Thread by @tomiahonen

Trump Asylum Thread 1/

Many are mentioning that Trump might be a flight risk. He is

The most popular destination suggested is asylum in Russia. That is highly unlikely

Would defection by Trump get him beyond justice. No, of course not. Let's do the analysis thread on asylum.

Trump Asylum Thread 2/

Asylum is a form of international sanctuary. Go to another country to escape persecution (or prosecution). Ballet dancers like Nureyev, Baryshnikov and Godunov defected from Soviet Union. Wikileaks's Julian Assange seeked refuge in Embassy of Ecuador

Trump Asylum Thread 3/

And a former Dictator who tried to destroy the young democracy in Ukraine and take power, Viktor Yanukovych, was ousted in 2014. He defected to Russia. A Putin pal.

Where did we hear that name? Oh, MANAFORT was assisting Yanukovych rape his nation. Yeah.

Trump Asylum Thread 4/

Because of Trump close relationship with Czar Vladimir the Smug, one would assume Russia is the obvious destination, if Trump decides to flee prosecution in the USA. Trump is a flight risk. But Putin is not eager to take his failed lapdog to Moscow.

Trump Asylum Thread 5/

First, let's see what happens LEGALLY if Trump defects. If there is ongoing criminal investigation, prosecutors will use the defection as clear knowledge of guilt. It makes the trial a slam dunk. Yes. Trump would be tried 'in absentia'. NOT escape justice

Trump Asylum Thread 6/

Probably early as part of investigation, most definitely after first conviction, State Dept will revoke his passport and DOJ/FBI will issue an international warrant for his arrest. Trump becomes international fugitive, stuck in whatever country he was in.

Trump Asylum Thread 7/

Trump will be stuck in that country for the rest of his life, or be arrested at the border of wherever he tries to go. He would need to gamble, that the government of his host country WANTS him there, for life, and will remain in POWER, to Trump's death

Trump Asylum Thread 8/

Trump could never return to USA, he'd be arrested at border, and tossed immediately to PRISON on ALL convictions of his crimes, several that never expire, like taxes.

He would never get out on bail, he would always be an obvious undeniable 'flight risk'

Trump Asylum Thread 9/

Secondly, financially. If Trump were to flee, EVERY criminal investigation would RUSH to convict him. Easy slam-dunk convictions. Note Trump has TAX FRAUD crimes pending in NY, IL, CA, FL and elsewhere. His Assets would be seized. ALL OF THEM

Trump Asylum Thread 10/

Trump buildings & properties in the USA would be seized, then sold at auction. His bank accounts frozen, & seized. Next his INTERNATIONAL assets would be seized, but that takes decades

His NAME would be scraped off those buildings (damages their value)

Trump Asylum Thread 11/

Thirdly Trump political career. If Trump were to flee, Fox would dump him like hot potato. The GOP would dump him like Gaetz dumps prostitutes who turn 18. Trump would PROVE to his base, that he was a fraud, & he ran away. Some would turn, some would stay

Trump Asylum Thread 12/

Trump would of course TRY to proclaim from wherever he was, via social media & TV that he is fleeing because Biden Garland Pelosi Obama Mitch Pence Barr John McCain, windmills & the Easter Bunny are in a witch hunt against him. SOME maganuts might believe

Trump Asylum Thread 13/

But a series of TAX FRAUD criminal cases in a NUMBER of states, all showing Trump ACTUAL tax returns - those notorious ones he was hiding - will illustrate, Trump was a FRAUD. Then Fox & GOP dump Trump. It is their EXCUSE to get rid of him, 'with regret'

Trump Asylum Thread 14/

So if Trump flees the country, there WILL be justice, to some degree. BUT Trump would not physically be in prison (yet). America would still pursue his arrest, and might get him. In any case, his life is over, as we know it. He becomes the ultimate loser

Trump Asylum Thread 15/

We KNOW Trump wanted to ecape the USA. He filed a flight plan for Scotland on 21 January, but the UK said no, because of Covid travel restrictions. Will Trump flee? He IS a flight risk, but the above shows what bad consequences he would face. Next. Where?

Trump Asylum Thread 16/

Note, if Trump HIMSELF flees, all around him are vulnerable, and the house of cards collapses. His kids, the various minions, all go to prison - or ALSO have to flee the country, and fast. And Trump is NOT ABOUT to warn ANYONE of such extreme plans.

Trump Asylum Thread 17/

Where would he go? OBVIOUSLY it must be Russia. Manafort! His boy Yanukovych fled to Russia. Trump pardoned Manafort. Trump was Putin's Trump bitch. Trump has plans for a Trump Tower in Moscow. Duh. It would seem the obvious destination. Why do I say no?

Trump Asylum Thread 18/

Something happened roughly around Spring of 2020. Putin stopped taking Trump's calls. Worse, Putin pulled ALL FUNDING of Trump's re-election campaign, & told MITCH about it. This DOOMED Trump re-election. Which led to the infamous 'Obama Tan' suit meeting

Trump Asylum Thread 19/

Trump lost 2020 by 4%. Had Putin not pulled support, it would have been AT LEAST 3%. Mitch McTurtle pulled GOP Senator support in summer of 2020 - which woulda made it 2%. A NAILBITER. Hillary got 2% more votes than Trump but lost. Putin KNEW. Deliberate

Trump Asylum Thread 20/

(again, I take a pause, because TW doesn't support long threads. I post these first items, then return with where might Trump go, and some final thoughts.. hold on, part 2 is coming, and there will not be a part 3 haha)

Trump Asylum Thread 21/

So WHY did Putin suddenly turn on Trump, in Spring of 2020? My guess is General Soleimani, the Iranian General that Trump had assassinated. Iran is one of Putin's closest allies. Putin did NOT want - or authorize - that killing. But we might never know

Trump Asylum Thread 22/

It is however CLEAR that Putin has dumped Trump. I cannot imagine Putin would take Trump in now as a house guest forever. People who fail Putin rather seem to develop an uncontrollable urge to explore the view at the 10th floor, from outside the window

Trump Asylum Thread 23/

So where then? The country cannot be one that extradites criminals to the USA. So some shady country. Where? A likely candidate is favorite for Bone Saw Boy, Jared: Saudi Arabia. Trump took massive bribes, he could have included asylum as part of any deal

Trump Asylum Thread 24/

Trump might have calculated on Israel with his corrupt buddy Bibi Netanyahu. That would be risky even in peaceful times. Bibi ain't remaining in power forever..

UAE, other participants in 'peace' plan are also obvious candidates

Trump Asylum Thread 25/

Another good candidate is Turkey. Erdogan is the kind of Dictator that Trump loves. Trump has a Trump Tower in Istanbul. Could be protected there. Not sure if their friendship has lasted, but Trump did let Erdogan slaughter Kurds (America's allies)

Trump Asylum Thread 26/

My last point, is something EXCEPTIONALLY valuable to Trump. He would lose his Secret Service protection the moment he is declared an international fugitive. Trump has made a lot of enemies - and ABANDONED a lot of militant gun-huggers from Jan 6.

Trump Asylum Thread 27/

And that means, even now, he cannot 'vanish' suddenly, WHILE KEEPING the Secret Service detail. They MUST plan ALL international travel IN ADVANCE. Or else they cannot protect Trump on that trip. So he would have to abandon them, and escape in secret

Trump Asylum Thread 28/

I said Trump is a flight risk. He still is. But it would cost him dearly, and destroy his political life, including the 'kingmaker' status he now has in GOP. It would devastate his brand, while he was still alive, becoming the ultimate loser.

Trump Asylum Thread 29/

I believe that as long as Trump thinks he has a CHANCE to beat the rap in the USA, he remains here. And he will overplay his hand, and be caught, perp-walked, in the USA.

BUT if he flees, it will not be to Russia. Most likely are Turkey, UAE or Saudi

PS to Asylum

Of COURSE I forgot something important. That intended asylum country was carefully nurtured when Trump was President. That COUNTRY needed Trump AS President

Trump thinks he can BUY friends or loyalty. His dealings are ALL transactional. The PROMISES might not hold