Thread: today, the 'reopening' of the Netherlands started: end of our evening curfew, cafe terraces open in the afternoons, all shops open without appointment. Not great timing though.
Today, over 8,000 new corona infections were reported in the Netherlands.
The number of Covid-19 patients in Dutch ICUs is over 800, close to its highest level since last year's first wave.
The Netherlands currently ranks #12 in the world in the number of new cases reported per million inhabitants. Only 3 countries with more than 10 million people have a higher number: Turkey, Sweden, and Argentina. In all 3, the number was down last week, but in NL, it went up.
NL Minister @hugodejonge halts notifications from national corona prevention app Coronamelder, for at least 48 hours, because of Android privacy risk. nos.nl/artikel/237865…
~300 people are being admitted to Dutch hospitals with Covid-19 every day, including today.
The speed of the Dutch vaccination campaign has gone down by 20-25%, compared to its peak two weeks ago. We're currently vaccinating around 0.5% of the population per day.
Business as usual in the Netherlands.
Top: "Hospital staff: situation is dire"
Bottom: "It seems to early for further 'reopening' measures"
No shit, Sherlock.
More 30-50 year olds in Dutch ICUs with Covid-19 now than even in the first wave of a year ago.
.. and then there's 600 Covid-19 patients in NL who get oxygen at home, as news site nu.nl found out(!). We don't know their ages(!!), but it's assumed there's a lot of younger people in that group as well.
Best estimate of Covid-19 deaths in the Netherlands: 24,500, from March 2020 through January of this year.
Daily count "only" has around 17,000 through April. nu.nl/coronavirus/61…
That means Covid-19 has now already killed over 13 times more people in the Netherlands than our infamous 1953 flooding disaster, which led to the construction of the multi-billion Delta Works.
This time, the national response is different though. Central question now seems to be whether there's enough free ICU beds already to e.g. organize big parties again.
Today, our Health Minister complains that people got less disciplined now govt has started the ‘reopening’ of the country (while the ICUs are still full), delaying the end of the corona crisis here. Exactly as one could foresee, I’d add. nu.nl/coronavirus/61…
Let’s hope that the growing share of vaccinated people (plus perhaps warmer weather) have an impact soon. But this is gambling.
"Optimism on 'reopening' evaporated"
Perhaps because it was unfounded, and Dutch govt took the measures prematurely, going against the advice of its own experts?
In the end, we'll probably escape a new corona wave in the Netherlands. Just that because of this govt gamble, dozens of people will have died, hundreds of surgeries will have been postponed, and many unnecessary cases of long Covid will have developed.
Although the numbers of infections and hospitalizations here are down a bit this week, 43 Covid-19 deaths were reported in the Netherlands today; the highest number since 23 March. We're definitely not out of the woods yet.
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Nasty climate tipping point in sight, especially for NW-Europe! "Nothing drastic will happen at the moment we cross it - which might be soon - but after that the collapse of the current will be unstoppable." And could lead to rapid regional cooling, not so far away from us.
This is a simplified map of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), bringing heat from the South Atlantic, via the Caribbean to the European side of the North Atlantic. On cooling there, the water sinks to 2-3 km depth and takes the cold to the South.
Without the AMOC, the North of Europe - especially Iceland, Scandinavia, and Britain - would be much colder than it now is.
Agreement between right-far-right Dutch coalition parties published now. Thread with some points on climate and energy. These are the plans, but execution will of course be key. Wilders and his PVV are in full climate denial, like much of the EU's far right.
1/
- Stick to existing agreements, no higher ambitions than EU policy
- No rules for improving energy efficiency of owner-occupied homes. Obligation (from 2026) to install heat pump on replacing gas-fired heating boiler canceled.
- End of EV subsidies in 2025.
2/
- Study how zero-emission zones in cities kan be delayed to create exceptions for entrepreneurs, but creating such zones remains decision of municipality.
- An end to subsidies for Bio-energy with CCS (for negative emissions) as soon as possible.
3/
Starting a week-long business & pleasure trip to Spain, by train!
Hope to be in Barcelona this evening :)
I'll keep you posted in this🧵
The plan for today: Utrecht - Rotterdam - Paris - Barcelona. The tricky part is changing trains in Paris. Theoretically 2 hours should be more than enough to get from Paris-Nord to Gare de Lyon (the rail planner irresponsibly proposed 1 hour), but @Eurostar is often delayed (2/n)
Made it to Rotterdam, at least ;)
Bit very early, but hey, why hurry on a Saturday morning? (3/n)
Reading the Dutch "Action agenda congestion low-voltage grids".
The accelating energy transition already brings grid issues here. In the low-voltage distribution grid, the growing number of solar panels (PV), electric cars (EV) and (hybrid) heat pumps ((h)WP) is the challenge.
Without measures, a large and growing number of households would experience periods with too high or too low voltage (over- resp. onderspanning) or risk of grid failure.
Measures are categorized in: 1) accelerating grid expansion 2) more efficient use of the grid capacity 3) saving energy as much as possible.
1) already gets a lot of attention, and each of the three main DSOs plans to spend around €1 billion/year. Many hurdles though.
"Transition doesn't make energy cheaper, but to the contrary, significantly more expensive"
Headline in Dutch @Volkskrant yesterday, 9 days before the elections here. "Consumers and companies will pay 92% more for electricity and natural gas by 2030".
Hmm, let's look into that.
Firstly, as others have already pointed out too, it's a comparison between 2020 and 2030. In 2020, energy was cheap: Covid reduced demand, and Russia hadn't started its energy war and attack on Ukraine yet.
Compared with 2023, not a lot would remain of the "+92%".
Looking into the forecasted price increase 2020-2030 it has three components: 1. Tax (Belasting) +€5 billion. That'd be a political choice, which has little to do with the energy transition. 2. Grid (Netbeheer) +€5 billion. Increase to be expected indeed.
But ...