Thread by @jcpunongbayan

OH MY. THIS IS BAD.

The median forecast by private analysts was -2.6%.
bworldonline.com/q1-2021-gdp-gr…

"It is the fifth consecutive quarter that the country has registered negative GDP growth due to the pandemic, making it the longest recession since the Marcos years."
rappler.com/business/gross…

Oh my. Industry shrank more than services. That's quite telling.

Agriculture was pummeled in Q1! But we already had a glimpse of that in the agri report yesterday.

"Livestock production contracted by 23.2%. Hog, which is the major contributor for livestock, dropped by 25.8%."
rappler.com/business/phili…

Per-capita GDP and GNI shrank by 5.5% and 12.1% resp. Base effects din siguro; Q1 last year wasn't as bad as Q2.

Nice that PSA already includes this in their regular briefings: sectors weighted by their respective shares to total output.

Although industry shrank more than services in terms of growth rates, services pulled down the economy more because of its sheer size.

Construction shrank by a sizable 24.2%. Even more than accommodation/food services.

Build, Build, Build pa more!!! 🤦‍♂️

Construction pulled down growth the most, if you account for the subsectors' shares to total output.

Kala ko ba sabi ni Sec Dominguez Build, Build, Build will be the "main driver of rebuilding the domestic economy"??? 🤡

The failure of construction to save the PH economy is also evident in the spending side of GDP.

Sec Chua: "Our aversion to risk...has placed the country in a long period of quarantine. This came at a huge cost to the economy and the people."

More like, "The government's utterly botched pandemic response came at a huge cost to the economy and the people."

"The economy improved in the first quarter of 2021..."

It's a matter of reference points. Compared to last year we're definitely worse off. Compared to the previous quarter there's been a slight improvement. But most analysts forecasted a smaller contraction than 4.2%!

Is Build, Build, Build actually working?

"On the expenditure side, growth was driven by government consumption... Public construction also significantly improved by 26.2% in Q1 2021 after 2 consecutive quarterly contractions..."

But growth rates alone may be misleading.

Despite a seemingly impressive 26.2% growth of gov't construction spending, here's what it really looks like (focus on the blue trend).

Clearly there's still no significant uptrend in construction spending proportional to the hype built around Build, Build, Build.

Chua: Although the recent ECQ, MECQ "will pose downside risks to growth, our actions in the next 8 months can reverse these initial losses."

Parang suntok sa buwan na po ang 6.5% this year. Unless our economy grows by 10.067% in the next 3 quarters.

Chua: "The latest economic performance shows the limits of economic recovery without any major relaxation of our quarantine policy."

Nah. It should be: "The latest econ performance shows the limits of economic recovery without the elimination (or near elimination) of COVID-19."

They wanna relax restrictions "once the present spike is over."

GAH. There's no economy-health trade-off! Eliminate (or at least significantly bring down) new COVID-19 cases before anything else!

Related piece I wrote:
rappler.com/voices/thought…

Katumbas daw ng 15.4% ng GDP ang laki ng gov't response sa pandemic last year. But notice that Pillar III (monetary actions) account for most of it: 7.8 percentage points.

Translation: BSP ang nagbuhat sa response ng goberyno. But we need a much greater FISCAL response!

Yung laws comprising the government's "recovery package" ay mostly pro-rich (like Create, Fist, Guide). LOL.

I wrote about this last week.
rappler.com/voices/thought…

Ang pinanawagan ni Sec Chua sa Congress, yung passage ng Guide bill (for "strategically important companies") while not saying anything about Bayanihan 3 (a proper econ relief package).

Away with trickle-down economics! 😤
rappler.com/voices/thought…

Okay so this is just pure mental gymnastics. Our economy now is "on the mend" partly because of "the country's strong position before the pandemic."

That's like saying Juan is on the mend because he was very healthy before he got hit by a truck. Stop living in the past!

"Managing risks and safely reopening the economy are the most effective ways to address hunger and poverty brought about by the pandemic."

No. Eliminating (or nearly eliminating) COVID-19 is.

Chua: "But without a more calibrated approach to opening we would just be throwing money to sectors where in fact there is no demand because consumer demand and the economy is not fully open."

But we want to give them ayuda PRECISELY because of low demand. Gahd. 🤦‍♂️

Chua: "We support the wage subsidy. In fact the economic team was the first to propose a wage subsidy last year...

Pero ayaw suportahan ang Bayanihan 3. 🤷‍♂️

Chua: "We cannot proceed in proposing large [wage] subsidies if we cannot be responsible enough to prudently find the funding source."

Wrong. Money isn't the real problem here. Your unwillingness to give aid is.
rappler.com/voices/thought…

NS Mapa: The longest recession on record occurred during martial law, when we saw 9 consecutive quarters of negative growth.

This is correct. #NeverForget

4 quarters na lang ng negative growth, mapapantayan na ito ni Duts!

Looking at the ASEAN data so far, notice that Vietnam grew by a remarkable +4.5% in Q1. 👏

The PH could be doing a lot better. But at the very least, one might say that our year-on-year contraction is becoming smaller and smaller over time.

Re Bayanihan 3, Chua said, "I suppose we should prioritize first the budgets that are already being implemented... Second, the 2021 budget was designed to address these problems."

NO. IT. WAS. NOT. @znsuzara oh.
rappler.com/voices/thought…