Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Professor of demography at UCT; cricket; politics. Analyst of South African Covid testing data and excess deaths (2020-)

May 12, 2021, 6 tweets

New weekly @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths out. 158 500 excess natural deaths from 3May20 to 8May21.

samrc.ac.za/reports/report…

Relative to expected, mortality remains particularly high in NC and FS (both > 50% higher than expected).

Last week marked 1 year since we first identified excess deaths at a national level in the data. On an age-standardised basis, South Africa ranks in the top five countries for which excess deaths are
measured.

Over that 12 months (3May20-1May21), approximately 37% more natural deaths than expected were recorded.

Unnatural deaths continue to follow the expected trend

On the testing side, proportions testing positive 2-8May continue to increase in almost every province (exceptions being EC and KZN). Time to start exercising caution. Take care.

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