Monday vaccine update: 50m passed!
We've now passed 50m total jabs, although today's total (excl Wales) of 255k is another disappointment, down a quarter on last week.
The 7D total continues to fall, to 3.4m.
As yesterday, the shortfall is all in the second doses.
1/5
171k for 2nd doses is down a third, and we are now barely ahead of my 11 week line. The 7D total of 2.6m is the lowest for a fortnight.
What's the prognosis for the next couple of weeks though?
2/5
The yellow line of 1st doses in Feb is now starting to fall, and will drop gradually from c3.1m pw to 1.9m over the next 4 weeks. That should mean it's a bit easier to keep up with the 2nd dose requirement, and hopefully give a bit more leeway for 1st doses too.
3/5
We also know in mid Apr the govt upped the estimate for production until mid May from 3.2m to 3.7m, (similar to the levels we were seeing until a few days) ago. So more encouragement that we can keep up with 2nd doses and gradually increase 1st doses.
4/5
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Finally, one factor not yet taken into consideration is the prop'n of those not taking up the 2nd dose. That is around 8% to 10% in the oldest age groups (eg Wales shown). That also gives more scope to press on with 1st doses, although much better that we get that to 100%.
5/5
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