Thread by @fab_hinz

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Badr 3/Nafea rocket is neither particularly long-range nor that sophisticated. Yet, what is interesting about it is that it offers a rare glimpse into Iran’s role in the domestic production of rockets in Gaza. Thread.

The Badr 3 is an unguided rocket that was first introduced by Islamic Jihad in 2019. What make it stand out is its warhead with a weight of between 300 and 400kg (sources differ) which is much heavier than warheads of regular Palestinian rockets.

PIJ used the Badr 3 extensively during the recent confrontation with Israel. While its exact range is unknown, Badr 3 strikes against Ashkelon and Netivot indicate it’s at least 13km.

So what are the data points, both weak and strong, tying the rocket to Iran? Well, as soon as the rocket was unveiled it immediately generated a large interest by various Iranian media outlets. Now that in itself might not be that significant yet. However…

closer examination shows the rocket to be almost identical to the al-Qassim rocket displayed by TDMP, the military-industrial arm of Iraq’s Shia militia-dominated PMF. So either there is very close cooperation between PIJ and the PMF or there is a third actor behind the rocket

Enter the VS Quds leaks, documents showing the technical cooperation between Iran’s Quds forces and regional proxies. Likely published by a regional intel service, they contain quite a bit of info on the Badr 3. vsquds.info

Among the documents are technical diagrams showing the Badr 3’s warhead and the casing used for propellant casting. Both are marked in English as well as Farsi.

A video showing various production steps of the Badr 3 includes the casting of propellant in an building featuring a tan brick wall, the default industrial architectural style in Iran but more rare outside the country.

Last but not least, there is also a video of a Badr 3 flight test that clearly wasn't taken in Gaza. The documents mention tests at Iran’s Semnan range and the mountain ridge in the background does seem to match the mountains close to the Semnan range. 35.2164° 53.946°

Taken together, all of this indicates that while the rocket might be built in Gaza, Iran played a crucial role in its development and testing process. It’slikely the system was actually designed in Iran specifically for local production by proxies including PIJ and PMF factions.

And behold, after the Badr 3 began to see heavy use in the current round of escalation, the PIJ's spokesman released a video thanking PIJ’s local production team but also the ‘Resistance Axis headed by Iran’ for the rocket.

Of course all of this also has to be seen in the context of Hamas, PIJ, the IRGC and Israeli officials openly talking about the role Iran played in establishing Gaza's rocket industry.

End. If you want to learn more about Iran’s strategy to proliferate rocket and missile production tech, also check out my recent article for IISS.
iiss.org/blogs/research…

Addendum for all the rockets and missile nerds: What is also interesting about the Badr 3 is that its motor doesn’t seem to use a single propellant cast but rather several small propellant tubes (like the SA-2 booster).