Presumably this is this storm that is just getting underway on the Yemen/Saudi Border. @Arab_Storms
Forecast weather parameters as at 7am [From @NOAA GFS computer model latest run] :
- High levels of précipitable airborn water, needed for storm
- High levels of CAPE (energy per kg of water) = unstable air = thunderstorm potential
The other factor is the rapidly rising temperature (animation here runs from midnight Monday to midnight Tuesday. The temperature peaks in the early - which is when we tend to see thunderstorm development rapidly accelerate.
The other factor in play is the arrival of cold air coming in from the arctic, having traversed Europe. The collision of this cold dry ai (black/brown in this 48 hour animation) and the warm wet air helps produce the forecast high levels of rainfall/hail.
And finally this animation shows the 2 m temperature anomaly (blue and green shows colder than normal) through to midnight on Friday. Very high levels of rainfall forecast in Yemen is the reason for particularly high anomaly there.
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