Thread by @firstresponses

Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* Case Rate: 11.6 per 100k, flat
* Postivity Rate: 4.9%, down
* Hospitalizations: ~140, flat
* Deaths: 11 this wk, down
* Vax: 32k new ppl vax'd, 266k total (28%)
* Vax: 29k new ppl fully vax'd, 150k total

1/

Case Rate

The Goal: < 10 daily cases per 100,000 ppl
The Data: 11.6 per 100k, holding steady

Right now, the variants & the vax are at a standstill.

2/

But the susceptible population is shrinking rapidly, as tens of thousands of people are vaccinated each week.

And the case rate of non-vax'd people is now up to 18.8 per 100k.

If you are not vax'd, please go get vax'd as soon as possible.

3/

Test Positivity Rate

Goal: < 5%
Data: 4.9%

This is promising. After rising from 4.1% to 5.3% over the past 3wks, it's good to see a drop here.

4/

Cases Vs Tests

1wk, -2% vs +9%
2wks, +4% vs +0%
4wks, +2% vs -11%
6wks, -28% vs +4%

As the more contagious variants spread, testing will be important to keep an eye on. Contact tracing, too, but we don't have the data for that.

5/

Covid Hospitalizations

As you can see, we're holding steady here. It's somewhat concerning that we're no longer dropping, but we're not rising either. We'll need to continue to keep an eye on this too.

6/

Covid Deaths

There were 11 reported this week. It's pretty incredible how dramatically deaths dropped once vaccinations started.

We had 7wks straight with 65+ deaths per week. But over the past 5wks, we've only had 62 deaths total.

7/

Vaccinations

Over 266k people have been vaccinated locally, with 150k fully vax'd.

This is exciting, but for context only 27% of people are vaccinated. That's not even halfway to our 70% goal.

So, while we're making good progress, we've still got quite a ways to go.

8/

Over 32k new people were vaccinated this week, down over 5k from last wk, but still higher than any other previous wk. Hopefully, this drop is related to the Easter holiday.

Meanwhile, 29k new ppl became fully vax'd, even with last wk.

9/

There's some evidence here that the Easter weekend did impact vaccinations.

We want to see this graph rising, so it will be important to see what happens over the next few wks.

The concern is twofold: On the one hand, access to vaccination. On the other, vaccine hesitancy.

10/

We see the same Easter Effect here for new people fully vaccinated, so I think we have sufficient evidence to support that theory.

This data should rise slightly over the next few wks, as 2nd doses for Pfizer & Moderna roll in, and as the J&J single-dose ramps up.

11/

We've heard a lot of talk about "herd immunity."

Estimates are that roughly 70% of the population needs immunity, either thru infection or vaccination, to essentially stop transmission.

We're at 28% vax'd & 10% infected (minus those who've been both).

About halfway there.

12/

However, @youyanggu estimates that local infections are 3x higher than reported (bc of lack of testing).

If so, then we're at 28% vax'd + 32% infected (minus those who've been both).

That's over half the population, which means we're getting close.

13/

Using the official data, at our current vaccination pace, we would reach "herd immunity" in June.

But...

14/

Using estimated infections, at our current rate of vaccination, we would reach "herd immunity" within the next month.

The question is whether we can continue this rate. Supply is no longer the issue. Now we need to work on demand.

15/

Any chance at reaching "herd immunity," though, will involve vaccinating kids and youth since 25% of the local population is under 18 yrs of age.

Youth aged 16+ can already get the vaccine. I would encourage parents & teens to go get it.

And 12+ is coming soon.

16/

The pandemic is not over, but we can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

This summer is going to be great...if we can get enough people vaccinated.

17/

In the meantime, we know what to do...
Mask.
Distance.
Outdoors.

And spread the gospel of covid vaccination.

This isn't hard. We just have to want it.

18/18