The first speaker in this star studded panel here is sober clear and damning.

“… featuring Mustafa Barghouti, Mads Gilbert, Ilan Pappe, and Ingrid Fiskaa – discusses and critically explores three key areas: the present moment where Gaza remains under constant genocidal attack from Israel; the so-called “legitimacy” of the rules-based order (including but not limited to international law) that’s supposed to prevent or stop such violence; and the future of rebuilding Gaza in a way that actually honours the hopes, dreams and aspirations of the Palestinian people.”

The panel is moderated by Paul Salvatori, senior producer and presenter at TRT World.

Oslo Panel for Palestine youtu.be/nwCgY9auyuw?si… via @YouTube As Christmas and the New Year approach, reflection, both self and outward looking are part of the zeitgeist for the faithful throughout the world.

As it stands this Christmas in Bethlehem will be the “second Christmas during an ongoing Genocide”. Placed in quote marks here because it seems hard to reconcile with reality.

How can this still be continuing?

How is it that the @Statedept even now - 15 months after October 7th and more recently the defeat of both Hezbollah and Assad - is still mostly saying “Israel has a right to defend itself. As massacres of 50-80 Gaza civilians - predominantly women and children - continue to occur on a daily basis.

There is a new chapter on the story of Mosab Hassan Yousef.

This is the original production of this. But he will soon be known far better than he was when Chris Cuomo brought his story to life here back in December 2023 at the outset of the war, in the wake of January 7th.

Hamas Founder's Son Turned Israeli Spy - Mosab Hassan Yousef, "The Green... youtu.be/llJxz1pAlQQ?si… via @YouTube “Hamas’s Aspiration is global”

“The Muslim Brotherhood is Here in the United States.”

For clarification Mosab Hassan is unquestionably completely genuine and in is views, and like me he is a pacifist when it comes to saving human life from conflict. And this as he articulates very very clearly remains his view.

And for this reason - notwithstanding the fact that this latest broadcast is extremely triggering, and will likely soon become very controversial, is also very important.

Correction I meant to say here:

“The Neighbours & friends of Syria, and international solidarity movements, and all people of good consciousness need to develop a counter strategy to the ongoing U.S-Israel War Drumming - that is now clearly moving U.S. towards a 2003 repeat of the 2nd Gulf War.”

I would proscribe peaceful non-violence myself. scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0304…

The desire of Genocide -Pro clueless highly paid American pundits to misrepresent current historical events as they unfold in real time in the global real-Politik is far from surprising, but this take from Bill Kristol is about as daft as it is possible to be.

Syria’s HTS & Türkiye led coup which has toppled Assad cane out of the blue. It was not an American-Israeli plot but rather a deftly delivered victory for justice that will have the effect of heading off the U.S. clash with Iran that the genocidal maniac who remains in Power in Israel, for now anyway, had planned.

This will not now be the next chapter in the story of Middle Eastern turmoil. Instead we will now see a flourishing of Middle Eastern led political reform that may finally rid the region of the power designs of the Western Powers “Great Game” who will soon become irrelevant in the region.

Thread…. I shall not bother to decide Kristol’s incoherent burbling except to remark that he is missing the real story here.

Arab’s just liberated Arabs in Arabia - as ought to be the case. Whether this was the clear intent of the actions and actors whose planning led up to this moment of clarity in geopolitical history is unclear, but the result is clear.

Syrians are now free. And western powers have been rendered irrelevant except to the extent that they are able to render assistance to the new Free Arab State of Syria in coming months and years. /2

Excellent edition of @France24_en The debate.

If you listen/watch you will doubtless come to the conclusion that nobody knows for sure:

1. What exactly has happened in Syria, who backed who…

2. nor what the end game in this HTS launched renewed Civil War in Syria will look like.

3. But there are a lot of interesting theories.

Domino effect? Assad's allies stretched thin as Syrian rebels pounce • F... youtu.be/ZZN1nek4aTg?si… via @YouTube From my perspective a useful rubric to analyse this is who benefits from this.

The penultimate French speaker - before the American who closed (presumably with a conventional foggy bottom perspective - I.E pro Israel when asked by Picard who is responsible gave I think the clearest answer.

“Ask the Americans” then pointed out that this development comes hot on top of the ceasefire in Lebanon which is far from secure.

The war crimes attorney, French, based in Lyon, who lodged the first war crimes complaint against Netanyahu was Giles Devers.

He recently died.

The complaint was based on the #GreatMarchOfReturn IDF operations during which 223 Palestinians were shot The protests:

30 March 2018 – 27 December 2019
(1 year, 8 months, 3 weeks and 6 days)

…. peaceful. Young people gathered on the border and threw stones at snipers on defensive mounds above the protest area. A varying number of protestors were shot each day. including medics and members of the media.

The protests reached their zenith when Trump was present in Jerusalem for the opening of a U.S. embassy there during his first term as President.

Time magazine coverage time.com/longform/gaza-…

This is a must listen to @intifada podcast episode especially the first section off the top about the Lebanon ceasefire and the French pirouette wrt the meaning of the Rome statute. I.E declaring that it does not apply to Israel at least with respect to France’s obligation to Arrest Netanyahu being not the same as France’s obligation to arrest Vladimir Putin over war crimes in Ukraine.

That said the willingness of France to deploy boots on the ground into a theatre in which it suffered casualties in 1982 to a terror bombing does perhaps provide a small counter balance.

The analysis suggests that the concession by France was a Netanyahu condition for The ceasefire. Which is messy for sure and was - “euphemistically perhaps” - simultaneously brave and practical in achieving the ceasefire. Knowing the propensity for people to go off the deep end with respect to hypocrisy, at sometimes. It can also be the right thing to do and in this occasion it arguably is.

A wise head here in the media center just made a compelling counter argument to the practicality of the G77 and China walking away from the talks here.

And it’s essentially based in the recognition of rising geo-strategic entropy and the phenomena arising out of a lack any coherent global order. /1 The loud activist refrain here is “no deal is better than a bad deal.” But the question is what will the mean. in another conversation a person involved in finance talks just suggested that it’s looking very unlikely that there will be any agreement here simply because there is no strong leadership here. And in particular minimal representation here of strong G7 leadership. /2

It’s a gray day here at #COP29Azerbaijan as the 29th Meeting of Nations to address what is now a #ClimateCrisis enters extra time, day one. THREAD.


Civil Society is preparing for a big day in the COP29 venue till the Closing Plenary is convened most likely fairly late Saturday. Here are letters sent to the largest Developing block of COP Nations G77+ China and several developed world nations last night.

This came after new texts were released on the Core remaining issues in this Climate Summit:

Finance - specifically the NCQG - the draft text contained the first number placed on the table 250 Billion, which is not even an inflation adjusted upgrade on the 100 Billion a year in finance agreed in Copenhagen in 2009.

See: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenhage…

Final official day of #COP29Azerbaijan

The city is remarkably like Wellington weather wise swinging from day to day and occasionally lovely on a good day.

But the NCQG negotiations are still pretty much deadlocked on the most important issue here, Finance, with no numbers on the table yet. And talks still stuck on many of the same issues they were stuck on at the beginning. I had an opportunity to speak the Egyptian Ambassador as I was leaving who is in a “Pair” appointed by the Presidency with the Australian Ambassador takes to try to get an agreement on the NCQG. He was optimistic about a realistic NCQG figure being eventually offered by Developed Nations to Developing Nations. But did not expect this to come until the very end.

And Negotiations will therefore continue today. This video was at the venue last night - Birds seem to have a commute past the venue to where they sleep.

ROD ORAM In Memoriam. A Photo Thread.

As some followers in NZ may be aware I am currently at #COP29 in Baku Azerbaijan. My fourth COP. And this is a relatively difficult one. Rod Oram died tragically in a cycling accident in March 2024 when I was back in NZ for my first visit since leaving NZ to spread my wings in 2015.

I caught up with him in Glasgow back in 2021 in the time of Covid.

But I have known him for a lot longer as you will see in the photos in this thread. The oldest pictures I have are from him at the Egypt hosted COP in 2022. My second COP.


His successor in climate coverage @NewsroomNZ's @marcdaalder is attending his first COP this year which got me thinking about NZ's COP UNCCC coverage trailblazer for in person COP coverage.

COP29 Erasure – COP29 Media Center Crippled scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2411… The official video record of COP29 is being erased every 12 hours & nobody here knows
The Media Center for UNFCCC COP meetings was transformed in 2021 in Glasgow during the UK Presidency of the COP. The new high tech set up has cameras in all official meeting places recording the events in full. The content from this system is then made available to media in the MEDIA Center via the IBC (Interational Broadcast Center) platform.
The center also has desks for several hundred journalists to work during the COP.

The wrong headed and frankly selfish approach of NZME and STUFF on the issue of the "Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill" [see: mch.govt.nz/our-work/broad…] is deeply problematic for independent and digital native publishing companies such as @Scoop.

Part 1 of my thoughts on the subject can be found here.

"Google's Support For Democracy And Media In NZ" scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2411… Other medium sized digital native publications including @NewsroomNZ and @TheSpinoffTV are in a similar position to us - as well as a large group of smaller independent digital and print publications across New Zealand.

The final pre-election comedy roasts of @realDonaldTrump VIDEO-THREAD

/1 Jimmy Kimmel

Trump Ratchets Up Rhetoric, Epstein Bombshells Dropped & Jimmy's Electio... via @YouTube /2 Stephen Colbert

Senior Women Back Harris In Iowa | America's Fresh Start | Trump vs. The... via @YouTube

Who owns RCP politics?

Because…

it’s headline arithmetic system is borked

259 to 269 electoral votes ain’t possible That said at the moment This is now Trump’s election to lose in the polling. And the turning point was September 30th.

U.S. warns Tehran against retaliation after Israeli strikes in Iran Haaretz haaretz.com/us-news/2024-1… The Biden administration has told Tehran through an intermediary that it should avoid responding to the Israeli strikes in Iran on Friday and allow the U.S. to bring an end to the ongoing cycle of hostilities between the nations,

The messages were relayed through a third-party country that maintains diplomatic relations with Iran, indicating that the U.S. would increase its efforts in the coming days to achieve an agreement to end the war in Gaza and Lebanon. An Iranian response to the strike, the message warned, would hinder the American diplomatic efforts in the region.

Since the start of the Israeli strikes in Iran on Friday night, the U.S. administration has been signaling that this move aligns with President Biden's requests to Israel to target only military sites, rather than oil production facilities or Iran's nuclear program.

In the weeks leading up to the strike, Biden provided Israel with a ballistic missile defense system, while also publicly opposing an Israeli strike that would harm Iran's oil industry, due to concerns that such an action would destabilize oil markets and increase global energy prices.

A senior administration official said Biden encouraged "Prime Minister [Netanyahu] to design a response that served to deter further attacks in Israel while reducing risk of further escalation."

The administration clarified that the U.S. did not participate in the Israeli strike, but it's warning to Iran included a message that an Iranian response against Israel might lead to direct U.S. involvement in the conflict.

"Should Iran choose to respond, we are fully prepared to once again defend against any attack ... If Iran chooses to respond once again, we will be ready, and there will be consequences for Iran once again," a senior administration official said. "This should be the end of this direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran."

In the days leading up to the IDF offensive, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the Middle Eastin an effort to revive negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages held there.

The French government convened an international conference in Paris on the war in Lebanon, aiming to build a global consensus for ending the conflict based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701. France also sent a direct message to Iran, urging it to avoid responding to the Israeli strike to avoid disrupting these efforts.
… continues.

Video Thread: Israel-Gaza-Lebanon Security Crisis.

This post Israeli calibrated retaliation on Iran for its attacks during the height of this crisis (attacks by Iran also very calibrated) opens the Overton Window for a resolution of the entire post, October 7th Hamas Attack,initiated crisis.

It also shows considerable diplomatic pressure - possibly the most intense so far- was applied on Israel by the U.S to secure this result.

youtube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0…

The first video is from @AJEnglish’s flagship Inside Story breaking news service and was published yesterday, before last nights very calibrated Israeli response by Israel over night. One which has not escalated the crisis.

It addresses divided European policy positions on the issue of an arms embargo on Israel - Spain-France (yes) vs Germany Netherlands. Other nations are also split and several have formally announced recognition of Palestine.

[NB: The UK is now out of Europe and no longer has a formal influence in Brussels EU institutional deliberations .] 🔴 Al Jazeera English | Live youtube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0… via @YouTube

@AJEnglish’s love coverage of the attack is still watchable and begins roughly one hour ago on the current live stream.

Aljazeera ought to publish this full live stream as it is outstanding.

The Inside Story episode mentioned above appears to precede the attacks based on initial remarks from participants. It should be available on demand on YouTube Shortly.

The conclusion we can draw from this is that U.S. public and private diplomacy around this was extremely deftly managed and choreographed.

And this is therefore the best opportunity to end this war since it started. Israel may have even agreed on a communications strategy going forward on this, however implausible this suggestion may seem.

Whilst we are on the subject of U.S. Secretary of State @SecBlinken’s abject incompetence it is worth recalling that Foggy Bottom has seen a procession of senior official resignations in the State Department over the course of this war. Experienced career diplomats of the U.S. Govt. Who resigned during the last year over their perception of his mismanagement. Some of them resigned after writing internal memoranda or “dissent” notes. Others including notably the Arabic Language Public Diplomacy spokeswoman who could no longer stomach being told to gaslight the Arabic public with the State Department’s official talking points.

Others resigned because reports and assessments they wrote were edited or binned because they did not fit the official narrative with respect to Israel’s IDF’s operations or humanitarian law breaches.

Throughout the war that began on October 7th is a massive disconnect between the reality of what is actually happening in Israel and now Lebanon and the mutterings of the United States Chief Diplomat Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

And as the slaughter in Gaza reaches new depths of depravity he has once again returned to Israel to beg it to live up to its humanitarian obligations, whilst at the same time the U.S. Military is running a constant daily air-lift operation providing Israel with the weapons it has used to destroy Gaza absolutely and is now in the process of using to destroy large swathes of Lebanon including the capital Beirut. The entire world has been watching this horror show in near real time now for more than a year. And we know what happens next as it has happened more than a dozen times before.

@SecBlinken. Will depart from Israel and return to Foggy Bottom and the long suffering State Dept. spokespeople will provide nonsensical non answers to questions from the media about whether or not Israel is or is not complying with American requests wrt the killing of civilians in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon.

We will be told once again perhaps for the 50tg or 60th time that:

- Israel has a right to defend itself
- Hamas and Hezbollah are terrorist organisations
- That decisions about aid and military operations are entirely up to Israel because it is a “sovereign nation”
- That Iran is responsible for all of this
- That the U.S. is shocked about. X or y and that concerns have been raised with Israel about civilian casualties or humanitarian workers & journalists being killed and that investigations are underway (but no results of any of these inquiries will be issued)
- That the U.S. is particularly concerned about settler violence in the West Bank (Perhaps because those are the good Palestinians vs those in Gaza who are all Hamas?)

Bur there will be no accountability or answers to any of these questions. We have seen this script now hundreds of times. It is on repeat.

The World Health organisation has cancelled the second round of polio vaccinations in Northern Gaza because of the dire security situation.

This risks a polio outbreak for children in not only Northern Gaza but undermining the entire polio vax effort bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w1… The episode also reports on @SecBlinken’s minimalist remarks to media during his current mission to Israel. On the face of it his remarks are more in the form of a triumphal description of Israel’s recent military successes rather than what would be expected given the renewed outbreak of famine and polio in Gaza.

However this is not at all surprising based on all previous missions by @SecBlinken to consult with @IsraeliPM Netanyahu. x.com/secblinken/sta…

There is a good way and less good but possibly more impactful way for the War in Gaza to be brought to an end.

The good way is for it to end immediately which requires Netanyahu to be removed from office. Only Joe Biden can do this.

The less good but possibly more impactful way to end the war is for it to be ended by a real “Rules Based Order”. I.E. according to International Law.

- The United Nations Charter
- THE UNIVERSAL DECLARATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS
- the ICJ - International Court of Justice
- the UNHRC & OHCHR
- The Geneva Convention
- The Rome Statute - International Criminal Court
- The Treaty of Rome - Genocide Convention
- The Special Rapporteurs for Israel of which their are several including @FrancescaAlbs
- The UNGA - United Nations General Assembly
- The UNSC - United Nations Security Council

All have important legal roles addressing issues related the wars in Gaza & Lebanon