We've refined our calculations with Madrid Ct data. We've included pure false positivity, and isolated PCR&Antigen real/official series.
The 2nd wave is showing it's mainly Human made thru test policy, which maintained high proportional levels thru winter: Xmas irresponsibility
We can calculate official positive #test for each kind of test, considering Cts
Despite the variable proportion PCR+ are always more important in Epidemic creation, specially weird spikes, not shown in the more natural Antigen+
Guess when is more different?
Yep, Irresponsible!
We observed a relation between official positivity and inverted average Ct.
It does mean positivity is contaminated with high test pressure, creating more positivity than real.
We also observe average Ct<28 relates with Epidemic growth, while higher values point descent/plateau
Official positivity is sensible higher than real. Truth is that positivity went under the supposedly 5% game changer limit, just when they were pumping more fear to come.
It was 20% instead 25% in the winter spike, and only 15 instead 23 in the quite fake 2nd wave.
The comparison between official/real positives thru test type is very narrative of the political share of the created Epidemic, and in the smoother true nature of virus
Spikes of OLD PCR+, not related at all with Epidemic, are always at hand 2 create cases with the PCR machine
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