With the trap carefully baited & SF blundering into it here’s the spring being sprung. Farage & Dowson cackling with glee as their weird investment pays off. It’s a trap all the way down of course because … /1

https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1787012943118242153

…. The reality is the border as it exists is not policeable. So a token PR effort will be easily evaded but with anti ‘Open borders’ politics accepted you are in a cycle of closing minor roads, checkpoints & fences. Be putting the watchtowers back up in no time /2

Finbar Cafferkey who died resisting the Russian invasion of Ukraine Apr19 was a friend & comrade who for the two decades I knew him consistently put himself in harms way to oppose injustice. Whether that was fighting Shell or ISIS or going to Kos to help refugees come ashore/1 This video is him singing Glengad Strand outside Mountjoy prison in 2009 when another Shell to Sea activitist was held within. These photos show him at S2S protests from 2008 where he is in the sea under a digger dumping tons of gravel to 2013 confronting Shell's security /2

Reluctantly returning to #Covid19Ireland updates until the current crisis passes. Todays 1425 Covid hospital cases is 138% last Thursday but the size of that increase will be partially driven by the bank holiday increasing discharges last week & delaying them this week /1 The running total of new hospital cases in last 7 days is a better guide, the 1240 new hospital cases this week is 112% previous week & well above January 2022 wave. Even allowing for so called 'incidental' increasing from 30% to 50% this is a huge pressure on healthcare /2

Ireland just had its highest every 24 hour number of New Hospital Cases at 225, the previous high was 209 on 21st January 2022. The government 'head in the sand' approach to the 'exit wave' has now put the health service under threat again & threatens the need for restrictions/1 The 1395 in hospital is 129% last Wednesday with average stay now at 9 days
1194 new hospital case this week is 108% previous
Donnelly has yet to create a new advisory committee & has no access to modelling so we are relying on his guesswork which is not confidence inspiring/2

Occasional #Covid19Ireland analysis - that 1308 in hospital today with Covid is 125% last Monday & one of the highest days of the pandemic but is this simply the human cost of the 'exit wave' or indicating something has gone very wrong /1 So far I'd lean towards this being the *expected* cost, the key metric of the proportion of cases that are hospital cases(1.36%) is still far below pre-Booster peak even though we know cases are comparatively undercounted since which would push that proportion up /2

Not happy to be doing this but the #Covid19Ireland hospital stats over last few days are not great - the 808 in hospital today are 132% last Monday so the obvious rise in the graph is not just the usual weekend increase /1 The number of new hospital cases each week has also risen almost as rapidly, 749 new hospital cases this week are 124% of the previous week /2

#Covid19Ireland ICU admissions are now very clearly post peak with
44 new ICU this week is 79% previous
New ICU is 0.03% cases, 5.15% new hospital cases
78 in ICU this morning is 88% last Saturday
I'm going to be posting less often with a focus on trends 'just in case'
/1 The post peak trend is also clear in hospital figures, everything points to an infection peak in the 1srt week of January
804 new hospital cases this week is 82% previous
New hospital cases are 0.6% cases
836 hospital is 89% last Saturday
/2

NPHET recommending lifting of most restrictions is onbasis of overall strategy & our recent experience of Omicron post booster where hospitalisation rates are low & stays short. 892 hospital cases is 87% last Friday as we continue to descend from a peak in lower range of fears/1 It's always tempting to want for data 1st & I have concerns around age incidence but with 819 new hospital cases this week at 82% previous we are also seeing a consistent post peak decline in numbers being sent to hospital /2

896 #Covid19Ireland hospital cases is 89% last Thursday - this view of hospital cases during the entire pandemic shows we peaked at about all last year but also that this & last Autumn we had peaks that were unfortunately brief interludes /1 The 853 new hospital cases this week is 84% previous, this measure normally leads hospital occupancy so its a useful warning of a change in direction /2

Common Sunday increase in #Covid19Ireland hospital cases due to delayed discharges at weekend with 984 in Hospital 137% last Sunday - that rate has slowed & this day last year there were 1,285 in hospital. Discharges typically catch up Tuesdays so tomorrow may see over 1,000 /1 Today last year there were a similar number of new hospital cases (134) but we were in the middle of a rapid escalation of occupancy due to xmas intergenerational mixing - so far this year is different because of higher discharge rate, probably vaccine driven /2

Actual #Covid19Ireland ICU occupancy added as a black dot onto NPHETs mid December scenarios for Omicron - if anything we have more cases than expected so ICU being this far below expected is remarkable & very good news indeed - see thread

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1479756744456904705

This tweet is doing number so added context
1. Cases appear to me to be at the worst end is scenarios but we lack capacity to detect that many
2. Hospitalisations until 3 days ago we’re heading for upper 1/3 of worst outcomes
… /2

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1479765902719598596

Todays 917 #COVID19Ireland hospital cases are 140% last Saturday but 2nd day of a row of falling numbers. I don't want to prematurely call that a peak, it will rise tomorrow, but it is very good news indeed which I'll explain in detail /1 Looking at last years hospital graph makes it clear we are on a very different trajectory. Today had 1153 in hospital and was the first 1/3 of several days of rapidly rising hospital cases as a consequence of xmas intergenerational mixing - we are not seeing that /2

936 #Covid19Ireland hospital cases today Jan7 is 137% last Friday but for the 1st time fewer than this day last year which had 1022. There were more admissions 161 this year V 131 last year but shorter lengths of stay mean numbers in hospital are now less with 3 day plateau/1 972 new hospital cases this week is 141% previous but after a long period of every day increase this to has plateaued over last 3 days - too early to call a trend but certainly welcome in comparison with the alternative which had us heading for 1700 is hospital by Thursday /2

Looking in details at 63 #Covid19Ireland deaths added week shows a larger proportion of younger ages, larger proportion at home and all but one in recent months from comparison with last weeks
Under 25 +2
25-34 +1
35-44 +1
45-54 NC
55-64 +4
65-74 +16
75-84 +15
85plus +24
/1 1 January 2021, 25 added to months covered by July NPHET scenarios - some commentators prematurely thought we had come further under deaths scn than was likely because they were not allowing for report lag
Jan+1
July+1
Aug+4
Sep+19
Oct+37 (Of which 21 were prior to this week)/2

Big surge in #Covid19Ireland ICU admissions today which TBH already throughs the push ahead with reopening into doubt. Highest occupancy since 19th March
86 ICU is 125% last Weds
49 ICU admissions this week is 153% previous
ICU admissions are 13% NHC, 0.5% cases /1 There was a lot of (strange) commentary that treated the August NPHET scenarios as missed targets & so is now wondering why healthcare can't cope now. Better to understand them as avoided fears that would have caused enormous disruption - which we are now heading towards /2

First time I’ve seen this very useful table from near the start of the pandemic which assigns a score to what’s essentially the housing crisis contribution to the pandemic - note Swedens position at the bottom of the table while we are 3rd worst at top

https://twitter.com/dazult_pdempsey/status/1373264129155342336

And breaking down some of the factors that make up that housing crisis score. Given the huge role of household transmission the advantage to having a lot of single occupier households where there is nobody else to infect is self evident in making it easier to control

https://twitter.com/dazult_pdempsey/status/1308738830225342466

Alarming #Covid19Ireland 2399 cases tonight, 167% last Tues but partially because the swab backlog caught up today rather than tomorrow. Swabs are still 131% same days last week though so still unsustainable /1 2399 cases is 167% last Tues 13144 cases this week is 127% previous - both those are the highest figures since January so just as well vaccination is greatly reducing hospitalisations & deaths as otherwise things would be very grim rather than somewhat grim /2

There is an anti-vaxx conspiracy claim that most of ICU being unvaccinated is only because stats are calculated as one lump all the way back to April. In fact a 1/3 or less ICU admissions being vaccinated ratio holds for August & September - I tracked ICU admission numbers /1 Given the massively higher mortality risk for over 70s & 99% plus of the population fully vaccinated it surprised me that only 1/3 of deaths were not fully vaccinated in August - 10% would not have surprised me /2

My hmmm I fear this might be the 5th wave of last week has solidified strongly in last days with todays 2,066 cases being 210% of last Weds & the 11,423 cases this week 143% of previous week. On the cases plot we are visibly rising fast & non longer on Reduced Transmission /1 Post vaccination if it was just cases my concern would be qualified but its clearer from hospital situation - this lags cases so next week will be worse
408 hospital cases is 118% last Weds
341 new hospital cases in week 128% previous
NHC are 4.3% of cases in week to Oct6 /2

Le Sigh - an early update of the NPHETs Exit #Covid19Ireland cases plot confirms what looks like the start of the 5th wave with
1358 cases 152% last Monday
9999 cases this week at 113% previous
With the end of contact tracing in schools we should have seen a missed case drop /1 The potential emerging 5th wave is also clear on the New Hospital Cases Plot - the doubling of case severity in the last 2-3 weeks is an unexplained concern
400 hospital is 120% last Monday
308 new hospital cases this week is 116% last week
NHC were 3.65% cases in previous week/2

A 'how can we have a new wave with 75% of the population vaccinated' thread. Short answer is Delta is a nightmare, way, way nastier than old school Covid19 because one person on average will infect 6 with no measures in place rather than 3. /1 Imagine a 100% effective vaccine that stopped transmission completely. With old school Covid once 2 in 3 are vaccinated then the virus finds 2 of its 3 previously successful jumps to other people blocked. Above 66% vaccination 1000 cases only become 900, 750, 580 etc /2