Has Minnesota’s 3rd #COVID19 wave hit its peak? I always try to be somewhat cautious with these calls, but on Thursday MN was averaging 6.22% positivity; it’s since dropped 3 straight days to 5.97%, and has been basically flat over the past two weeks.
The rate of new cases by sample date (which lags real events by about a week, but isn’t skewed by reporting artifacts) is still rising, but you can see the rate of growth has been slowing noticably recently. And a lot of this is driven by increased testing.
If you peek ahead at the less-reliable data on cases by sample date from the past 7 days, you can see cases have risen the past 5 Mondays — but at least for now, it looks like last Monday will break that trend and show a drop for tests conducted that day.
Intriguingly, there are even hints that #COVID19 hospitalizations might be peaking, whether by admissions or current bed use. This is more tentative than our case/positivity data, but lends them a little extra weight.
The hospitalization data here is messy in part due to reporting artifacts, but note how the 14-day rate of growth for cases and positivity rate has both plummeted, and for positivity rate is basically 0%.
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s rate of #COVID19 vaccinations is declining, whether total doses or new first doses.
This is expected (though not welcome), since Minnesota’s vaccine supply last week fell off sharply. Next week’s allocation isn’t any better.
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