Thread by @GuledWiliq

#Thread Qatar Geopolitical Tango in HoA 1/n
Qatar initial stop at Somaliland was seen as pivoting from Somalia, but I think it’s beyond pivoting:
Qatar's goal is to restore its image as a peacemaker since it was accused of undermining Somalia's instability through Fahad Yasin.

It's possible that Qatar would request @musebihi to allow them to mediate Somaliland & Somalia talks and promise that @M_Farmaajo will not return, this will lift the Farmaajo economic embargo against Somaliland. One would ask how that is going to happen? 2/n

The Qatari delegate met with some of the opposition leaders in Mogadishu declaring that they already cut ties with Fahad and won't fund the Farmaajo election. In addition, Qatar promised to open a diplomatic mission in Hargeysa and bring Qatar Airways
3/n

Qatar is eyeing on “Hawiye Oil blocks” aka Galmudug oil blocks & oil blocks in the maritime disputed zone as Qatar acquired oil blocks adjacent to this zone: likely intention is to get d first drilling right regardless of the outcome of the maritime case b/w Kenya & Somalia. 4/n

Qatar is grooming the next Somalia president from this Galmaudug, so far candidates are, @HassanAKhaire @AHGuled @DahirMGelle both Dahir & Abdikarin are accused of being Islamist and Farmaajo apologist, Guled's wife is Somali Amb to Pakistan, while Geele worked for Farmaajo. 5/n

Geele was the Saudi favored candidate for the PM role when Farmaajo won the election in 2017, but Farmaajo allies sabotaged the deal and Khaire became the default PM. Now Qatar has restored relation with Saudi, but he is said to be their 2/3rd option 6/n

Qatar's 1st/2nd option is Khaire/ Abdikarin, Khaire still connected to Som Oil and Galmdug oil blocks and has lots of cash, but Qatar has keen interests in Abidikarin Guled. Interestingly, the Qatar Amb. to Pakistan met with his wife who is also the Somali Amb to Pakistan. 7/n

Guled and wife are alleged to have mismanaged $40M from an Iraqi contractor over the Hobyo Port deal when she was Somali ambassador to Iraq while her husband Abdikarin Guled at the time was Galmudug president. 8/n
idalenews.com/galmudug-signs…

For Qatar to be seen as a non-terrorist sponsor state in Somalia, it should replace immediately its current Amb to Somalia, Hassan bin Hamza Hashem whose caught on tape discussing " the bombing and killing in Puntland" and stop interfering in the Somalia election 9/n

Time will tell if Qatar continues to sponsor terrorism in Somalia in post-Framaajo or pivot from terrorism and follow the UAE model in HoA who has invested billions to connect HoA trade hubs to the Gulf regions and EU. The end.