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Fabian Hinz Profile picture
Fabian Hinz
@fab_hinz
Personal account. Missiles. Drones.
Sep 21 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
Longer thread about what we know and what we don’t know about the strange rocket/missile launch observed in Iran on September 18. 1/15 Image
Image The launch's pattern was highly unusual with several evenly-spaced glowing dots seen in the sky initially sparking speculation about a test of multiple re-entry vehicles. 2/15
Jun 25 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
One interesting fact about the MOP: The US appears to have tested it against a real underground facility just 30 kilometers south of the site of the world’s first nuclear weapons test. Thread from a recent OSINT side quest. 1/10 Image The US military has been understandably reluctant to share detailed information about live tests of the MOP. However, several press releases do mention that MOP tests took place at White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) in New Mexico. 2/10 Image
Apr 13 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
People are once again talking about this Sudanese military facility with some claiming it’s a large IRGC-built underground facility. Well, due to recent developments in Sudan’s civil war, we now have a much clearer picture of what this place actually is. Thread 1/13 Image I first found this facility located in the Jabal Garri area North of Khartoum back in 2018 when mapping the Sudanese defense industry. The site stood out both for its size and the lack of any official information on it. 2/13
Nov 30, 2024 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
That is correct. Quick thread on what we know about the al-Safira facility. Image First is the complex that I call al-Safira 1 (35.986° 37.4052). This is/was a production complex for solid propellant rocket motors powering Syria's versions of the Fateh 110 and Zelzal. It's also likely some of Syria's and Hezbollah's longer range artillery rockets were produced there (M302).Image
Sep 16, 2024 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
This recent Reuters report about Russia mass-producing a new strike drone called Garpiya is highly interesting but maybe a bit convoluted. What it seems to boil down to is that Russia has established a second Shahed production line in Izhevsk. Thread 1/14 reuters.com/world/europe/r… Let's begin with the factory itself. Reuters states that the new UAVs are produced by Almaz-Antey subsidiary Kupol in a former cement factory the company acquired. It also mentions that a video showing UAV production matches the facility. 2/14 Image
Jul 19, 2024 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
A few quick thoughts on the alleged Houthi drone that crashed into Tel Aviv. 1/9 Image The Houthis have claimed that they used a new UAV called Yafa for this particular strike. According to the Houthis, the Yafa has the ability overcome enemy defenses and cannot be detected by radar. 2/9
Jun 5, 2024 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
The Houthis just unveiled their new 'Palestine' ballistic missile which they claimed to have used against Eilat for the first time on June 3. A few notes on the type and the likely origin of the missile. 1/10 Image The Palestine is a precision-guided solid propellant missile. This alone is quite noteworthy. So far, the ballistic missiles used by the Houthis against Israel appear to all have been less advanced liquid propellant missiles without terminal guidance. 2/10 Image
Jun 9, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Quick thread on the alleged Shahed production site identified by the US in the Special Economic Zone of Alabuga in Tatarstan 55.821215° 52.051971° Image Back in February, @TheGoodISIS already identified the Russian UAV company Abatros LLC as a potential Shahed manufacturer and there are a few more indications this could indeed be the case. isis-online.org/isis-reports/d…
Jul 10, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Iran’s Turbine Engines Manufacturing Industries (TEM) – the entity responsible for the overhaul and production of regular jet engines as well as production of the miniaturized turbojet and turbofan engines powering Iran’s cruise missiles. Image Geolocation of testing footage of Iran’s Owj (J85) jet engine. ImageImage
Jul 5, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Video should have been take here 35.695590° 51.202895° Broad location of the fire
Jul 5, 2021 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Confidence isn’t 100% but I think I geolocated Iran’s new solid propellant plant inaugurated back in February. Quick thread going through the data points. Footage of the inauguration includes a single, albeit very limited, outside shot showing parts of the facility.
Jul 1, 2021 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
As an analyst you sometimes miss the forest for the trees. Remember this 2014 exhibition on the ‘Achievements of the IRGC-ASF’? Well, it turns out this title is meant to be taken literally, with the systems on display all appearing to be developed by the IRGC itself. Thread. In 2014, the IRGC-ASF organized an exhibition for no other than the Supreme Leader and displayed a mix of well-known and new systems in the field of UAVs, SAMs and surface-to-surface missiles in the process. leader.ir/en/pictures/al…
Jun 21, 2021 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
A quick thread on a pretty unique Iranian weapons system: Iran's HESA Karrar anti-aircraft suicide drone. Image Now you might remember that in 2010, Iran unveiled a pretty odd system called HESA Karrar. Iran claimed the Karrar could be used as both a target drone and a high-speed UCAV to drop unguided bombs. ImageImageImage
May 23, 2021 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
The Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Badr 3/Nafea rocket is neither particularly long-range nor that sophisticated. Yet, what is interesting about it is that it offers a rare glimpse into Iran’s role in the domestic production of rockets in Gaza. Thread.

Image
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Image The Badr 3 is an unguided rocket that was first introduced by Islamic Jihad in 2019. What make it stand out is its warhead with a weight of between 300 and 400kg (sources differ) which is much heavier than warheads of regular Palestinian rockets.
May 13, 2021 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Bit of a meta-tweet on identifying Iranian origins of weapons systems:

There's a tendency to compare weapons with existing Iranian systems and then decide it's an "Ababil" or "Fajr 5" based on some similarities. Sometimes this approach works but often it doesn't. What we now have in theatres like Gaza and Yemen is a concerted Iranian effort to enable the local production of rather simple systems which seem to be specially designed with that purpose in mind. Add to that local autonomy and sub-standard manufacturing.
May 2, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Because they don't realize just how cynical the woke are. For them it's not about vulnerable minorities, it's about using vulnerable minorities as a tool and shield for whatever they want. Of course that's not a conscious Macchiavellian process. They make themselves genuinely believe that whatever their very online ingroup believes that day is indistinguishable from the interest of vulnerable minorities.
May 1, 2021 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
Thread about the riddle that is Abu Zabal Factory 91: Egypt's solid propellant missile factory. Image If you are interested in missile proliferation, there is a good chance you have heard about the 1980s Condor 2 project. In a nutshell, it was a joint program by Argentina, Iraq and Egypt to build a highly sophisticated solid-propellant ballistic missile. ImageImage
Mar 26, 2021 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Folks, we👏have👏to👏talk👏about👏decolonizing👏nonproliferation👏 THREAD Inspired by the trailblazing research of @TitaniaMcGrath, I hereby present my totally serious suggestions for making nonproliferation a diverse and safe space for everyone. Get into listening mode everyone! 💅
Mar 25, 2021 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
So what are the Egyptians working on? It's very difficult to know. One data point is a 2013 statement by retired military intelligence brigadier general Muhsin Saad Metwalli, who claimed Egypt produced a 3000km missile with Russian, Chinese and Korean assistance. However... it is entirely unclear where he got his information from. It could be official information gained during his duty or just some military gossip.
Mar 25, 2021 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Egypt refurbished its missile engine test stands in early 2020. Time for a quick thread on the Jabal Hamza test site, Egypt's liquid propellant missile program, and what (little) we know about its current status. The Jabal Hamza test site goes back to the 1960s, when German engineers tried to develop an ambitious liquid-propellant missile arsenal for Nasser. The program eventually failed with the Germans and Egyptians unable to produce a working missile.
Mar 14, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The Houthis are going underground. In 2019, the movement seems to have reactivated a Saleh-era underground facility at Hafa military base in Sanaa, which had been destroyed by coalition airstrikes back in 2015. (15.325075° 44.239581°) Piles of tailings showing up near the Southern entrance to the site also indicate tunelling work and a potential expansion of the old site.