Thread by @andrewflood

This mornings NISRA weekly deaths bulletin for northern Ireland brings the likely total dying with Covid19 during the pandemic to 2957 or 1569 deaths per million. The equivalent for the south is currently 64% of that at 999 deaths per million /1

The NISRA weekly update appears Fridays dated to previous Friday & captures about 28% more deaths than the Department of Health does. It counts death certs where Covid19 is mentioned as a factor, in last quarterly update it found 88.7% also had Covid19 as underlying cause /2

Excess deaths in comparison with the previous 5 years were again negative this week, the pandemic excess deaths peaked the week ending 26/2/21 at 2,518. That total has fallen since to 2,298 as all but one week since was below the five year average /3

Given the vaccination roll out and the decline in cases it seems very unlikely excess deaths will again rise by 220 to above 2518 as a result of new Covid cases confirming March suggestion that by measure of ‘excess deaths’ the pandemic may be considered to have come to an end /4

Each day I've used the DoH deaths announcement to calculate the likely NISRA total for that day amongst other stats I add to this thread tracking the pandemic in the north. Last weeks thread linked below, this weeks will continue here /5

Todays cases in the north were 125% last Friday but this weeks 88% last week. There was some sort of adjustment applied to vaccination figures overnight so dose 1 total actually went down and dose 2 went up, dose 1 still just under 50%

The north has stopped updating some data at week but provisionally todays is
0 deaths at DoH 2145, NISRA 2957+
90 cases to provisional 120,285
Todays cases are 114% last Saturday
1st dose: 932426 (+4978) 49.5%
Full 422,234 (+4288) 22.4%
+9266