July: 8.1% Nov: 7.4%
Aug: 6.9% Dec: 10.9%
Read 13 tweets

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