Rather unknown until now: there are actually three Indian variants: B.1.617.(1/2/3)
.1 has been around for a while and is the one officially designated as VUI by @PHE_uk
.2 seems to be younger and spreading faster, especially internationally
B.1.617.2 <- world -> B.1.617.1 🧵👇
.1 contains the E484Q mutation, .2 doesn't
Which may be why .1 seemed to cause more concern.
Looking at the recent growth internationally I wonder whether .2 might not be the one to worry.
Especially because it hasn't been around for long.
B.1.617.2 <- UK -> B.1.617.1
The scales are always much shorter for .2 than for .1
So even thought .1 has the E484Q mutation, .2 may for some reason be the one that's more transmissible.
The @PHE_uk reports are interesting reading for those who want to understand this variant in depth
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Interestingly, already before India was put on the red travel list in the UK, meaning hotel quarantine, on the 23rd of April, there was 10 day quarantine with PCR testing in the UK on day 2 and 8 after arrival.
Apparently not enough to stop it from escaping to the community.
With all focus on India, it may be worth considering other countries that may already have significant proportions of B.1.617.1/2
In Singapore, B.1.617.2 is dominant. However, the incidence is extremely low, at around 3 per 100k per 7d, so in absolute terms same as UK.
More concerningly: Bahrain has around 20% or more B.1.617 and sky high incidence of around 500.
Presumably, there are many migrant workers from India in Bahrain.
All countries should immediately put Bahrain on maximum quarantine
High Incidence x High B.1.617 = Highest Concern
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