Thread by @DrSimEvans

In its WEO 2008 the IEA "reference scenario" suggested coal power would reach 12,000TWh by 2020

In reality, coal was 25% lower (-3,000TWh, equiv of overall EU demand)

Solar output was 8x higher than expected
Wind nearly twice as high

What else was different?

1/

HT @KetanJ0

Gas, hydro, wind and solar all significantly outperformed the IEA's reference scenario expectations from 2008, whereas nuclear and coal were lower

Demand overall was lower than expected, too

2/

There are at least two ways to read this

A) yah boo, the IEA got it wrong on renewables (again)
B) the world implemented a lot of new climate policy since 2008, beyond the static view of the 2008 "reference scenario" (pic)

…but really it's (C), a mixture of both

3/

Contra the oft-repeated idea that the world has made little progress on climate change, there is a huge difference between where we are today and the "on current trends…as much as 6C" expected in 2008

4/

Finally, as @fbirol did last week by looking at WEO2009, it's fascinating to look back at how WEO2008 talked about the climate challenge:

"what is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution"

5/ends

iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/89d1f68…

Here's the tweet from @KetanJ0 than inspired my thread