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menaka doshi Profile picture
@menakadoshi
May 16, 2021 • 10 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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#VaccineStats All You Need To Know

Current domestic vaccine production capacity estimated at 8.5 crore doses.

To rise to 16.7 crore in July with the addition of Sputnik V supply.

As per the centre’s affidavit filed with SC.

Read more at: bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
States were asked to procure vaccines only starting May 1.

To vaccinate 18 to 44-year-olds.

Total domestic production in May-July
33.7 crore doses

Centre order: 17.68 crore

States orders: 16 crore
- to get 2 crore in May

Read more: bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
Assume states & pvt hospitals get rest 14 cr doses by mid-Aug.

So far 40 lakh people in 18-44 group have got 1 dose

Target pop: 60 cr

Doses needed: 120 cr
May - mid-Aug: 16 cr

*Imports extra
Dr. Reddy's Sputnik: 25 cr doses. Supply timeline unclear

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
The 44+, HCW, FLW group is in a better place.

Target pop: 30 cr people
Doses needed: 60 cr

Vaccination for them started in Jan.

Jan - Apr the centre has been the only procurer in India.

Here's how the centre's order data stacks up.

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
So, for 45+, HCW, FLW group

Eligible Population: Approx. 30 cr people Both Doses Received: 4.05
1 or 2 doses left: 25.94 cr

Read more at: bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
In short...

Based on domestic production estimates as centre does not intend to import.

By late August — there will still be 7.87 crore people in this cohort of 30 crore that may not have received a single dose.

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
This is all based on central government data via ministry decks and affidavit.

It is contingent on domestic capacity expansion at SII and BB as estimated.

It does not factor in imports for the 18-44 group cause

- tough to estimate
- global vaccine shortage
Health ministry claims vaccine supply will rise substantially in Aug - Dec due to new/expanded capacities.

Their estimate
Aug - Dec: 200 crore doses

*Imports extra

Looks very optimistic.
Hope it happens.
In summary...

18-44
Total pop: 60 cr people
By mid-Aug: 16 cr people may get one dose

*Imports will raise that number

Read 👇 bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…

45+
Total pop: 30 cr people
By mid-Aug: 22 cr people may have got atleast one dose

Read 👇
bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
PS: Few known risks at play here.

Capacity expansion works to plan (std project risks)

Production works to plan (raw materials etc)

Distribution happens efficiently (last mile etc)

These are only estimates.

And yes, some would say these are probably best case estimates.

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More from @menakadoshi

menaka doshi Profile picture
Jan 27, 2023
#AdaniGroup vs #Hindenburg

A short seller attack in a week that Adani Enterprises launched a $2.5 billion additional share sale.

$51 billion in market value wiped out across group stocks.

Here's what happened...

It started with India's biggest FPO.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The night before the anchor book opened, #hindenburgresearch, a U.S. based activist short seller published a report making wide ranging allegations against #Adani.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#AdaniGroup said the allegations were baseless and that it was considering legal action against #Hindenburg

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 9 tweets
menaka doshi Profile picture
Jan 31, 2022
#EconomicSurvey2022 #UnionBudget2022

Changing mix of stimulus measures by government.
#EconomicSurvey2022 #UnionBudget

Direct and indirect tax revenue trends
#EconomicSurvey2022 #UnionBudget

GST average collection improves
Read 27 tweets
menaka doshi Profile picture
Dec 20, 2021
A thread on the CCI order in the #Amazon–#Future case.

Why has CCI fined Amazon Rs 202 crore and put its approval of the deal in abeyance?

▪️ Because, on review, it found Amazon made wrong filings
▪️ Amazon "willfully" omitted to share its actual intent behind the deal.
In my column I argue that

Amazon may have made filing errors/violations & should pay commensurate fine/refile.

But, it is tough to believe that CCI was unaware that Amazon’s deal with Future Coupons was with an eye on Future Retail.

(My column) bloombergquint.com/business/futur…
Rewind to 2019: Amazon buys 49% in Future Coupons (FCPL)

- FCPL was new to coupon biz

- Its key value was as promoter of Future Retail (Big Bazaar, EasyDay etc)

- Via FCPL Amazon got some rights over FRL – namely ROFR, promoter share sale restriction
bloombergquint.com/business/amazo…
Read 9 tweets
menaka doshi Profile picture
May 25, 2021
#SocialMediaban
I'm puzzled by this frenzy over a potential ban of social media platforms on account of non-compliance with latest Rules.

Significant social media intermediaries (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram etc...) had 3 months to comply with the rules. That period ends today.
The rules themselves say nothing about any BAN.

What they say is - if a social media platform doesn't comply with the Rules then it loses protection under Section 79 of the IT Act, 2000.

Please read for yourself 👇
Simply put - Section 79 of the IT Act protects intermediaries from liability for third party information or data.

For instance - if someone fraudulently seeks donations via tweets, Twitter can't be held responsible unless it knowingly allowed the fraud.

Section 79 👇
Read 7 tweets
menaka doshi Profile picture
May 10, 2021
Target population of18-44 year olds is approx 60 crore. Total jabs needed =120 crore.

Today India vaccinated in that category a grand total of
5,18,479 people.

At this rate....
Just to be clear - the point is the slow pace. Not whether we need to vaccinate all or 80% or 50% of the target group.

Pick any % and do the math. You want to vaccinate only 50%. Fine. That's 60 crore jabs.

Still we are doing just over 5 lakh a day.

#SupplySupplySupply
Here's the supply picture for 45+ (vaccines procured by centre)

States have a somewhat higher balance now.
UP and Gujarat leading.
TN and Maharashtra behind them.

Based on this WB and Kerala have exhausted supplies - among the 7 states to receive central supplies soon.
Read 8 tweets
menaka doshi Profile picture
May 3, 2021
26 crore doses = 13 crore people.
Of which 11 crore doses will come over next few months.

Estimated population of 45+ and front line workers etc is 28-30 crore.
So far Bharat Biotech has been small % of supply.
Not for a moment suggesting the producers are to blame.

Just looking at the data.
Read 6 tweets

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