Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Climate, Conflict, Politics, Africa. Editor https://t.co/b6HbxvmnsV (NZ) Reporting from France. https://t.co/LNVK0y9IS7 #nzpol #DesertRain
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Feb 22 6 tweets 3 min read
An interesting report on Egypt 🇪🇬 ‘s response/practice when it comes to the shifting sands in international financial trading as a result of BRICS and the rise in the importance of the Yuan in particular for settling trade transactions.

At a practical level nations anticipating a loss in US dollar liquidity are increasingly hedging their bets on trade financing and broadening the quantity of trade in currencies other than the USD.

At a macro global level there is a high level of risk associated with these changes, principally because of the astronomical amount of US debt and deposits denominated in the USD.

The report shows that Egypt 🇪🇬 - a close U.S. ally is simultaneously seeking to be pragmatic about the threat this poses to its own economy by this expanding phenomena.

I have long considered that this « great unwinding » of the USD is the greatest threat to international economic conditions of my lifetime. I expect central bankers are having conniptions all over the planet at the moment.

Made in Egypt, sold in dollars goo.gl Here is the original report I am referring to here. (See Quoted tweet).

What is happening now in global finance dwarfs the GFC of 2008 and its predecessor crises, the Asian Flue in the late 29th Century and the Dot Com Crash of the early 2000s.

The US Federal Reserve played a critical role in righting the great ship of global finance in those cases by providing liquidity. It is unclear whether they will be either willing or able to do so in the coming crises. Europe and China together need to consider how they can cooperate to address this coming crisis.

Critically the causes of this crisis are different and the War in Gaza is extremely important in relation to concerns about the Dollar and is driving the hoarding of USD liquidity by the super rich which is most probably one of the drivers of what is happening here.
Jan 8 5 tweets 3 min read
Lots of People have been raving to me about this amazing piece from @JohnJCampbell in the early summer. Just read it and OMG! Is it good or what.

NZ’s politics as we begin 2024 are febrile in a manner significantly beyond anything I have ever seen thanks to the bonkers agenda set out by the coalition govt that should not have been allowed to happen.

If you haven’t read this yet do so.1news.co.nz/2023/12/30/joh… Justifiably the bit in the piece on former pm, Labour Leader @chrishipkins is excoriating, albeit in the relatively understated personal rhetorical tone in which @JohnJCampbell has achieved mastery.

“Labour’s vote almost halved in three years and their leader is talking about “vibe”.
“People don’t vote on a left-right continuum. They vote on the vibe of the campaign”, Chris Hipkins declared.
I’m not suggesting a hair shirt – Labour should be taking stock not doing penance. But some acknowledgement that they arrived at an election campaign without an actual campaign, might be useful.
If you’re having a sausage sizzle and you don’t have any sausages, that’s not a vibe issue. It’s that the central ingredient isn’t there.
Audrey Young asked Chris Hipkins what sort of Leader of the Opposition he wants to be. He talked about “highlighting how we would do things differently, and charting a different course”, which echoes David Lange’s belief that if you want to be elected you have to look like a government in waiting.
But then Chris Hipkins said, “you won’t see much of that in the first few months, because we need to take stock and we need to the opportunity to reflect and refresh.”
Good God. The first few months? (Is Labour on sabbatical?) By that stage the Government will be insisting that everyone called Wiremu change their name to William.”
Dec 31, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read
Here’s how it went down 5 minutes ago.





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Dec 23, 2023 16 tweets 8 min read
GAZA CHRISTMAS CARTOON THREAD:

Martin Rowson @Guardian on Christmas in Gaza – cartoon

THREAD theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
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Christmas Gaza- Times of India
#GazaChristmas timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cartoons/line-…
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Dec 13, 2023 8 tweets 2 min read
#COP @UNFCCC Exec Sec Simon Stiell is about to make a brief statement outside the Plenary and take questions from media. Part 1
Dec 11, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read
It is very hard to understand what exactly the COP presidency was thinking today releasing this draft of the key stone Global Stock Take GST text.

Given the positive atmosphere leading up to the release of this text, it feels as if he has set a match to burn 🔥 his own COP Presidency down just as it has begun.

And the absence of UNFCCC Exec Sec. Simon Stiell from this afternoons interrupted plenary suddenly makes a lot more sense.
This was the interruption. From a 12 year climate activist from East Timor. It took place roughly an hour before the Presidency’s draft text was released, a text which now looks set to ignite protests across the planet. [I caught the very end of this as she was being hauled away.]

I expect she will receive a hero’s welcome on her return to Indonesia.
Dec 11, 2023 8 tweets 3 min read
This bit considers the language around equity which has been a very hot topic in many of the civil society discussions here in Dubai. Equity = fairness and the context here is about finding a way to acknowledge that the phase-out of fossil fuels inherently bumps up against and gives effect to the “differentiated rights and responsibilities” language in the UNFCCC framework convention.

Helpfully there is now a first draft practical assessment (ngo report) on the table which suggests how this could work in practice.
This is the report, which I was kindly given a copy of on day one.

The report and a list of endorsers can be found at equityreview.org
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Dec 10, 2023 8 tweets 3 min read
A short thread on Uganda 🇺🇬 whose pavilion I have had the pleasure of dropping into a couple of times over the past two days. I attended a recording session with three speakers on the subject of the plastics waste treaty with three youth speakers. Each gave impassioned speeches on the subject from different perspectives. 1/6
2/6 ^^ the first speaker addressed the issue from an overview of the treaty perspective what it is for and why it is needed. The plastics packaging industry which is an offshoot of the Fossil Fuel Industrial Complex causes a lot of issues in terms of contributing to the waste stream in developing nations, and unfortunately many plastics contain a lot of toxic chemicals & are not recyclable.
Dec 8, 2023 20 tweets 8 min read
Packed Plenary today at #COP28 considering progress so far and perhaps signing off some documents on work which has been completed.

In comparison to the Westminster parliamentary system this phase is a bit like a collective report back from all select committees to to committee of the whole of Parliament. Not precisely this, but similar.

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From my recollection this really is an astonishing turnout. Not only are most of the nation state tables occupied but so are most of the NGOs and Civil society desks. Nearly all seats are filled.

The overall interest shown by attendees in this - a largely technical part of the process - is definitely different from what I saw in both Glasgow and Sharm el sheikh (Egypt). I’m assuming this represents a higher level of energy and desire to understand the #COP process.
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Dec 5, 2023 10 tweets 3 min read
These remarks by UAE’s Sultan Al Jaber 2 weeks ago are now at the heart of the Phaseout vs Phasedown of fossil fuels debate which has always been at the heart of what was going to be deliberated here at #cop28

Through making these remarks and then seemingly seeking to gaslight the world by claiming that he didn’t Sultan Al Jaber has now brought this question very clearly to centre stage, and highlighted how much self interest among the super wealthy interests behind fossil fuel exploitation is an obstacle to the scale of energy transformation which is needed to keep 1.5o degrees alive.
This article from a couple of days ago, resurrecting the earlier remarks had launched what is now a firestorm of controversy about the role of fossil fuel interests, nation states, lobbyists and financiers in obstructing the path to net-zero carbon emissions.

“Cop28 president says there is ‘no science’ behind demands for phase-out of fossil fuels”
Dec 5, 2023 12 tweets 5 min read
The mood of #cop28 has changed dramatically. The UAE 🇦🇪 COP which had been peaceful & ambiant is now activated and in some circles angry following an apparent crack-down on civil society protests and a unfortunate press conference by the COP President on the “fossil fuel phase-out Vs phase/down debate.
Image Two out of an already very limited number of locations for civil society activism “actions” were closed yesterday, the first I reported on in the quoted thread below yesterday.
Dec 3, 2023 5 tweets 4 min read
Video Message from The Holy Father Pope Francis on the occasion of the inauguration of the ‘Faith Pavilion’ at #cop28 in Dubai. His message is for religious unity and Peace & Climate.

December 3, 2023
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Full text of Pope Francis’s message:

Dear brothers and sisters,

I warmly greet you, and I deeply regret not being able to be with you. I entrust Cardinal Parolin with the message I would have liked to convey to you, and I want to say ‘thank you’. Thank you, because for the first time, you have created a faith pavilion within the COP conference. And thank you because this testifies to the willingness to work together. Today, the world needs alliances that are not against someone, but for the benefit of everyone. It is urgent that religions, without falling into the trap of syncretism, set a good example by working together; not for their own interests or those of a particular group, but for the interests of our world. Among these, the most important right now are peace and climate.

Let us, as religious representatives, set an example to show that change is possible, to demonstrate respectful and sustainable lifestyles, and let us fervently ask the leaders of nations to preserve our common home. This is particularly requested by the little ones and the poor, whose prayers reach the throne of the Most High. For their future and the future of all, let us safeguard creation and protect our common home; let us live in peace and promote peace.

Thank you.
Dec 2, 2023 12 tweets 3 min read
The death toll of children in the Tigray Wars was in all likelihood higher in both 2021 and 2022. But the UNHRC & OHCHR did not investigate this in their reports for either year.

Most of the deaths in these wars were were of child soldiers forcibly recruited into the Tigrayan Defence Forces.
This is not to detract from the horror of the war in Gaza. But rather to highlight an injustice against the children of Tigray which for reasons unfathomable was monumentally mismanaged by the peak bodies of the UN. And about which the truth is overdue in being investigated, revealed or even acknowledged by Western news media.
Nov 30, 2023 9 tweets 5 min read
« How shortsighted is humanity? Will we all perish tomorrow morning? No. »

Francois Pickard on the opening of #COP28 which begins in earnest over the next 2 days with National heads of states delivering remarks and holding meetings.

My third COP. And it oooks like it will be another momentous one.

THE DEBATE • FRANCE 24 English via @YouTube

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Nov 2, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
This article is a little old 26th Oct. but as today is the day that we will likely find that Seymour & Luxon do not have a majority it’s most relevant today. scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2310…
The problem - and this is my opinion not GC’s - is that nobody in the Labour Caucus seems to be willing to step up and take on the position of leader. There were some half hearted attempts to discuss having a leadership vote in caucus after the defeat. But the obvious candidate for caretaker PM Grant Robertson seems to still be unwilling to step up. He should be dragooned IMHO. And if. It him then Parker Sepoloni or Woods.

My understanding is that Chris Hipkins has not even picked up the phone to James Shaw (Greens) so probably also not Rawiri (Te Pati Māori) either.

This sort of uncertainty in Govt formation is a feature not a bug of MMP. And I think an illustration of MMP just doing its thing - and of an electorate which is learning how the system works. But it breaks the system if the 2nd Major party rules out forming a Govt.

Chris Hipkins at the moment seems to wwant to simply hand over the keys to the Beehive to Luxon. And in doing so I think he has effectively abdicated his responsibility - and therefore needs to resign to let the Caucus decide who should pick up the phone to Winston, Rawiri & James.
Oct 9, 2023 12 tweets 3 min read
#GazaWar Thoughts:

Hamas’s horrific attack has plunged the world back into terror mode. Which is a terrible thing for Israel. But also for all of us - the entire planet. Escalation to an attack on Iran is the immediate threat top of mind geopolitically.

But there are many more things to be worried about on the ground, particularly wrt to civilian casualties and human rights in both Israel and Palestine. A blood bath is threatened. 1/? My initial response was of shock I saw the drone attack on patrol vehicle near Gaza, which was both novel and ominous in the form of both ab escalation and a warning.

Israel has been on the threshold of falling back into another terror intifada for years. But Hamas has been very calibrated in its responses to endless provocations till now.

This is more like a Palestinian attempt at a 6-day War sized reset to the conflict. 2/?
Sep 11, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
I’ve recently watched two videos which I think are very helpful for anyone seeking to understand where the #UkraineRussianWar is currently at.

The first is this one: Col. Macgregor speaks plainly about the weaknesses of Ukraine and the complete failure of #ukrainecounteroffensive before moving in to a very erudite discussion of the bigger picture and what it means for Europe in particular. Thé interviewer is Swiss from Die Welt.

Col Douglas Macgregor: The Russians Are Breaking Through via @YouTube The second is this rather long and for the most part fairly boring recent meeting from of the foreign affairs committee of the European Parliament which is disappointingly shallow, both during the briefing and reply from @NATO Sec.Gen Stoltenberg, and the lengthy mostly self serving set of questions asked by MEPs.

Sep 8, 2023 6 tweets 3 min read
This is a very good, short wrap up from @firstpost’s Vantage with @palkisu on the Africa Climate Summit in Nairobi, touching on the core issues of disagreement between the global south and the developed nations on #ClimateTransition #ClimateEquity in recent global climate negotiations in Glasgow #COP26, Egypt #COP27, and which are set to come up again soon in Dubai at #COP28.

The disputes are about implementation of provisions in the Paris Climate Agreement which Western Nations appear to be unwilling or unable to honour.

The outcomes from the summit at this point appear to be poised to see an expansion of fossil fuel exploitation in Africa which whilst arguably equitable in theory, is both terrible for the climate and which history suggests will primarily benefit western nations and African kleptocrats rather than the 1.4 billion strong peoples of Africa.

Notably the summit takes place amid a geopolitical crisis in west Africa accompanied by a financial crisis in Africa’s largest economy Nigeria which has had its foreign reserves looted by corrupt officials and oligarchs. In the wider West African region there is now a geopolitical crisis with competition between France, Russia and the US over exploitation of mineral & energy resources.

At the same time a spate of coups which began in Guinea and now includes Burkina Faso, Mali, and most recently Niger and Gabon. Reporting on these coups suggests that the post-colonial, colonisation issues on the continent remain seriously problematic.

The Paris Global Financial Summit in June which preceded the Africa Climate Summit included what “appeared to be an agreement” on a reform to the post WWII Bretton Woods global financial order which is yet to be implemented.
Aug 25, 2023 11 tweets 4 min read
Ok so at 37 minutes in (near the end of the edited Q&A portion of this press conference the ECOWAS spokesperson begins « we don’t want people to be confused » - which is somewhat ironic given how confusing this latest restatement of threatened use of force to restore constitutional order in Niger is., The-war-that-has-not-yet-started-but-won’t-go-away appears to be back in the frame again after this rather desperate press conference accusing media in the region of being hysterical about the ECOWAS decision to keep use of military force (albeit not invasion) on the table in this ongoing dispute.

The main argument the spokesperson seems to make here is that ECOWAS has powers to do this from some rather old « instruments » and has decided to do so.
Aug 17, 2023 10 tweets 8 min read
#Niger/#NigerCoup/#WestAfrica/#ECOWAS Crisis youtube survey thread. 5/5

"Declan Walsh is back on the war beat - big time publishing a series of reports on the "Niger-war-that-has-not-yet-started" but won't completely go away yet either.

HEADLINE: Coup in Niger Upends U.S. Terrorism Fight and Could Open a Door for Russia

STANDFIRST: The military takeover could force the Pentagon to withdraw 1,100 American troops and close drone bases in the West African country."

His latest piece as acontributir to a tripple bylined @NYTimes piece on the developing crisis (see an extract image 3) frames the conflict as a new-cold-war matter).

Fortunately any plan for this war to start seems to have been nipped in the bud by the African Union in a statement issued today.

Under the principle of subsidiarity the decision of the AU 16 August to rule out military intervention in Niger, ought to be the final word on the matter for ECOWAS (which has been debating it a lot). But everything seems to not be going exactly as planned in this crisis

The @NYTimes has been covering this war closely from the outset though including a brace of stories about the Russia -Africa summit. Which was certainly dramatic but not particularly well attended.

Question now is will the UNSC weigh in given the massively high stakes. The continuing stated position of the US in favour of no military intervention - ought to make this straight forward, as this is also the Russian position. But at present the French Russian and US (3 of the P5) all to be a little at odds with each other on this particular issue.

And given @Joe Biden's call to Tinubu today (why?) one has to wonder what @USAmbUN @LindaT_G's riding instructions are on this matter.

Meanwhile the UN Presidency of UNSC for August still hasn't published a forecast program of work - which is odd. And no meetings on Niger are scheduled, nor have any been held & France and the US appear to be not getting on well - based on reports in French Media.

Nor has a program of work been published for the work of the month of August. Nor has there been a meeting of the Security Council on the situation in Niger, yet. As Russia, the US and France are seemingly now all at odds with each other about aspects of this situation, that may stay the case for a bit longer.

Here's that Screenshot in case you missed it. Image
Aug 15, 2023 9 tweets 4 min read
The sun has set but still it’s flame 🔥 burns on the horizon. Image Image