It seems @mattwridley thinks @Telegraph readers are idiots

Let's run the numbers:

244,000km2 = area of the UK
5-10% = share of UK Matt says would need to be covered with solar to meet electricity demand in June

40MW = solar capacity per km2
500-1,000GW = solar capacity, if covering 5-10% of UK
300% = share of total UK electricity demand that would be generated by 1,000GW of UK solar
650GW = current solar capacity of China, roughly half the global total
<30GW = actual UK summer peak demand

15GW = current solar capacity of UK, of which ~10GW ground mounted
0.1% = current solar land take
70GW = UK govt solar target, because no one thinks we can run the country on solar alone
<1% = future land take

>20% = reduction in UK gas imports if govt solar target is met

Zero = credibility of Matt's article
Sources:

Land requirement for UK solar 40MW per km2 = 6 acres per MW, based on current solar farms; as noted in the article, govt says future farms would need 2-3x less land

carbonbrief.org/factcheck-is-s…

Despite all the UK govt rhetoric about "new gas", confirmation today in parliament that govt expects unabated gas to meet ~1% of demand in 2035

Minister @grahamstuart, responding to an urgent Q from @CarolineLucas, described new gas capacity as "back-up…sensible insurance"

1/ In the debate, we also saw the mask slip from former sec of state Jacob Rees-Mogg, who as a govt minister paid lip service to climate action (left) but now admits he wants to "postpone net-zero indefinitely" (right)

2/

🚨BREAKING🚨

UK emissions in 2023 fell to lowest since 1879, new @CarbonBrief reveals

💷Emissions now 53% below 1990, as GDP up 82%
❤️‍🔥Drop in 2023 largely unrelated to policy
⛰️Coal now lowest since 1730s (!)
🚗Transport is largest sector, then buildings
⚡️Power now likely emits less than farms🐄

1/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-em… UK emissions have now fallen in 25 of 34 yrs since 1990 – and pretty much every yr for past two decades

Latest 23MtCO2e (5.7%) reduction in 2023 takes UK territorial emissions down to 383MtCO2e, lowest since 1879 – when Queen Vic was on the throne

2/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-em…

The @IEA just published two fascinating reports

Here are some of the best charts

1/

Clean energy is growing twice as fast as fossil fuels 2/

Global CO2 emissions rose again in 2023, but clean energy is slowing that growth like never before

Everything about Hinkley C is big…

£46bn – potential cost (2008 est = £9bn)
14yrs – potential delay (2031 vs 2017)
25TWh – expected output
10MtCO2 – CO2 saving, displacing gas
4% – share of UK 2030 Paris pledge

At risk – CO2 goals; EDF bottomline; Labour 2030 target

🧵 Let's start with cost

UK govt White Paper of 2008 estimated new 3.2GW (2*1.6) nuclear plant would cost £5.6bn, about £9bn in today's money

When agreed in 2018, it was £(2015 prices)18bn, ~£24bn in today's money

Now it's £(2015)31-35bn = up to £46bn today

BREAKING new #COP28 stocktake text

Fossil fuel "phase out" is GONE

Whole energy package is loose "actions that cld inc"

➡️refs renewables, CCS for "efforts twds substitution of unabated fossil fuels"
➡️loose 2050 timeline
➡️no methane target

unfccc.int/sites/default/…
New #COP28 stocktake text

Just to note before going further, this is now in hands of the presidency, which is expected at this stage

🇨🇳🇺🇸US-China climate statement

Some key highlights:

🌄backs goal to triple renewables by 2030
🏭links it to power sector CO2 cuts this decade
🏬mentions efficiency but not goal of doubling rate
🏗️agrees to "advance" 5x large CCS each by 2030

1/4 🇨🇳🇺🇸US-China climate statement

🔥pledges to include "actions/targets" on methane in their 2035 NDCs

(CN's recently released methane plan has actions but no numerical targets, so this wording is important)

2/4

FACTCHECK

Another Daily Telegraph comment by Michael Kelly, trustee of Tufton St climate-sceptic lobbyists the GWPF, fails to mention his affiliation

Under an obviously false headline, Kelly makes what appears to be a schoolboy error, confusing annual costs with total costs 🧵 Before looking at the schoolboy error, let's quickly show why the headline's false

Kelly refers to a Royal Society report (link) but fails to mention its key finding: UK really CAN get all its power from wind, solar + storage – for a "favourabl[e]" price

royalsociety.org/topics-policy/…

THREAD

My usual deep-dive on @IEA #WEO23

📉Global CO2 cld peak *AS SOON AS THIS YR*
⛰️Global fossil fuel use peak in 2025
🇨🇳China fossil fuel use peak in 2024 (!)
🌄Solar outlook for 2050 up 69% vs last yr (!)
🌡️Warming 2.4C (🔽 2.6C 2021 ⏬ 3.5C 2015)

carbonbrief.org/analysis-globa…
#WEO23

Global fossil fuel use is set to peak ~2025, with coal (2022), oil (~2028) and gas (~2029) all peaking by 2030 under current govt policies, for the first time

@IEA warns of "overinvestment" + pushes back on calls for increased oil & gas spend

carbonbrief.org/analysis-globa…

MEGA FACTCHECK

EVs are “likely crucial” for tackling transport CO2, says the IPCC – and sales are rocketing

But EVs still face relentless hostile media coverage

So, I spent the past few months debunking 21 (!) of the most common EV myths

Here it is 🧵

carbonbrief.org/factcheck-21-m…
FALSE: Matt Ridley and others keep reusing a claim that EVs have to travel 50,000+ miles to "break even"

The true figure is more like 13,000 miles

carbonbrief.org/factcheck-21-m…

UK media & net-zero

A parable in 4 parts, after y'day's @NatInfraCom rpt

1) Daily Mail makes up* "£1tn cost of net-zero"
2) Mail comment slams "£1tn"
3) Sun piles in too
4) NIC itself says its plan wld cut hhold costs

Short THREAD





Yday @NatInfraCom released a big report on UK infrastructure investment needs over next 30yrs

It says there are some massive investment needs to address congestion, digital access, flooding, net-zero and etc etc etc

BUT it says its plan cuts hhold costs, esp for energy

THREAD

Rishi Sunak's UK climate policy U-turns "made meeting future targets harder" says @theCCCuk

Sunak's cranked up risks to emissions cuts in buildings, transport & electricity

Contrary to Sunak, CCC says rollbacks "likely to incr…energy bills & motoring costs for hholds" CCC blows a huge hole in Sunak's argument

He framed his rollbacks as removing "unacceptable costs" from "hard-working British ppl"

But CCC says he's INCREASED costs bc EVs are "significantly cheaper…to own & operate" & cancelling efficiency rules will cost renters £325/yr

A Tufton St guide to "honest debate" on net-zero

(aka how Civitas got embarrassingly wrong numbers into Sun, Mail, Times & Express)

1⃣Send to lobby journos, not specialists
2⃣Get Tufton St chums to write supportive comment
3⃣Trust editors to take crazy numbers at face value

🧵 A Tufton St guide to "honest debate" on net-zero (cont)

4⃣Pretend fossil-based tech is free
5⃣Ignore saving of buying less fossil fuel
6⃣Confuse MW & MWh so you can say wind costs £1,300,000/MWh (reality is £50-70/MWh)
7⃣Falsely assert gas power must close early & make up cost

NEW

Staying below 1.5C wld save $12tn & create more jobs than are lost, says @IEA

To get on track by 2030 we need…

🌄3x renewables
🏬2x efficiency
🚗"sharply" more EVs & heat pumps
🔥-75% methane emissions
🏭🔥⛽️-25% fossil fuel use

🧵let's dive in

iea.org/reports/net-ze…
First, an absolutely key point from IEA net-zero report

Staying below 1.5C would save $12tn

You read that right

We need huge clean tech invst for 1.5C
We wld save even more by buying less fossil fuels

🤯$12tn by 2050🤯

This doesn't include climate or air quality benefits

FACTCHECK

Rishi Sunak claims he's saving families from "unacceptable costs" but he's actually going to cost renters £2bn/yr (by keeping their homes draughty) & drivers £6bn (bc EVs will be cheaper upfront by 2030 anyway) Source for £2bn

x.com/joshemden/stat…

NEW

The UK government has just quietly published estimates showing wind and solar will be several times cheaper than gas, for the foreseeable future

A few senior cabinet members (& a large section of the media) might like to take a look?

THREAD with charts + caveats Here's another view of the data, showing the range of uncertainty – particularly around gas costs, given, er, volatile gas prices

(NB it isn't clear if these figures use post-gas-crisis gas price projections or not; if they haven't, then in reality gas'd look even worse)

FACTCHECK

UK PM Rishi Sunak has defended new North Sea oil & gas licences with false or misleading justifications

Yes, the world will continue to use oil & gas in 2050

But new licences are likely to raise global emissions & would not be compatible with the 1.5C limit

🧵 1) Sunak says "even in 2050 when we are net-zero…around a quarter of our energy needs will still come from oil and gas"

This could be more or less true (see following tweets) – but it's also complete misdirection

Let's take this point by point…

Your regular reminder that most estimates of "economically optimal" warming are bunkum:

🙉ignore technological learning
🙈omit many damages inc temp & rainfall extremes
🙊assume damages follow simple quadratic eqn

Meanwhile…IMF says net-zero would boost GDP

Receipts in 🧵 Per the table, from USEPA, estimates of climate damages tend to simply ignore many major known sources of, er, climate damage, including temp/rain extremes, several potential tipping points etc etc etc

https://t.co/DO3HpSGrEoepa.gov/system/files/d…

This week in extreme weather

An ongoing thread of newspaper frontpages from around the world

1/ The Week

"Climate meltdown" 2/ The Times of India

"Rain toll in North rises to 69 as rivers overflow in many states"

FACTCHECK

The Daily Mail is running what looks set to be a week-long campaign against electric cars

One of its central claims is that EVs are "not green"

This is FALSE

The Mail's figures are from 2020, were debunked at the time & relate to a car that's been discontinued

🧵 The Daily Mail claims "VW's e-Golf becom[es] more environmentally friendly only after 77,000 miles, according to the manufacturer's own figures"

Problem 1: Production of the e-Golf was discontinued nearly three years ago, in December 2020

In light of *that* BBC News article on a North Sea oil and gas producer wanting to produce more oil and gas, here are a few home truths

1/4 UK oil production is in terminal decline, with or without new fields 2/ The same is true for the UK's North Sea gas production – because we burned most of it already