Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Building Common Futures, a new energy transition consultancy. @Sustainable2050 at https://t.co/mhHG13IoUq and in the blue sky. Also on LinkedIn. #20JanuaryTwexit

Apr 28, 2021, 19 tweets

Thread: today, the 'reopening' of the Netherlands started: end of our evening curfew, cafe terraces open in the afternoons, all shops open without appointment. Not great timing though.

Today, over 8,000 new corona infections were reported in the Netherlands.

The number of Covid-19 patients in Dutch ICUs is over 800, close to its highest level since last year's first wave.

The Netherlands currently ranks #12 in the world in the number of new cases reported per million inhabitants. Only 3 countries with more than 10 million people have a higher number: Turkey, Sweden, and Argentina. In all 3, the number was down last week, but in NL, it went up.

NL Minister @hugodejonge halts notifications from national corona prevention app Coronamelder, for at least 48 hours, because of Android privacy risk. nos.nl/artikel/237865…

~300 people are being admitted to Dutch hospitals with Covid-19 every day, including today.

The speed of the Dutch vaccination campaign has gone down by 20-25%, compared to its peak two weeks ago. We're currently vaccinating around 0.5% of the population per day.

Business as usual in the Netherlands.

Top: "Hospital staff: situation is dire"

Bottom: "It seems to early for further 'reopening' measures"

No shit, Sherlock.

More 30-50 year olds in Dutch ICUs with Covid-19 now than even in the first wave of a year ago.

.. and then there's 600 Covid-19 patients in NL who get oxygen at home, as news site nu.nl found out(!). We don't know their ages(!!), but it's assumed there's a lot of younger people in that group as well.

Best estimate of Covid-19 deaths in the Netherlands: 24,500, from March 2020 through January of this year.
Daily count "only" has around 17,000 through April. nu.nl/coronavirus/61…

That means Covid-19 has now already killed over 13 times more people in the Netherlands than our infamous 1953 flooding disaster, which led to the construction of the multi-billion Delta Works.

This time, the national response is different though. Central question now seems to be whether there's enough free ICU beds already to e.g. organize big parties again.

Today, our Health Minister complains that people got less disciplined now govt has started the ‘reopening’ of the country (while the ICUs are still full), delaying the end of the corona crisis here. Exactly as one could foresee, I’d add.
nu.nl/coronavirus/61…

Let’s hope that the growing share of vaccinated people (plus perhaps warmer weather) have an impact soon. But this is gambling.

"Optimism on 'reopening' evaporated"
Perhaps because it was unfounded, and Dutch govt took the measures prematurely, going against the advice of its own experts?

.. as you could see coming from a mile away:

In the end, we'll probably escape a new corona wave in the Netherlands. Just that because of this govt gamble, dozens of people will have died, hundreds of surgeries will have been postponed, and many unnecessary cases of long Covid will have developed.

Although the numbers of infections and hospitalizations here are down a bit this week, 43 Covid-19 deaths were reported in the Netherlands today; the highest number since 23 March. We're definitely not out of the woods yet.

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