John Roberts Profile picture
Actuary for far too many years. Welsh, but now live in the spiritual home of the Wurzels out west. Don’t think I’ve got the accent yet. Like zider though...
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Jul 26 9 tweets 4 min read
A (now occasional) update on England hospital stats, shows that the downward trajectory continues apace. Today's admissions figure was no less than 23% down on last week.

Just a couple of regional vent bed increases spoil a full house of falls, but absolute no's are low.

1/ Image At 1,504, the daily average over the last 7 days is around 20% down on the peak earlier this month.

Let's hope this rate of fall continues - today's figure suggests there's every hope it might.

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Jul 11 4 tweets 2 min read
Admissions and beds are still rising, but the latest three days are now showing signs of slowing growth as the Monday update from @COVID19Actuary shows.

1/ Looking at admissions over the three Omicron waves, we can see we're currently a further 15% growth away from the BA.2 peak, slightly less for the BA.1 peak.

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Jul 7 6 tweets 3 min read
Thu 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿hospital stats including primary diagnosis weekly update.
Admissions growth continues at a very steady rate of about one third each week, with similar growth in beds occupied. Vent bed growth is much slower however.

Today's adm'ns total is 1,926, up 32% on last week.

1/ The average daily admissions is now 1,643, and at the current growth rate we are now just 6 days away from the BA.2 peak in early April of 2,108.

That will be third such peak in just 6 months - much faster than previous waves.

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Jul 5 5 tweets 2 min read
Latest deaths data from ONS shows that registered COVID related deaths are starting to follow the increase in 28 day deaths upwards, albeit it's the very first signs at this stage.

Note these levels remain very low at the moment in comparison with previous waves.

1/ At such low levels the ratio between the two measures is more volatile, but is running at between 60% and 65% - much lower than in the pre-Omicron era when the 28 day figure was a good proxy for the overall COVID related deaths.

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Jul 4 6 tweets 3 min read
The usual 3 day drop of hospital data sees admissions up 30% on a week ago, so the weekly growth remains at around one third.

Note the big increase in the SW now, at around two thirds, ie double the national average.

Beds occupied are now back over 10,000.

1/ The weekly growth rate is now back in the low 30% range, as seen here, after its brief foray up above 40% around a week ago.

That suggests doubling every 17-18 days.

2/
Jun 23 6 tweets 2 min read
A combined hospital stats and primary diagnosis update today, starting with a further leap in admissions.

Today's 1,155 is up 51% on last week😲, and takes the 7 day average up to 920 (40% up on the week), already more than double the recent low (439) seen on June 3rd.

1/ Image After a recent pause for breath that rate of growth has started to accelerate again, and has now hit 40%.

That rate represents doubling around every 15 days.

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Jun 21 4 tweets 2 min read
Another big increase in admissions today, the 942 is up 43% on last week, and keeps the weekly increase running at around one third.

Beds occupied have just tipped over 6,000 too, having been at a low of 3,800 at the month start.

1/ Image You can see how the weekly growth in the 7 day average of admissions is staying stubbornly at or slightly above 30%.

That would represent a doubling of around every 19 days, if it continues at that rate.

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Jun 21 5 tweets 3 min read
My occasional comparison of "28 day" and ONS registered COVID deaths suggests that the latter is now running at around 60% of the former.

Put another way, the 28 day measure currently inflates the true picture by around 66% (=100/60).

1/ Image The latest two weeks of ONS data have seen the lowest % of deaths with COVID on the certificate where it was put as the underlying cause, at 58%.

2/ Image
Jun 18 9 tweets 4 min read
A weekend update of some key stats, starting with the ONS Infection Survey.

There are steep increases in all 4 countries:-

E:⏫42% to 2.1%
W:⏫60% to 2.1%
NI:⏫55% to 2.3%
S:⏫42% to 3.4%

1/ This isn't a Jubilee effect. In 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 rates bottomed out around the May 25 and have been on a steady climb since.

Note 2.1% is the average for the week. The latest modelled point, for last Saturday, is already up to 2.4%. At that rate of growth we would already be over 3%.

2/
Jun 16 4 tweets 2 min read
Another heavy admissions day today, 763, up 32% on last week, taking the 7 day ave up to 658. That's up 50% since the low point on June 3rd, just 11 days ago.

Beds occupied are now rising rapidly too, up nearly a quarter on the week, but vent beds continue to remain stable.
1/ Image Yesterday I speculated that we might possibly be reaching a peak in the admissions growth rate, but we needed a few more days evidence. Sure enough, today it's nudged back up to 33%, though at least it hasn't yet gone beyond that, so that gradient may be becoming less steep.

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Jun 16 4 tweets 2 min read
Latest primary diagnosis (PD) data in England acute hospitals show that beds occupied where COVID is regarded as the PD have risen by 19% in the last week to 1641, and are up 40% from the low on June 1st.

Numbers are still well below the BA.1/2 waves at the moment though.

1/ Image June 1st also saw a low in the proportion of COVID beds where it was the PD at 32%, since when it has risen to stand at 37%. Again this remains much lower than we saw prior to Omicron taking hold when it was over 70%.

2/ Image
Jun 7 5 tweets 2 min read
Today's admissions figure for England is 24% higher than a week ago, which takes the 7 day average change over a week firmly into growth territory.

The next chart shows how quickly we've moved from decline to growth.

1/ Anything above the black line represents growth, and within the space of a week we've gone from -15% to +4%, a rate of change reasonably similar to the BA.2 transition in early March.

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Jun 2 10 tweets 4 min read
Catching up after a week away, and I thought a summary update 🧵of some data might be helpful, starting with yesterday's early ONS infection survey.

Maybe surprisingly given new variants, we saw continued falls in E(-10%) ,W(-25%) and S(-22%), with NI broadly flat.

1/ Image These sustained falls continue to be reflected in NHS stats, with overall admissions (7 day average) down 14%, although regionally London isn't looking quite so good.

Some of the regional vent bed figures are now in single figures, so will inevitably be volatile.

2/ Image
May 24 4 tweets 2 min read
The latest deaths data from ONS shows that registrations with COVID mentioned are now running at around 60% of the "28 day" measure, a level that has declined slowly since April following earlier sharp falls as Omicron took hold.

1/ Of those where COVID is mentioned on the death cert, in recent weeks around 64% have put it as the underlying cause. This has been relatively stable in recent weeks.

2/
May 20 4 tweets 2 min read
The end of the week update on England NHS figures shows continued good progress in bringing admissions and beds down, although the situation is now less clear for vent beds (though admittedly numbers are now relatively low).

1/ Today's admissions figure was only 7% down on last Friday's though, so there's a slight reduction in the rate of decline of the weekly average to 16%, after a steady week on 17-18%.

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May 20 5 tweets 2 min read
Latest ONS infection data shows levels are still falling, but at a noticeably slower rate than in previous weeks (with the honourable exception of Scotland):-

E: 1.90% (-14%)
W: 2.66% (-9%)
NI: 1.62% (-12%)
S: 2.32% (-23%)

1/ Whilst much lower than recent weeks (and indeed throughout the Omicron period), 1.9% is still historically quite a high level, as we can see here.

2/
May 19 5 tweets 2 min read
Another big fall (25%) this week in the number of COVID beds occupied in acute England hospitals where it is regarded as the primary diagnosis.

It's now down to 2,011, compared with the BA.2 peak of 6,558 on Apr 4th - that's around 30%.

1/ The proportion of COVID beds where it is regarded as the primary diagnosis continues to drift slowly downwards, from a pre-Omicron peak of around 75%, to now stand at 36%.

2/
May 13 4 tweets 2 min read
A bit late with my weekly ONS infection update, but we continue to see healthy falls in all four countries in prevalence.

Indeed, E,W & NI have halved in a fortnight!

E: 2.2% (-24%)
W: 2.9% (-33%)
NI:1.8% (-25%)
S: 3.0% (-15%)

1/ Image By age we're in the unusual position whereby the highest prevalence is currently at the oldest ages - maybe another reason to extend second boosters below age 70?

Signs of levelling off at school ages too, at around 1% prevalence.

2/ Image
May 12 5 tweets 2 min read
The weekly update on COVID beds occupied in acute hospitals where it is considered the primary diagnosis continues to fall rapidly - down a quarter in a week to stand at 2,682, 60% down on the BA.2 peak in early April.

1/ The proportion of COVID beds occupied in acute hospitals where it is regarded as the primary diagnosis continues to drift lower very slowly, and is now around 38%.

What about the others?

2/
May 10 5 tweets 2 min read
The last week of the Easter disturbance to weekly deaths sees a big catch up. Over the last 5 weeks deaths are 3% higher than 15-19, which is a better representation of recent mortality.

Even better will be the age-standardised view from the CMI, due later today.

1/ A reminder to anyone comparing ONS COVID deaths with the "28 day" measure by date of death that the former takes some time to fully develop.

As an example, last week there were 511 reported in the w/e 22nd April - that's now risen to 782.

2/
May 9 4 tweets 2 min read
The usual Monday bumper 3 day update of NHS hospital data shows that all the COVID figures are still heading rapidly in the right direction, both nationally and regionally.

1/ Image A nice simple chart here that shows how the average admissions rate has now fallen below the mid-Omicron "lull" (relatively speaking), and is now around the levels we saw before Omicron took hold.

2/ Image