It’s a perilous moment in the internal & external development of Russia.
Few understand Russia & Germany better than Ernst-Jörg von Studnitz (below with Mikhail Gorbachev).
In a recent article he says Nordstream 2 & old thinking must go. A 🧵/1.
Published originally in German (below) in the Redoute Papers series, Ambassador von Studnitz’s article is presented in English, in this short🧵. Each page accompanied by a one-tweet summary/ commentary by me. It carries sharp messages for German & other western policy-makers. /2.
Drawing on deep historical understanding & over half a century’s experience dealing with Russia, including as German ambassador in Moscow 1995 - 2002, Dr von Studnitz examines the Germany-Russia context facing a new Chancellor in Berlin this September. Old approaches are out. /3.
None of the four approaches used over 100 years helps: Rapallo (post WW1), Ostpolitik (1970s & 80s), Helsinki (1970s onwards), Two Plus Four (1990 onwards). The last of these was a bitter defeat, a catastrophe, in President Putin’s eyes. We must wake up to current realities. /4.
Germany is constitutionally committed to a united & peaceful Europe. That goes beyond the EU. And beyond economic interests. Important though both are. Massive German economic engagement has failed in the policy objective of helping usher in a modern, European Russia. /5.
Democratic forces in Russia have proved too weak. Ambassador von Studnitz sets out how, since the Georgia invasion of 2008, at least, Russia has been in the hands of a revanchist, territorially expansive power elite whose goals are incompatible with European peace & security. /6.
Complaints about NATO’s eastward expansion are intended to deflect blame for European division from Russia to the West. Yet no one can doubt both the right & good reason for central & eastern European countries to join the western alliance. 1956 & 1968 remain in vivid memory. /7.
Germany’s economic interests can’t be allowed to trump politic essentials. Nordstream 2 serves the former & contradicts the latter. It must go. Russia depends on advanced European industry. It has no realistic China alternative. Russia’s future is in Europe. So, what next? /8.
Political robustness, framing social & economic engagement, with patience, perseverance, consistency & western unity are the essentials.
No German “Alleingang” - close alignment with the US & EU partners. No splits.
Many small steps, over many years.
If it isn’t too late. /9.
Final notes.
The original text represents Ambassador von Studnitz’s views. Errors or omissions in the translation or the Twitter 🧵 are mine.
Photo credit: German-Russian Forum.
Paper credit: Redoute Papers, Bonn.
Full disclosure: Dr von Studnitz is my father-in-law. /10. End
Correction to tweet 8: “politic” should read “political”.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
While understanding the surprise (it was unexpected!) at Natalie Elphicke’s defection, I’m bemused by the shock, in some quarters, that Keir Starmer welcomed her.
No, not because Sir Keir is a “Red Tory” or a “short-term opportunist”.
His grand strategy explains it.
A 🧵/1.
Starmer’s Labour is on a mission, even if some in the party don’t yet realise, to make Labour *the* party of Britain, embedding it in government for decades.
Creating a national consensus, drawing in the widest feasible span of committed supporters. /2.
The purpose is to transform the country (more on that in a moment).
“Doing an Attlee”.
But succeeding.
(Before you raise both eyebrows, consider this: what might Attlee & his colleagues have achieved if Labour had been in power a lot longer?). /3.
Today is Holocaust Remembrance Day, date of the Warsaw Ghetto uprising.
27 January, the liberation of Auschwitz, is UN Holocaust Remembrance Day.
We remember systematic, industrial, genocidal murder.
In 2022 I shared a letter from Peter.
I’d like to do so again.
A🧵/1.
Mauthausen, 13 May 1945
Dear Fritz, Dear Barbara!
After an infinitely long time I am allowed to write to you, the still existing branch of the family – or so I hope – and to tell you the events of the last 3 years. /2.
Oma is dead. She passed away peacefully and quietly in her sleep. She had been locked up in the “Home for the Aged” of the Jewish Community in Darmstadt. Mutti was put into jail. From there whilst in transit to a concentration camp she died, of kidney trouble they said! /3.
The other day I took part in a seminar organised by perhaps the world’s most famous human rights organisation.
The subject was UN efforts to end mass atrocities & the need to prevent countries blocking the UN doing so.
Something unexpected happened.
A 🧵/1.
Much of the session focused on the use of international law, & on the role of the UN Security Council, particularly its veto-wielding five permanent members, China, France, Russia, the UK & the USA. /2.
So much was perhaps predictable &, although reasonably well-informed & coming from a humane & decent place, somewhat frustrating. We all know that nothing major is likely to change on the UNSC front for years to come, if then. /3.
The human suffering of 7 October & since renders any but sociopaths deeply distressed. We're all covered in blood. Perhaps you're now angry with me for "moral relativism" or another modern deadly sin. Reading on may not help. But I hope you will.
A long🧵/1.
The most obvious reason for distress is the carnage. Then feelings of impotence & rage. Then, for the more honestly reflective, a recognition of complicity & guilt.
There is no "clean" way out. Nor has there ever been.
Don't be angry. Be determined. And realistic. /2.
Let's start with our complicity.
To recognise that, it's unnecessary to rehearse the history of the Balfour Declaration, the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the League of Nations (British) Mandate, the Holocaust, the multifaceted role of the UN & its major powers, & so on. /3.
The kinds of ultimate resolution under discussion require a few things.
I’ll start with acceptance by all of Israel’s right to exist within internationally recognised borders. (Presumably those would be, or would be no less than, the pre-1967 “six day war” borders). /2.
Perhaps there would be some negotiation about security zones beyond those, but I won’t assume that right now.
It would also require Palestinians giving up all claims on territory within Israel’s recognised borders. /3.