james aycock is hopeful Profile picture
faith, hope, love...and equity in memphis
May 29, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* we're up to 334 cases per day
* this is way higher than this same time the past two years (4x & 3.5x higher)
* this summer is going to be BAD, y'all

1/ Cases
+25% over 1wk
+62%, 2wks
+431%, 4wks
+1052%, 6wks

Tests
+7%, 1wk, but since cases grew more, the positivity rate continues to increase (up to 11.5%)...
...but also, tests are -6% over 6wks

2/
May 21, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
--> 268 new cases/day (+30% over 1wk, +137% 2wks, +544% 4wks, and +1310% 8wks)
--> 10.1% positivity rate (was 9.3% last wk, 4wks ago it was 2.7%, and 6wks ago it was 1.0%)

1/ If we keep growing at 30% per wk,
which is not a stretch
(the last 4wks have been +51%, +80, +83, +30),
we'll be over 500 cases per day in 3wks
& up to 1,000 cases per day just 2wks later.

2/
May 21, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
I missed the game last night, but I was curious how GSW came back in the 3rd, so I'm watching it now.

A few things I've noticed...

1) DAL stopped attacking. Maybe bc they shot so well in the 1st half? 2) That said, DAL has had a lot of open looks, at least in the first half of Q3, but just couldn't make anything.

3) And then they changed their strategy. They were successful going after Steph. And they got him in foul trouble. Then they just stopped.
May 1, 2022 6 tweets 2 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* 63 new cases/day
--> +51% over 1wk, +117% 2wks, +177% 6wks
* 5.8% positivity rate
--> up from 2.7% last wk, 1.1% the wk before (mainly bc testing is -30% over 1wk, -65% 2wks)

1/ Image I've not put out a covid report
since Mar19.

I've been super busy -
the first two wks,
I was out of town
chaperoning
scout & youth trips,
then there was
Holy Week
& Easter.

But, also,
the past 6wks
have been
the safest
of the entire pandemic.

2/
Feb 5, 2022 20 tweets 8 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr: better but still not good
* 706 new cases/day
* 257 pediatric cases/day
* 13.5% positivity rate
* 67 deaths

1/ Since we just started a new month, let's begin by stepping back to look at monthly data.

As you can see, with nearly 55,000cases, January more than doubled the previous high of 20,000 back in August.

Likewise, the positivity rate of 31% topped the 21% from August.

2/
Jan 8, 2022 15 tweets 5 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* case rate, 255 per 100k
* 2,396 new cases/day (26,328 active cases)
* 475 pediatric cases/day (5,098 active)
* 41.7% positivity rate
* hospitalizations, nearly doubled
* but deaths are staying low, at least for now

1/ Let's start with case rate.

I had to adjust the limits of the vertical axis - again - bc cases have continued to explode.

Before this wave, the previous high was right at 90 avg daily cases per 100,000 people.

Last wk: 181 per 100k.

Now: 255 per 100k.

2/
Dec 18, 2021 14 tweets 5 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* 202 cases/day (most in 10wks)
* 5.7%+ (highest in 9wks)
* 55 pediatric cases/day (most in 10wks)
* hospitalizations are rising, but slowly
* 22 deaths reported this wk (lowest in 3wks)

1/ After falling down to 8.4 avg daily cases per 100,000 people in early November, our case rate has climbed up to 19.2 per 100k, more than doubling in the past 6wks.

2/
Dec 11, 2021 12 tweets 5 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* 176 cases/day (highest in 9wks)
* 5.4% positive (highest in 8wks)
* testing is up, but cases are up more
* 82 deaths so far in Dec (vs 68 all of Nov)
* hospitalizations are up, but only slightly

1/ Image After falling down to 8.4 avg daily cases per 100,000 people in early November, our case rate has climbed up to 18.8 per 100k, more than doubling in just 5wks.

2/ Image
Nov 11, 2021 7 tweets 2 min read
Today is Veterans Day, but it used to be called Armistice Day. And it was a mistake to change the name. We should celebrate peace, we should celebrate the end of war, not war itself.

Kurt Vonnegut, born on this day, would agree. Image Vonnegut was himself a veteran. He dropped out of college to enlist & serve in WWII. Taken prisoner by the Germans, he survived the bombing of Dresden.

In Breakfast of Champions, he wrote about the name-change from Armistice Day to Veterans Day. It's worth reading today.
Nov 6, 2021 20 tweets 7 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* The positive trends in the data continue
* And now kids are vax eligible!
* But vax locations are problematic
* Also, we appear to be plateauing
* What's in store for the Winter?

1/ Image Since October just ended, let's look back at monthly trends.

* Avg daily cases dropped 73%, from 554 to 149
* Positivity dropped from 16.0% to 5.1%
* Deaths were up slightly to 194 (remember, this is a lagging indicator)
* New vax's dropped to record-lows

2/ Image
Sep 25, 2021 14 tweets 5 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr: Good News
* Cases continue to drop, down to 340/day
* Positivity rate, down to 9.3%
* Hospitalizations continue to drop
* Deaths, way up to 76
* Vax's remain low

1/ Here are avg daily cases by report date and test date. And what this says to me is that we finally caught up with the backlog (notice that the big discrepancy b/t the two a few wks back is gone). As a result, reported cases are now back to being accurate.

2/
Aug 14, 2021 25 tweets 9 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* Cases, 618/day (+2,215% over 7wks)
* Case Rate, 66 per 100k (4th highest ever)
* Positivity, 23% (record-high)
* Hospitalizations, nearing record-highs
* Deaths, 30 this wk (most since Feb)

1/ Image Before we begin, please contribute to this fund to help Floridia Jackson pay for the care she needs.

Floridia has cared for so many of us over the years, but now she needs our help. So I ask that you be generous and give as you are able.

gofundme.com/f/fighting-for…

2/
Jul 31, 2021 25 tweets 10 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr: Bad.
* Cases, +1207% over 5wks, from 27 to 349/day (37.2 per 100k)
* Positivity, from 2.4% to a record-high 16.9%+
* Infection rate, 1.32-1.46
* Hospitalizations rising quickly, +72% in 1wk, +142% in 2wks
* Deaths are up too

1/ Perspective.

We are a week away from surpassing our peak from last summer. And that's *with* more than 400k ppl vaccinated.

This is a complete disaster. And the worst part is that it was completely preventable. We have vaccines.

2/
Jul 24, 2021 24 tweets 10 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr: Hold On Tight!
* Cases, +671% over 4wks, from 27 to 206/day (22.0 per 100k)
* Positivity, from 2.4% to 12.8%+
* Infection rate, 1.34
* Hospitalizations & Deaths on the rise

1/ Image Just look at how daily cases have spiked over the past month. And notice that we've had 3 days straight over 200 cases.

For context, we've only had 1 day total over 200 since March. And the last time with 3 days straight over 200 was Feb6-8.

2/ Image
Jul 17, 2021 17 tweets 6 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr: Yikes!
* Cases, +51% over 1wk, +342% over 2wks, from 32 to 94 to 141/day
* Positivity, from 3.8% to 7.8% to 10.1%
* Infection rate, 1.46, highest since March 2020
* Hospitalizations, rising quickly
* Deaths, starting to rise

1/ Look at how sharply daily cases have spiked over the past two weeks, up to levels not seen since the first week of May.

We've now had 9 straight days with over 100 cases, well over 100 in fact.

2/
Jul 10, 2021 20 tweets 8 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr: We're In Trouble
* Cases, +193% over 1wk, to 94/day (10/100k)
* Positivity, more than doubled, from 3.8% to 7.8%
* Infection rate, 1.22, highest since June 2020
* Hospitalizations are on the rise
* Vax, record-lows

1/ Look at this huge spike: avg daily cases are up 193% in just 1wk!

Meanwhile, tests are -26% and are under 1k/day for the first time since April 2020.

2/
Jun 19, 2021 22 tweets 7 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* Cases up 28% over 1wk to 50/day (5.3 per 100k), infection rate over 1.0, as the Delta variant spreads
* Positivity steady at 3.6%+
* Only 1 death, the lowest since March 2020
* Vaccinations up from last wk, even w/prior 2wks

1/ Image Here's the infection rate, which has risen from 0.76 at the end of May to 0.98 as of a week ago and are likely up to 1.09 now.

Remember, spread takes off once it passes the 1.0 bar. And we've seen big spikes each time 1.1 is surpassed. So this is definitely concerning.

2/ Image
Jun 5, 2021 19 tweets 8 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* The Good: Record-lows for infection rate, case rate, & positivity rate. Also, hospitalizations & deaths are down after a brief post-Easter spike. Could we be at herd immunity?

*The Bad: Vaccinations are nearly at record-lows.

1/ Monthly Overview

* Cases: 111/day in May, lowest in the past yr apart from the 106/day in March
* Positivity: 6.0%, lowest in the past yr except the 4.6% in March
* Deaths: 56, lowest in the past yr except 50 in Apr
* Vax: 1523/day, the lowest on record (Feb has fewer days)

2/
May 8, 2021 16 tweets 6 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* Vax: < 9k new ppl (-73%, 4wks)
* Vax: 322k total (34% of pop)
* Case Rate: 14.0 per 100k (+20%, 4wks)
* Positivity Rate: 6.2%+ (4.9%, 4wks ago)
* Hospitalizations: ~210 (+50%, 4wks)
* Deaths: 9 this wk (15 or less, 9wks)

1/ Let's start with deaths. Bc deaths show how incredibly effective the vaccines are.

In the 9wks of Jan-Feb, we avg'd 68 covid deaths per wk.

In the 9wks since, in Mar-May, we've avg'd 12 per wk, with a high of 15.

This is huge. Vaccines work. Vaccines save lives.

2/
Apr 24, 2021 24 tweets 9 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr: I'm Concerned
* Vax: 13k new ppl (-45%)
* Vax: 300k total (32% of pop)
* Case Rate: 15.0 per 100k (-19%)
* Positivity Rate: 6.5%+ (down from 6.5%)
* Hospitalizations: ~150 (up slightly)
* Deaths: 14 this wk (up slightly)

1/ Fortunately, cases fell this week, but we need cases to fall much more - and much more rapidly. As you can see, the curve is still bent upwards.

We've proven, multiple times, that we can flatten the curve. Let's do it again before things get out of control.

2/
Apr 17, 2021 19 tweets 8 min read
Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr: I'm Concerned
* Case Rate: 18.7 per 100k (+61%)
* Positivity Rate: 7.3%+ (up from 4.9%)
* Hospitalizations: ~145 (up slightly)
* Deaths: 11 this wk (flat)
* Vax: 23k new ppl (-28%)
* Vax: 290k total (31% of pop)

1/ Image The first thing to note is that we are, once again, un-bending the curve.

We've proven, over & over again, that we can flatten the curve. And then we've seen, over & over again, what happens when we loosen up too soon.

2/ ImageImage