Still trying figure out that "inflection" point where vaccines given out enough to population that cases decrease (again, irrespective of lockdown in a way, right, because nursing homes very locked down in US & cases plummeted after vaccine roll-out reached certain threshold)
This article in Nature from very early on in the Israel roll-out (they were far & away ahead of us by then though), says "You need to vaccinate much more than a third of the population to really see a reduction in transmission"
nature.com/articles/d4158…
US is right now at 31.4% first dose, 18% fully vaccinated per CDC vaccine tracker but that of course wildly fluctuates per county & state since our public health system is so local-based (federal responses work better in pandemics but not how US built)
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
But helpful to have WaPo tool that breaks down vaccination rates by county & I like WaPo article from yesterday that says this is a time of colliding hope and dread in the USA with excellent @bylenasun & @LennyBernstein1
washingtonpost.com/health/as-coro…
Okay, so let's now remember a few things. Israel looked like it released lockdown on Feb 7, 2021 because the hospitalizations among those who were vaccinated & those most vulnerable were so low (see figure in this paper with lockdown date)
nature.com/articles/s4157…
Oh sorry, can you see figure, here it is. So, look at 07/02 which of course means February 7, 2021 to us in the U.S. Now in next tweet look at when cases started plummeting in Israel which wasn't until March 6 or so when a certain proportion of their population vaccinated
Here is the figure and here is the source ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/co…
So please check out by hovering over the date to see the plummet around March 8. And look at the next tweet where I found a story from EuroNews that Israel opened its economy that day because 40%
repeat 40% of their population had been vaccinated. Is that the inflection point in countries with varying levels of lockdown like Israel (UK pretty locked down & didn't have this longish period where cases weren't coming down like US/Israel): 40% vax
euronews.com/2021/03/07/isr…
Okay, so let's now remember a few things. Israel looked like it released lockdown on Feb 7, 2021 because the hospitalizations among those who were vaccinated & those most vulnerable were so low (see figure in this paper with lockdown date)
nature.com/articles/s4157…
Oh sorry, can you see figure, here it is. So, look at 07/02 which of course means February 7, 2021 to us in the U.S. Now in next tweet look at when cases started plummeting in Israel which wasn't until March 6 or so when a certain proportion of their population vaccinated
Here is the figure and here is the source ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/co…
So please check out by hovering over the date to see the plummet around March 8. And look at the next tweet where I found a story from EuroNews that Israel opened its economy that day because 40%
repeat 40% of their population had been vaccinated. Is that the inflection point in countries with varying levels of lockdown like Israel (UK pretty locked down & didn't have this longish period where cases weren't coming down like US/Israel): 40% vax
euronews.com/2021/03/07/isr…
So, again, never rolled out vaccine in middle of raging pandemic before- crazy times. Usually a pandemic has to get to 50 million deaths sadly instead of 2.84 million deaths worldwide like #covid19 before vaccines came to rescue. Tipping point 40% vax rate
cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-r…
@ThreadReader unroll
And then what is the other tipping point- the percentage of the population that needs to be vaccinated to get to "herd immunity". Remember what herd immunity is - enough of us immune that the virus can't find enough of us to infect (too many pink sheep) & dies down to whimper
I don't know what that exact threshold is for herd immunity but at 58% first dose, Israel getting close. 323 cases in a country of over 9 million yesterday. At 51% first dose, UK had 3402 cases yesterday out of a country of 66.5 million. Please don't look at measles, models, etc
But look to our junior/seniors in high school (UK/Israel 58% 1st dose; 51% 1st dose) compared to us 31.4% 1st dose to see how herd immunity with play out. Israel open etc, low cases. Is it 60% herd immunity? 65% for good measure even. Don't need young kids vax to get there.
@ThreadReader unroll
What I mean is that number of children <=11 in US in 2020 is 23.1 (0-5) + 24.8 (6-11) million per childstats. Population of U.S. is 328.2 million so 85% of those in U.S. are >11. If herd immunity achieved at around 60-65% per above, will get there sooner.
childstats.gov/americaschildr…
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