FACTCHECK: Almost all the headlines on Tony Blair / net-zero are *wildly* inaccurate

REALITY:

1️⃣Net-zero is *only way* to stop warming
2️⃣Blair calls for tech to "turbocharge our path to net-zero"
3️⃣He categorically *does not* say "net-zero is doomed to fail"

🧵
1/6 Blair says a "strategy based on either 'phasing out' fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail"

This is logically & categorically not the same as saying "net-zero is doomed to fail"

(If you can't see why, I can't help you)
2/6

NEW: Official advisers CCC say UK shld cut emissions 87% by 2040

⚖️Net cost of net-zero 73% less than thought
💷Total cost to 2050 = £108bn (~£4bn/yr, 0.2% GDP)
🏡🚗H’hold energy/fuel bills to fall £1,400
🔌Electrification is key

THREAD + charts



1/10 carbonbrief.org/ccc-reducing-e… Just so we're clear, let's start with why bother

We're seeing record heat – 100% caused by our emissions – and extreme weather, from floods to droughts to heatwaves

IPCC says net-zero is only way to stop this getting worse



2/10 carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…

THREAD: New UK govt contract with Drax biomass power plant

* 4-yr contract 2027-2031
* £113/MWh (2012 prices – £155 in today's money)
* Output cap of 6TWh (<2% of UK supplies, cf recent yrs 12-15TWh)
* CfD cost ~£500m/yr
* 100% of fuel must be "sustainable", up from 70%
1/5 UK govt says the contract helps security of electricity supplies, but gives Drax a "much more limited role than today" ie it's limited to run at roughly 25% of its max output

This means it's mainly going to be running when it isn't windy


2/5 questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statem…

+++NEW ANALYSIS+++

UK electricity was the cleanest ever in 2024, with emissions per unit falling by more than two-thirds in a decade

Highlights:
🏭end of coal power after 142yrs
🔥fossil fuels at record-low 29% share
🌄renewables at record-high 45%


1/9 carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-e… UK electricity generation from fossil fuels has more than halved in a decade, falling to 91TWh in 2024 – the lowest level since 1955 and making up the lowest ever share of the total, just 29%

Meanwhile, renewable output has more than doubled, up 122% since 2014 to 143TWh
2/9

Incredible stat:

A single container ship of solar panels can provide as much electricity as more than 50 large LNG tankers of gas – or 100 large coal ships

There's many more insights in IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 – here's a selection 🧵

1/7 Fossil fuels account for 40% of global shipping trade by volume – but only 10% by value

2/7

NEW: How the UK became the first G7 country to phase out coal power 🧵

Four key ingredients in UK's success:

❌🏭Stopping new coal
❤️‍🔥☢️🌄Building alternatives
💷Making polluters pay
📢Clear political signals

But there's much more to say…

1/n

interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…
UK opened the world's first coal power plant in 1882 on London's Holborn Viaduct (pic)

⛰️ Since then, UK coal plants have burned 4.6bn tonnes of coal, emitting 10.4GtCO2
🌍 That's more CO2 than most countries have ever emitted, from all sources (!)

2/n

interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…

Oh dear oh dear, Andrew likes to pose as an energy expert, but *everything* he adds here is wrong

💷His biggest omission is that higher power imports means lower bills for consumers💷

Shall we count the other ways he's wrong?

Yes, let's, with added GIFs and some MATHS🧵

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1820756895512047938

Let's begin with the facts. Andrew doesn't say so, but I am going to assume he is (correctly) quoting data from Montel Analytics, showing that UK electricity imports were 18.9TWh in H1 2024, up 82% from H2 2023

Here's some news coverage of the data:

current-news.co.uk/spike-british-…

NEW ANALYSIS: Cutting the 'green crap' has added £22bn to UK energy bills since 2015

🏘️Insulation rates down 98%
🏚️>1.6m new homes built to low stds
🌄Onshore wind/solar growth crashed

A decade of rollbacks has left the UK more reliant on gas imports – and exposed to high gas prices

carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti… Just over a decade ago, then-PM David Cameron was infamously reported to have told aides to "get rid of the green crap" as a "solution to soaring energy prices"…

Fossil-fueled chemicals boss Sir Jim Ratcliffe has an anti-EV tirade in today’s Daily Telegraph, littered with outright falsehoods, half-truths and selective facts

Exhibit 1: Far from "coming to a halt", EV demand grew by 25% in Q1 of this year

Let’s take a look shall we?

1/ Exhibit 2: Ratcliffe cherrypicks Germany – where EV subsidies recently ended – to argue that demand is drying up

As already mentioned, global EV sales grew 25% in Q1 of this year, according to the IEA

2/

It seems @mattwridley thinks @Telegraph readers are idiots

Let's run the numbers:

244,000km2 = area of the UK
5-10% = share of UK Matt says would need to be covered with solar to meet electricity demand in June

40MW = solar capacity per km2
500-1,000GW = solar capacity, if covering 5-10% of UK
300% = share of total UK electricity demand that would be generated by 1,000GW of UK solar
650GW = current solar capacity of China, roughly half the global total
<30GW = actual UK summer peak demand

15GW = current solar capacity of UK, of which ~10GW ground mounted
0.1% = current solar land take
70GW = UK govt solar target, because no one thinks we can run the country on solar alone
<1% = future land take

>20% = reduction in UK gas imports if govt solar target is met

Zero = credibility of Matt's article
Sources:

Land requirement for UK solar 40MW per km2 = 6 acres per MW, based on current solar farms; as noted in the article, govt says future farms would need 2-3x less land

carbonbrief.org/factcheck-is-s…

Despite all the UK govt rhetoric about "new gas", confirmation today in parliament that govt expects unabated gas to meet ~1% of demand in 2035

Minister @grahamstuart, responding to an urgent Q from @CarolineLucas, described new gas capacity as "back-up…sensible insurance"

1/ In the debate, we also saw the mask slip from former sec of state Jacob Rees-Mogg, who as a govt minister paid lip service to climate action (left) but now admits he wants to "postpone net-zero indefinitely" (right)

2/

🚨BREAKING🚨

UK emissions in 2023 fell to lowest since 1879, new @CarbonBrief reveals

💷Emissions now 53% below 1990, as GDP up 82%
❤️‍🔥Drop in 2023 largely unrelated to policy
⛰️Coal now lowest since 1730s (!)
🚗Transport is largest sector, then buildings
⚡️Power now likely emits less than farms🐄

1/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-em… UK emissions have now fallen in 25 of 34 yrs since 1990 – and pretty much every yr for past two decades

Latest 23MtCO2e (5.7%) reduction in 2023 takes UK territorial emissions down to 383MtCO2e, lowest since 1879 – when Queen Vic was on the throne

2/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-em…

The @IEA just published two fascinating reports

Here are some of the best charts

1/

Clean energy is growing twice as fast as fossil fuels 2/

Global CO2 emissions rose again in 2023, but clean energy is slowing that growth like never before

Everything about Hinkley C is big…

£46bn – potential cost (2008 est = £9bn)
14yrs – potential delay (2031 vs 2017)
25TWh – expected output
10MtCO2 – CO2 saving, displacing gas
4% – share of UK 2030 Paris pledge

At risk – CO2 goals; EDF bottomline; Labour 2030 target

🧵 Let's start with cost

UK govt White Paper of 2008 estimated new 3.2GW (2*1.6) nuclear plant would cost £5.6bn, about £9bn in today's money

When agreed in 2018, it was £(2015 prices)18bn, ~£24bn in today's money

Now it's £(2015)31-35bn = up to £46bn today

BREAKING new #COP28 stocktake text

Fossil fuel "phase out" is GONE

Whole energy package is loose "actions that cld inc"

➡️refs renewables, CCS for "efforts twds substitution of unabated fossil fuels"
➡️loose 2050 timeline
➡️no methane target

unfccc.int/sites/default/…
New #COP28 stocktake text

Just to note before going further, this is now in hands of the presidency, which is expected at this stage

🇨🇳🇺🇸US-China climate statement

Some key highlights:

🌄backs goal to triple renewables by 2030
🏭links it to power sector CO2 cuts this decade
🏬mentions efficiency but not goal of doubling rate
🏗️agrees to "advance" 5x large CCS each by 2030

1/4 🇨🇳🇺🇸US-China climate statement

🔥pledges to include "actions/targets" on methane in their 2035 NDCs

(CN's recently released methane plan has actions but no numerical targets, so this wording is important)

2/4

FACTCHECK

Another Daily Telegraph comment by Michael Kelly, trustee of Tufton St climate-sceptic lobbyists the GWPF, fails to mention his affiliation

Under an obviously false headline, Kelly makes what appears to be a schoolboy error, confusing annual costs with total costs 🧵 Before looking at the schoolboy error, let's quickly show why the headline's false

Kelly refers to a Royal Society report (link) but fails to mention its key finding: UK really CAN get all its power from wind, solar + storage – for a "favourabl[e]" price

royalsociety.org/topics-policy/…

THREAD

My usual deep-dive on @IEA #WEO23

📉Global CO2 cld peak *AS SOON AS THIS YR*
⛰️Global fossil fuel use peak in 2025
🇨🇳China fossil fuel use peak in 2024 (!)
🌄Solar outlook for 2050 up 69% vs last yr (!)
🌡️Warming 2.4C (🔽 2.6C 2021 ⏬ 3.5C 2015)

carbonbrief.org/analysis-globa…
#WEO23

Global fossil fuel use is set to peak ~2025, with coal (2022), oil (~2028) and gas (~2029) all peaking by 2030 under current govt policies, for the first time

@IEA warns of "overinvestment" + pushes back on calls for increased oil & gas spend

carbonbrief.org/analysis-globa…

MEGA FACTCHECK

EVs are “likely crucial” for tackling transport CO2, says the IPCC – and sales are rocketing

But EVs still face relentless hostile media coverage

So, I spent the past few months debunking 21 (!) of the most common EV myths

Here it is 🧵

carbonbrief.org/factcheck-21-m…
FALSE: Matt Ridley and others keep reusing a claim that EVs have to travel 50,000+ miles to "break even"

The true figure is more like 13,000 miles

carbonbrief.org/factcheck-21-m…

UK media & net-zero

A parable in 4 parts, after y'day's @NatInfraCom rpt

1) Daily Mail makes up* "£1tn cost of net-zero"
2) Mail comment slams "£1tn"
3) Sun piles in too
4) NIC itself says its plan wld cut hhold costs

Short THREAD





Yday @NatInfraCom released a big report on UK infrastructure investment needs over next 30yrs

It says there are some massive investment needs to address congestion, digital access, flooding, net-zero and etc etc etc

BUT it says its plan cuts hhold costs, esp for energy

THREAD

Rishi Sunak's UK climate policy U-turns "made meeting future targets harder" says @theCCCuk

Sunak's cranked up risks to emissions cuts in buildings, transport & electricity

Contrary to Sunak, CCC says rollbacks "likely to incr…energy bills & motoring costs for hholds" CCC blows a huge hole in Sunak's argument

He framed his rollbacks as removing "unacceptable costs" from "hard-working British ppl"

But CCC says he's INCREASED costs bc EVs are "significantly cheaper…to own & operate" & cancelling efficiency rules will cost renters £325/yr