#VaccineStats All You Need To Know
Current domestic vaccine production capacity estimated at 8.5 crore doses.
To rise to 16.7 crore in July with the addition of Sputnik V supply.
As per the centre’s affidavit filed with SC.
Read more at: bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
States were asked to procure vaccines only starting May 1.
To vaccinate 18 to 44-year-olds.
Total domestic production in May-July
33.7 crore doses
Centre order: 17.68 crore
States orders: 16 crore
- to get 2 crore in May
Read more: bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
Assume states & pvt hospitals get rest 14 cr doses by mid-Aug.
So far 40 lakh people in 18-44 group have got 1 dose
Target pop: 60 cr
Doses needed: 120 cr
May - mid-Aug: 16 cr
*Imports extra
Dr. Reddy's Sputnik: 25 cr doses. Supply timeline unclear
bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
The 44+, HCW, FLW group is in a better place.
Target pop: 30 cr people
Doses needed: 60 cr
Vaccination for them started in Jan.
Jan - Apr the centre has been the only procurer in India.
Here's how the centre's order data stacks up.
bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
So, for 45+, HCW, FLW group
Eligible Population: Approx. 30 cr people Both Doses Received: 4.05
1 or 2 doses left: 25.94 cr
Read more at: bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
In short...
Based on domestic production estimates as centre does not intend to import.
By late August — there will still be 7.87 crore people in this cohort of 30 crore that may not have received a single dose.
bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
This is all based on central government data via ministry decks and affidavit.
It is contingent on domestic capacity expansion at SII and BB as estimated.
It does not factor in imports for the 18-44 group cause
- tough to estimate
- global vaccine shortage
Health ministry claims vaccine supply will rise substantially in Aug - Dec due to new/expanded capacities.
Their estimate
Aug - Dec: 200 crore doses
*Imports extra
Looks very optimistic.
Hope it happens.
In summary...
18-44
Total pop: 60 cr people
By mid-Aug: 16 cr people may get one dose
*Imports will raise that number
Read 👇 bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
45+
Total pop: 30 cr people
By mid-Aug: 22 cr people may have got atleast one dose
Read 👇
bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
PS: Few known risks at play here.
Capacity expansion works to plan (std project risks)
Production works to plan (raw materials etc)
Distribution happens efficiently (last mile etc)
These are only estimates.
And yes, some would say these are probably best case estimates.
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