Russia & Germany - what next?
It’s a perilous moment in the internal & external development of Russia.
Few understand Russia & Germany better than Ernst-Jörg von Studnitz (below with Mikhail Gorbachev).
In a recent article he says Nordstream 2 & old thinking must go. A 🧵/1.
Published originally in German (below) in the Redoute Papers series, Ambassador von Studnitz’s article is presented in English, in this short🧵. Each page accompanied by a one-tweet summary/ commentary by me. It carries sharp messages for German & other western policy-makers. /2.
Drawing on deep historical understanding & over half a century’s experience dealing with Russia, including as German ambassador in Moscow 1995 - 2002, Dr von Studnitz examines the Germany-Russia context facing a new Chancellor in Berlin this September. Old approaches are out. /3.
None of the four approaches used over 100 years helps: Rapallo (post WW1), Ostpolitik (1970s & 80s), Helsinki (1970s onwards), Two Plus Four (1990 onwards). The last of these was a bitter defeat, a catastrophe, in President Putin’s eyes. We must wake up to current realities. /4.
Germany is constitutionally committed to a united & peaceful Europe. That goes beyond the EU. And beyond economic interests. Important though both are. Massive German economic engagement has failed in the policy objective of helping usher in a modern, European Russia. /5.
Democratic forces in Russia have proved too weak. Ambassador von Studnitz sets out how, since the Georgia invasion of 2008, at least, Russia has been in the hands of a revanchist, territorially expansive power elite whose goals are incompatible with European peace & security. /6.
Complaints about NATO’s eastward expansion are intended to deflect blame for European division from Russia to the West. Yet no one can doubt both the right & good reason for central & eastern European countries to join the western alliance. 1956 & 1968 remain in vivid memory. /7.
Germany’s economic interests can’t be allowed to trump politic essentials. Nordstream 2 serves the former & contradicts the latter. It must go. Russia depends on advanced European industry. It has no realistic China alternative. Russia’s future is in Europe. So, what next? /8.
Political robustness, framing social & economic engagement, with patience, perseverance, consistency & western unity are the essentials.
No German “Alleingang” - close alignment with the US & EU partners. No splits.
Many small steps, over many years.
If it isn’t too late. /9.
Final notes.
The original text represents Ambassador von Studnitz’s views. Errors or omissions in the translation or the Twitter 🧵 are mine.
Photo credit: German-Russian Forum.
Paper credit: Redoute Papers, Bonn.
Full disclosure: Dr von Studnitz is my father-in-law. /10. End
Correction to tweet 8: “politic” should read “political”.
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