Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Journalist. Editor. Entrepreneur. Founder https://t.co/b6HbxvlPDn. These tweets are my own. #AllInThisTogether #PoeticRevolution #MoreInCommon #DesertRain
Joseph Cederwall Profile picture 1 added to My Authors
12 Jun
Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #ArabianStorms rainfall forecasts follow.

I was wondering if this might happen. With all the moisture streaming along the North African coast and north east from central Africa. Also some forecasts had this indicated as a possibility.
Admittedly the rain is very light. But it is June and close to Solstice, the hottest month in this part of the world. Here we see the broader picture. The #EuropeBigWet is continuing in a fairly stable pattern for another 48 hours still.
Here's a close up of the North Western quadrant with some big storms bursting to life near the Morocco/Algeria border.
Read 23 tweets
12 Jun
What a difference a gnarly little low makes. The till now stationary #EuropeBigWet is about to be blown away. Which will be a relief to some. But there are still a bunch of storms coming.
Here in France where we had been expecting to largely ride this out a bunch of big rain events are now coming. Which I will enjoy and will probably also be welcomed by farmers.
A series of North Atlantic storms will soon break the current traffic jam caused by the stationary low over Eastern Europe.

This 10 day simulation shows one possible scenario but the underlying situation is absurdly complicated, so don’t count on this as a guide.
Read 8 tweets
11 Jun
Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.

The images below from @NASA below show 3 north-south cross sections of the Sahara taken this morning.
1. Morocco to Ivory Coast
2. Algeria to Nigeria & DRC
3. Levant to Uganda.
An updated precipitable water animation - 10 Days - for the Sahara. The transit of water in a north easterly direction is finally starting to slow down, albeit not just yet.
10-day rainfall forecasts from four models for North Africa.
Read 21 tweets
11 Jun
This is an incredible resource to assist in understanding of the Tigray conflict. Updated today June 11th. From @GeographyUGent

It provides a holistic overview of the situation including information on the status of the ongoing war.
This map shows military actions identified and documented by the team. @GeographyUGent has been studying the Tigray region for 60 years and has a deep network of contacts in the region from which they are gathering information.

12 "Conflict incidents" are included for May 2021.
@GeographyUGent 17 "Conflict Incidents" are reported from the month of April. And as of April 23rd this is their map of territorial control. At that time the TDF (Tigray Defence Force) was still in control of significant areas across the region.
Read 4 tweets
11 Jun
Ok so this is what this is all about.

@IlhanMN @Ilhan doing her job and politely asking legitimate questions - ones which are being asked by many people all around the world - about the jurisdiction off the nascent International Criminal Court.
Given the absurd over the top responses you would think she had said something offensive. But it seems that she said none of the things that a range of nut jobs are accusing her of saying.
The truth is that Israel and the US arbitrarily exercise their view of justice via an arbitrary policy of targeted assassination. This is not a controversial observation it is the simple truth.

They also refuse to recognise the ICC.
Read 10 tweets
11 Jun
Vaccinated!

Super efficient delivery at Dinan vaccination center. Tiny needle. Painless. No sign of 5G connection yet :)

Super thankful. To scientists who created this miracle of science, & all the people involved in the delivery.

2nd appointment in July.

Vive La France!
‘Tis an exceedingly beautiful place to get vaccinated Dinan. Afterwards I visited the church here which is nearly 1000 years old. Dating back to the crusades and before William of Normandie conquered Britain.
There is an article in French about the Basilica of St Sauveur here >> fr.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basilique…

I joined the choir when we lived here briefly in 2017.

Today I visited the chapels of Jesus and Mary and gave thanks for life in general and vaccinations in particular.
Read 4 tweets
10 Jun
Today's #EuropeBigWet report has a twist in it. The arrival of a new element in the model forecasts, a zippy little storm that looks a bit cyclonic heading towards the UK.

Today's update follows.

Follow #EuropeBigWet to get a daily update.

Here's a view from this morning.
These four satellite still images are taken at around the same time and show the picture before the heat of the day started heating up the storms.
And here's a view from this evening, which is almost identical to yesterday evening.
Read 9 tweets
10 Jun
Today's #NorthAfrica and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.

Below a satellite picture taken this morning of the #HornOfAfrica.

#Ethiopia #Somaliland #Somalia
The wider region this evening.

More #ArabianStorms and #Abbay convection. The Atlantic continues to be active now looks set to deliver a surprise summer storm early next week. [See #EuropeBigWet for that coverage.]
This close up shows more Atlantic moisture pouring into North Africa over Morroco and Western Sahara. You can also see a substantial dust cloud is now forming which will be helping to suppress Atlantic cyclones.
Read 16 tweets
10 Jun
In the EU-US round-table [webcast.ec.europa.eu/us-aid << Live Now ] @NRC_Egeland from the Norwegian Refugee Council has now twice said that the humanitarian aid effort in Tigray needs assistance from the Ethiopian Govt. to be effective.
A column from Jan Egeland, Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council, and Jean-Michel Grand, Executive Director of Action Against Hunger UK on the Tigray Crisis news.trust.org/item/202105040…
Aid delivery requires cooperation with, not alienation of the Ethiopian Govt. Today's roundtable was effective in raising the profile of the conflict, and unfolding humanitarian disaster underway in Tigray. But absent an Ethiopian speaker was not good for encouraging cooperation.
Read 4 tweets
9 Jun
This seems like a useful piece of advice to @JoeBiden.

Personally I think the gloves need to come off with Manchin. Even if only behind the scenes.

In the 3 decades I have been watching the Democratic Party this shit has been every present. It needs to stop.
The @gop is on its knees as never before. An ascendant Democratic Party getting things done could eviscerate them come November 2022.

The clueless seem to think that voters want reasonableness, they don’t, they want competent govt. that delivers.
@JoeManchinWV needs to understand that he loses West Virginia either way unless he plays ball. Right now he might as well be a Republican. The role of red state blue-dog democrats needs to be ended.

If you want to be in Govt. and do stuff you need all your votes.
Read 5 tweets
9 Jun
Today's #NorthAfrica and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.

Below a satellite picture this morning with all the Nile basins including the #Abbay/#BlueNile in #Ethiopia (where it passes through the #GERD) + White Nile, #Sudan, #SouthSudan, #Uganda & the states around Lake Victoria.
10 day rainfall forecasts from the CMC, KMA, GFS and ECMWF models for June 9th through 19th.
A few animations. This one is connected to the separate tweet threads about #EuropeBigWet, which appear to be being driven by Jets of wet air coming off the Atlantic and crossing the Sahara into Europe.

This animation shows a jet crossing Libya and pumping water into Georgia.
Read 17 tweets
9 Jun
Today's #EuropeBigWet update.

Still raining lots.....

Image 1. A live rainfall map as of now from @Meteoblue
Image 2. A high res satellite image as of this morning @NASA Modis.
This first animation is from this morning and shows the clouds moving in over the UK and Ireland. Not too much rain expected there though. Mainly in Scotland.

The rest of Europe has settled down over night bit it is still very wet.
Here we see the storm over Russia and former Soviet states. It has lost some of its organisation over night but is still a circulation of thunderstorms. At the bottom right a new injection of storms is coming up the right flank through Turkey.
Read 6 tweets
8 Jun
Today's forecasts for #NorthAfrica, and the #HornOfAfrica follow.

This 1st image shows the monsoon spreading westwards across the Bay of Bengal. I think it is relevant to the rains in Africa but you will need to wait till the final tweet to see how.

#Ethiopia #Sudan #GERD #Nile
The strength of the West African Monsoon continues to grow as you can see in the animation above. During the current active period (See also #EuropeBigWet) the Sahara is forecast to reach a point where there is water over most of the great desert. Here are 10d rainfall forecasts.
Read 21 tweets
8 Jun
Today's #EuropeBigWet update. Russia is getting pummelled. Italy is on fire with thunderstorms and central Europe is getting busy.

For context click on the hashtag for earlier episodes. This has been building up for a while. Thread....
It started modestly even though the warm air over Europe is increasingly saturated with moisture. And then as the day got hotter the thunderstorms got active.
This afternoon Italy in particular looks as if it is undergoing something potentially rather dangerous.
Read 11 tweets
8 Jun
This thread needs some additional context lest it be interpreted as suggesting that #KelloMedia @KelloMedia is an unreliable source.

But deep fakes are a problem and authenticating recordings and videos in this day and age is a significant problem.
This recording stands out because:
a) its explosive nature and
b) because of its wide dissemination and the implications that come from it in relation to the fairness of the election.
c) because it was explicitly denied by the Prime Minister.
The also addresses two wider issues, the first of which relates to elections everywhere, and the second which relates to the specific conditions of this election.

In the CPJ safety handbook for journalists misinformation is directly addressed. cpj.org/2021/06/ethiop…
Read 36 tweets
8 Jun
After acknowledging this recording is fake
@KjetilTronvoll tweeted this BBC news report based on it.

Media and those involved in peace & conflict need to be careful with unverified information when engaged in an information warfare environment.
Here is his earlier tweet. He claims that a high ranking party member of the Prosperity Party authenticated it for him.

The lesson in this is simple: If you don't know whether incendiary information is true or false don't spread it.
The @guardian has now published a ill-considered incendiary op-ed by @KjetilTronvoll containing his reckons on a subject he doesn't appear to be treating with care. He seeks resignations over a complex war the details of which remain far from clear. theguardian.com/global-develop…
Read 14 tweets
7 Jun
Let me get this straight professor. You now acknowledge inadvertently spreading misinformation/disinformation in the lead up to this election, you continue to accuse the #Ethiopian Govt. of engaging in it.
As a professor of peace/conflict studies you would be aware that this is Ethiopia’s first shot at a real free and fair democratic election, and you would be aware of the already heightened domestic very lethal tensions, and not just in Tigray. And yet you continue to stoke these.
The Ethiopian Govt is clear they have asked Eritrean troops to leave but they have not yet left, even though undertakings to do so were provided to the U.S.

It is also clear that Tigrayan forces initiated this war and continue - with assistance unknown - to pursue it.
Read 4 tweets
7 Jun
Today's #Sahara & #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts follow.

It is now two weeks till the first open democratic #Ethiopian election.
To open here's a high resolution satellite image of the Nile Basin from Cairo to Lake Victoria including Eastern Ethiopia where the #GERD dam is located, and where the Blue Nile - source of much of the Nile's flow - originates in Lake Tana (the heart shaped lake).
We will zoom in on the #HornOfAfrica starting with the wider picture. On the left side of this image you can see a #WesternSahara water transport event which is significantly impacting weather conditions in Europe. (See more in the attached thread )
Read 17 tweets
7 Jun
Today's #EuropeBigWet Update.

The main source of water into the European zone remains a flow of water across the Sahara north, now on a broad front bringing rain along a 1700km wide front from France to the Aegean.
Notably the unusual circulation of thunderstorms north of the Black Sea has grown to 2000kms wide and now extends all the way to the Baltic. This system appeared with the #WesternSaharaPlume and appears to be fed by it.
This animation from @Meteoblue shows an apparently connected outflow heading East across northern Russia.
Read 10 tweets
7 Jun
FWIW it is outside common Parliamentary procedure for there to be such a big delay between the formation of a Govt. and a vote of confidence.

The #Israel Knesset should be convened this week to hold the vote. A few days at most is appropriate. 13 Days is not.
Here the circumstances include a long fraught process in Govt. formation multiple elections and a War.

@IsraeliPM Bibi Netanyahu has tried many times now and failed. Parliamentary principles suggest this vote ought to held as soon as possible. This week. theguardian.com/world/2021/jun…
Netanyahu is now playing a Trumpian game of questioning the legitimacy of the election that he lost. This lacks credibility given that he has lost multiple times. As PM elect Naftali Bennet says, Bibi is now using incitement, and not for the first time. google.fr/amp/s/www.alja…
Read 11 tweets
6 Jun
Europe is already very wet. Its about to get a lot wetter.

The 2021 #EuropeBigWet is already underway. Now the Atlantic is about to fully flood the zone.
This is a 16-Day animation starting today and running till June 22nd. Its going to be a very wet #SummerSolstice.

#EuropeWeather #Europe #Weather

#Portugal #Spain #UK #Ireland #France #Spain #Belgium #Germany #Poland #Italy #Switzerland #Hungary #Ukraine #Roumania #Czechia
This is the GEFS ensemble rain forecast for Europe also over 16 days. When the computer simulations think together the conclusion seems to be that it is going to rain everywhere every day.
Read 6 tweets