Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Professor of demography at UCT; cricket; politics. Analyst of South African Covid testing data and excess deaths (2020-)
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May 25 8 tweets 6 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess mortality in South Africa released, covering the week to 21 May 2022. 314 900 excess natural deaths since 3May20, with 1724 in the most recent week (cg 1622 the previous week). Report available here:samrc.ac.za/reports/report… ImageImage Nationally, natural deaths were 20.% above expected, tranging from 11.0% in KZN to 30.1% in Gauteng. Reported deaths - and their reporting!- however, seem to have stalled (no deaths reported in MP since 9Mar22; none in LM since 5May22). ImageImage
May 18 13 tweets 7 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa released, covering the week to 14May22. 1737 excess natural deaths in the week (up from 1513 in the previous week). A total of 313000 excess natural deaths since 3May20. Report here:samrc.ac.za/reports/report… Excess deaths *slowly* increasing above the baseline, with deaths among people aged 60+ above the upper prediction interval, while those among people aged under 60 are nearing the upper prediction interval.
May 11 7 tweets 6 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa released, covering the period to the week ending 7May22. Report available at: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
311k excess natural deaths since 3May20, 1500 in the most recent week (1300 last week) ImageImage In the week to 7May22, the national natural deaths p-score was 18%; ranging from 4.2% in the WC to 36.9% in the EC.
There has been a small, sustained, increase in excess natural deaths in the last few weeks. ImageImage
May 4 7 tweets 5 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa, through to 30 April 2022 released. 309 000 excess deaths since May 2020, 1 400 in the week to 30Apr22. Report here: samrc.ac.za/sites/default/… The public holidays on 27Apr and 2May make the reporting of estimation of excess deaths in the week to 30Apr22 somewhat more imprecise. On top of that, system problems in the Eastern Cape since mid-April might account for the somewhat odd pattern observed there.
Apr 28 7 tweets 5 min read
A day delayed due to the public holiday yesterday. The latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa, covering excess deaths through 23 April 2022 has been released. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…. 307 700 excess natural deaths since May2020, 1265 in the most recent week, the highest since the end of January 2022. National p-score for the week was 15.9%, ranging from 5.8% in the Eastern Cape to 26.3% in the Northern Cape.
Apr 20 6 tweets 4 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa. Caution in interpreting the results this week due to 2 public holidays, and floods which may have compromised registration of deaths.
306 000 excess natural deaths since May2020. 979 in the most recent week. The report is available here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…. Excess natural mortality in the week was 12.5%.
Apr 6 11 tweets 6 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess mortality in South Africa released, covering the week to 2Apr22. 721 excess natural deaths in the week, bringing the total to almost 304 000 since 3May20. Full report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…. Natural deaths among those <60 remain within the prediction interval; those >60 slightly above the prediction interval. Nationally, the excess natural mortality p-score was 9.2% (last week 10.4%).
Mar 30 6 tweets 5 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa released. 303 000 excess natural deaths since May 2020. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report… Excess natural deaths under the age of 60 remain within the prediction interval. Deaths above 60 remain close to the upper limit of the prediction interval. Nationally, natural mortality in the week was 14% above expected; ranging from 3.3% in Mpumalanga to 23% in Northern Cape.
Mar 24 7 tweets 5 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa released. 303 000 excess natural deaths since May2020, 871 in the week to 19Mar22. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report… Weekly p-score is 11.3%, a level unchanged for the last three weeks. p-scores fell in most provinces. The increase in the FS should not be over-interpreted, as the public holiday on 21Mar would have affected registrations of deaths in the week to 19Mar
Mar 2 6 tweets 5 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa released. 299 980 excess natural deaths since 3May20; a rate of 504/100 000 population. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report… ImageImage Natural excess deaths in the week to 26Feb22, were 898. The p-score for the week was 11.9% (up marginally from 9.8% the previous week). The province with the highest p-score is Free State (27.1%, up from 20.1%); the lowest is WC (-0.4%, down from 6.2%). ImageImage
Feb 23 12 tweets 7 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa released, covering the week to 19Feb22. We are closing in on 300k excess natural deaths since 3May20 (total 299 200). 1076 excess deaths in the week. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report… Natural deaths in the week were 14% above expected; ranging from 1.6% in NW to 26.1% in FS.
Feb 16 8 tweets 4 min read
Continuing the thread (first part here ).
Deaths are generally below the upper bound of our prediction intervals.

Unnatural deaths continue to follow the expected pattern very closely By age, excess mortality was lower in every age group other than ages 5-19. Among those 60%, mortality was 13.7% higher than expected.
Feb 16 4 tweets 3 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa. 297 000 excess natural deaths from 3May20 to 12Feb22. 681 excess natural deaths in the week to 12Feb22. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report… Natural deaths in the week were 8.7% higher than expected, the lowest p-score since 27 September 2020. Provincial p-scores ranged from slightly less than 0 (MP) to 19% (Northern Cape).
Feb 9 10 tweets 6 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa released. 296k excess natural deaths between 3May20 and 5Feb22, an increase of 1090 from the previous week. Report available here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report… By province (and by age), excess (natural) death p-scores for the week show that this 4th (omicron) wave is almost over. Nationally 14.1%, ranging between -0.5% in NW and 21.2% in EC. The (natural) death p-score for those 60+ is 22% higher than expected.
Feb 2 9 tweets 5 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa released, covering the period to 29Jan22. Almost 295 000 excess natural deaths since 3May20, with 886 excess natural deaths in the week 23-29Jan22, the lowest since end Oct21. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report… The excess (natural) mortality p-score for the week was 11.7%, and below 20% in every province other than the Western Cape (24%). Official reports of Covid death in this wave are rather worse than previous waves, even as some provinces (Mpumalanga) attempt to backfill deaths.
Jan 26 4 tweets 1 min read
Sorry. tech glitches meant I lost a part of the original thread, and had to reconstruct it. Some information on the age profile of excess deaths, which show that the p-score continues to decrease among the oldest, most vulnerable age groups Among those 60 and over, p-scores continue to decrease: down to 35% this week, down from a high of 64% in week 53 of 2021 (ending 1Jan22).
Jan 26 12 tweets 7 min read
It's Wednesday, and so the latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa has been released. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
294 000 excess natural deaths since 3May20, 1726 in the week to 22Jan20. The fourth 'omicron' wave is passing. Excess natural deaths in the week to 22Jan20 were 'only' 22% higher than expected, down from 27% in the previous week. p-score highest in the Eastern Cape (38%), Western Cape (30%) and KZN (27%).
Jan 19 13 tweets 7 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess mortality in South Africa released, covering the period to 15Jan22. 292 700 excess natural deaths since 3May20, an increment of 2700 in the week to 15Jan22. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report… While not all excess natural deaths are attributable to Covid, it's worth recording that - since 3May20 - excess natural deaths are nearing in on 5 000 per million population.
Jan 12 11 tweets 7 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess mortality in South Africa, through 8Jan22, released.
290 000 excess deaths since 3May20. 3 150 in the most recent week (down from 3 300 the previous week). Report available here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report… Nationally, excess natural mortality declined slightly in the most recent week: from 39.9% above expected to 37% above expected. Declines in every province other than Western Cape (up from 31 to 49% above expected) and Mpumalanga. Gauteng down to 7% above expected.
Jan 5 27 tweets 10 min read
Right. Back from leave and with a lot to report on wrt South African testing and death data! Apologies in advance for the length of the thread. BLUF: things generally looking positive. 2/ After a week’s hiatus the latest @mrcZA and @UCT_news weekly report on excess deaths in South Africa has been released. The report covers excess deaths in South Africa through 01Jan22, and is available here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report….
Dec 29, 2021 6 tweets 3 min read
As flagged last week there is NO excess deaths report released this week. There were not many days in which deaths in the week to 25/12 could have been reported. Deaths in the week to 25/12 should have been reported this week, and will be included in the report next week. On the testing side, proportions testing positive fell in many provinces.. But a data problem in NW last week, which saw duplicate negative results being loaded, means that that province's decline is exaggerated, as is (to a limited extent) the national figure.