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PLC
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Apr 13, 2021, 7 tweets

Excluding microstates, two of the top seven most vaccinated nations are the neighboring states of Hungary and Serbia, each having vaccinated more than 25% of the population:

Serbia initiated their program more quickly, but Hungary has recently surpassed Serbia.

It will be interesting to see if these efforts have resulted in declining infections and/or fatalities.

Initially, cases appear to have risen sharply following the launch of mass vaccination, peaking about 8 weeks later, and then falling sharply.

This is similar to patterns seen elsewhere.

Interestingly, Serbia has consistently reported a lower CFR than Hungary and that hasn't changed - in both nations, reported CFRs have not yet been impacted by vaccination efforts.

When we add other Balkan nations to the trend, something interesting emerges: it appears that the pattern of Covid cases in this region is primarily season.

If anything, it appears that the vaccination program in Hungary coincided with an exceptionally high zenith:

In fact, current case counts per Capital in this region are highest in the two most successful vaccinators.

Bosnia has not yet vaccinated anyone - and yet they have largely followed the same pattern of seasonal fluctuations as Serbia and Hungary.

It may be that there simply has not been enough time to see the benefits of mass vaccination in this region of Europe but, thus far, it appears that regional-seasonal factors are the driving force in the Balkans - not mass vaccination.

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