Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Climate, Conflict, Politics, Africa. Editor https://t.co/b6HbxvlPDn (NZ) Reporting from France. https://t.co/LNVK0y9b2z #nzpol #DesertRain

Apr 20, 2021, 10 tweets

The North Atlantic is mounting a come back to this Spring is over in Europe malarkey. /1

It certainly looks and feels like it’s going to rain here. And Andre our 93 year old neighbor reckons a storm is coming.

Ouch.... hopefully not this storm.

I think the weather models may be getting a bit discombobulated what with all this new variability going on.

@ECMWF's rain model is still on the blink today. But here's the continuation of the storms coming in from the East and the West of Europe.

The cascading impact of chaos is something.

But simulating it accurately is something else altogether.

The @ECMWF model is betting on Atlantic water (King Kong) clobbering Arctic air (Godzilla) in the one on one ahead (GFS is less convinced on this point).

Meanwhile here's what the Euro contender has to say about this battle royale today.

In the animation above a chunk of Arctic Godzilla sneaks in behind King Kong and heads down into the Middle East at the end.

With respect to yesterday's prognostications on the postponement of spring: @ECMWF now figures that King Kong will come through wrt to temperature.

In conclusion, I do not know how seriously we can take any of these revised simulations. Especially the more catastrophic guesses.

It will be interesting to see what the BBC's weather for the week ahead folk have to say about all of this.

In the meantime we should probably focus on enjoying whatever we get for these final few days of Spring.

One final observation: I suspect this is probably right. There's going to be a lot of snow in the north. and a fair bit in the alps. Its just a shame we can't go skiing (unless you happen to be Swiss, Austrian or Italian and live up there :).

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