Alright: today's the day.
I'm going to use the #CanSIPS to try and figure out some of the puzzle pieces of the #HurricaneSeason, which starts in 14 days.
First thing to notice: NO El Nino. The equatorial Pacific is coolish, & the Atlantic is warm.
El Nino suppresses hurricanes.🧵
Next: there's lots of rising motion over the Indian Ocean (green colour) and sinking motion over the Eastern Pacific (red colour).
That leads to more robust tropical waves coming off Africa, which have a higher chance of developing into tropical cyclones.
So this forecasts suggests a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic.
We have low pressure in the Atlantic, that favours tropical wave development into TC's.
The Bermuda High is weak, so a lot of storms will likely recurve.
But, if said storms make it to the western Atlantic...
...they will run into a strong ridge of high pressure near Atlantic Canada.
This will make it harder for them to recurve harmlessly out to sea, and makes a landfall in Eastern North America more likely.
The precip forecast can give us a few ideas of where the storms might go.
Less Gulf of Mexico than last year is likely.
Lots of recurves also look likely.
I don't like those high precip anomalies over the southeast US and the Canadian Maritimes though...
The #NMME precip forecast (from @BenNollWeather) hits on many of the points that I made in this thread.
Lots of recurves, but there is a significant chance of tropical impacts along the entire Eastern Coast of North America.
End of thread.
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