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Posts/data about climate+energy Press Gazette energy & envt journo of yr 2022 Deputy Ed, Senior Policy Ed @CarbonBrief DMs open simon.evans@carbonbrief.org
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May 15 7 tweets 4 min read
Could this be the biggest climate story of the year?

For the first time on record, China's emissions are falling due to clean energy growth, not slow power demand

Full analysis + outlook by Lauri Myllyvirta:


1/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image In Q1 of 2025, the clean-energy driven drop in power sector CO2 outweighed small increases in other sectors of China's economy, driving a 1.6% fall year-on-year overall


2/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image
Apr 30 6 tweets 3 min read
FACTCHECK: Almost all the headlines on Tony Blair / net-zero are *wildly* inaccurate

REALITY:

1️⃣Net-zero is *only way* to stop warming
2️⃣Blair calls for tech to "turbocharge our path to net-zero"
3️⃣He categorically *does not* say "net-zero is doomed to fail"

🧵
1/6 Image Blair says a "strategy based on either 'phasing out' fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail"

This is logically & categorically not the same as saying "net-zero is doomed to fail"

(If you can't see why, I can't help you)
2/6 Image
Feb 26 17 tweets 7 min read
NEW: Official advisers CCC say UK shld cut emissions 87% by 2040

⚖️Net cost of net-zero 73% less than thought
💷Total cost to 2050 = £108bn (~£4bn/yr, 0.2% GDP)
🏡🚗H’hold energy/fuel bills to fall £1,400
🔌Electrification is key

THREAD + charts



1/10 carbonbrief.org/ccc-reducing-e…Image Just so we're clear, let's start with why bother

We're seeing record heat – 100% caused by our emissions – and extreme weather, from floods to droughts to heatwaves

IPCC says net-zero is only way to stop this getting worse



2/10 carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…Image
Feb 10 6 tweets 3 min read
THREAD: New UK govt contract with Drax biomass power plant

* 4-yr contract 2027-2031
* £113/MWh (2012 prices – £155 in today's money)
* Output cap of 6TWh (<2% of UK supplies, cf recent yrs 12-15TWh)
* CfD cost ~£500m/yr
* 100% of fuel must be "sustainable", up from 70%
1/5 Image UK govt says the contract helps security of electricity supplies, but gives Drax a "much more limited role than today" ie it's limited to run at roughly 25% of its max output

This means it's mainly going to be running when it isn't windy


2/5 questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statem…Image
Jan 2 9 tweets 4 min read
+++NEW ANALYSIS+++

UK electricity was the cleanest ever in 2024, with emissions per unit falling by more than two-thirds in a decade

Highlights:
🏭end of coal power after 142yrs
🔥fossil fuels at record-low 29% share
🌄renewables at record-high 45%


1/9 carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-e…Image UK electricity generation from fossil fuels has more than halved in a decade, falling to 91TWh in 2024 – the lowest level since 1955 and making up the lowest ever share of the total, just 29%

Meanwhile, renewable output has more than doubled, up 122% since 2014 to 143TWh
2/9 Image
Oct 30, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read
Incredible stat:

A single container ship of solar panels can provide as much electricity as more than 50 large LNG tankers of gas – or 100 large coal ships

There's many more insights in IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 – here's a selection 🧵

1/7 Image Fossil fuels account for 40% of global shipping trade by volume – but only 10% by value

2/7 Image
Sep 27, 2024 10 tweets 6 min read
NEW: How the UK became the first G7 country to phase out coal power 🧵

Four key ingredients in UK's success:

❌🏭Stopping new coal
❤️‍🔥☢️🌄Building alternatives
💷Making polluters pay
📢Clear political signals

But there's much more to say…

1/n

interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…
Image UK opened the world's first coal power plant in 1882 on London's Holborn Viaduct (pic)

⛰️ Since then, UK coal plants have burned 4.6bn tonnes of coal, emitting 10.4GtCO2
🌍 That's more CO2 than most countries have ever emitted, from all sources (!)

2/n

interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…
Image
Aug 6, 2024 15 tweets 6 min read
Oh dear oh dear, Andrew likes to pose as an energy expert, but *everything* he adds here is wrong

💷His biggest omission is that higher power imports means lower bills for consumers💷

Shall we count the other ways he's wrong?

Yes, let's, with added GIFs and some MATHS🧵 Let's begin with the facts. Andrew doesn't say so, but I am going to assume he is (correctly) quoting data from Montel Analytics, showing that UK electricity imports were 18.9TWh in H1 2024, up 82% from H2 2023

Here's some news coverage of the data:

current-news.co.uk/spike-british-…
Jun 18, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read
NEW ANALYSIS: Cutting the 'green crap' has added £22bn to UK energy bills since 2015

🏘️Insulation rates down 98%
🏚️>1.6m new homes built to low stds
🌄Onshore wind/solar growth crashed

A decade of rollbacks has left the UK more reliant on gas imports – and exposed to high gas prices

carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…Image Just over a decade ago, then-PM David Cameron was infamously reported to have told aides to "get rid of the green crap" as a "solution to soaring energy prices"… Image
May 9, 2024 11 tweets 5 min read
Fossil-fueled chemicals boss Sir Jim Ratcliffe has an anti-EV tirade in today’s Daily Telegraph, littered with outright falsehoods, half-truths and selective facts

Exhibit 1: Far from "coming to a halt", EV demand grew by 25% in Q1 of this year

Let’s take a look shall we?

1/ Image Exhibit 2: Ratcliffe cherrypicks Germany – where EV subsidies recently ended – to argue that demand is drying up

As already mentioned, global EV sales grew 25% in Q1 of this year, according to the IEA

2/ Image
Apr 4, 2024 8 tweets 4 min read
It seems @mattwridley thinks @Telegraph readers are idiots

Let's run the numbers:

244,000km2 = area of the UK
5-10% = share of UK Matt says would need to be covered with solar to meet electricity demand in June

40MW = solar capacity per km2
500-1,000GW = solar capacity, if covering 5-10% of UK
300% = share of total UK electricity demand that would be generated by 1,000GW of UK solar
650GW = current solar capacity of China, roughly half the global total
<30GW = actual UK summer peak demand

15GW = current solar capacity of UK, of which ~10GW ground mounted
0.1% = current solar land take
70GW = UK govt solar target, because no one thinks we can run the country on solar alone
<1% = future land take

>20% = reduction in UK gas imports if govt solar target is met

Zero = credibility of Matt's articleImage
Image
Sources:

Land requirement for UK solar 40MW per km2 = 6 acres per MW, based on current solar farms; as noted in the article, govt says future farms would need 2-3x less land

carbonbrief.org/factcheck-is-s…
Mar 13, 2024 6 tweets 3 min read
Despite all the UK govt rhetoric about "new gas", confirmation today in parliament that govt expects unabated gas to meet ~1% of demand in 2035

Minister @grahamstuart, responding to an urgent Q from @CarolineLucas, described new gas capacity as "back-up…sensible insurance"

1/ Image In the debate, we also saw the mask slip from former sec of state Jacob Rees-Mogg, who as a govt minister paid lip service to climate action (left) but now admits he wants to "postpone net-zero indefinitely" (right)

2/
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Mar 11, 2024 10 tweets 6 min read
🚨BREAKING🚨

UK emissions in 2023 fell to lowest since 1879, new @CarbonBrief reveals

💷Emissions now 53% below 1990, as GDP up 82%
❤️‍🔥Drop in 2023 largely unrelated to policy
⛰️Coal now lowest since 1730s (!)
🚗Transport is largest sector, then buildings
⚡️Power now likely emits less than farms🐄

1/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-em…Image UK emissions have now fallen in 25 of 34 yrs since 1990 – and pretty much every yr for past two decades

Latest 23MtCO2e (5.7%) reduction in 2023 takes UK territorial emissions down to 383MtCO2e, lowest since 1879 – when Queen Vic was on the throne

2/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-em…
Image
Mar 1, 2024 12 tweets 5 min read
The @IEA just published two fascinating reports

Here are some of the best charts

1/

Clean energy is growing twice as fast as fossil fuels Image 2/

Global CO2 emissions rose again in 2023, but clean energy is slowing that growth like never before Image
Jan 24, 2024 8 tweets 4 min read
Everything about Hinkley C is big…

£46bn – potential cost (2008 est = £9bn)
14yrs – potential delay (2031 vs 2017)
25TWh – expected output
10MtCO2 – CO2 saving, displacing gas
4% – share of UK 2030 Paris pledge

At risk – CO2 goals; EDF bottomline; Labour 2030 target

🧵 Image Let's start with cost

UK govt White Paper of 2008 estimated new 3.2GW (2*1.6) nuclear plant would cost £5.6bn, about £9bn in today's money

When agreed in 2018, it was £(2015 prices)18bn, ~£24bn in today's money

Now it's £(2015)31-35bn = up to £46bn today
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Dec 11, 2023 13 tweets 5 min read
BREAKING new #COP28 stocktake text

Fossil fuel "phase out" is GONE

Whole energy package is loose "actions that cld inc"

➡️refs renewables, CCS for "efforts twds substitution of unabated fossil fuels"
➡️loose 2050 timeline
➡️no methane target

unfccc.int/sites/default/…
Image New #COP28 stocktake text

Just to note before going further, this is now in hands of the presidency, which is expected at this stage Image
Nov 15, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
🇨🇳🇺🇸US-China climate statement

Some key highlights:

🌄backs goal to triple renewables by 2030
🏭links it to power sector CO2 cuts this decade
🏬mentions efficiency but not goal of doubling rate
🏗️agrees to "advance" 5x large CCS each by 2030

1/4 Image 🇨🇳🇺🇸US-China climate statement

🔥pledges to include "actions/targets" on methane in their 2035 NDCs

(CN's recently released methane plan has actions but no numerical targets, so this wording is important)

2/4 Image
Nov 1, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
FACTCHECK

Another Daily Telegraph comment by Michael Kelly, trustee of Tufton St climate-sceptic lobbyists the GWPF, fails to mention his affiliation

Under an obviously false headline, Kelly makes what appears to be a schoolboy error, confusing annual costs with total costs 🧵 Image Before looking at the schoolboy error, let's quickly show why the headline's false

Kelly refers to a Royal Society report (link) but fails to mention its key finding: UK really CAN get all its power from wind, solar + storage – for a "favourabl[e]" price

royalsociety.org/topics-policy/…
Image
Oct 26, 2023 11 tweets 5 min read
THREAD

My usual deep-dive on @IEA #WEO23

📉Global CO2 cld peak *AS SOON AS THIS YR*
⛰️Global fossil fuel use peak in 2025
🇨🇳China fossil fuel use peak in 2024 (!)
🌄Solar outlook for 2050 up 69% vs last yr (!)
🌡️Warming 2.4C (🔽 2.6C 2021 ⏬ 3.5C 2015)

carbonbrief.org/analysis-globa…
Image #WEO23

Global fossil fuel use is set to peak ~2025, with coal (2022), oil (~2028) and gas (~2029) all peaking by 2030 under current govt policies, for the first time

@IEA warns of "overinvestment" + pushes back on calls for increased oil & gas spend

carbonbrief.org/analysis-globa…
Image
Oct 24, 2023 11 tweets 6 min read
MEGA FACTCHECK

EVs are “likely crucial” for tackling transport CO2, says the IPCC – and sales are rocketing

But EVs still face relentless hostile media coverage

So, I spent the past few months debunking 21 (!) of the most common EV myths

Here it is 🧵

carbonbrief.org/factcheck-21-m…
Image FALSE: Matt Ridley and others keep reusing a claim that EVs have to travel 50,000+ miles to "break even"

The true figure is more like 13,000 miles

carbonbrief.org/factcheck-21-m…
Image
Oct 19, 2023 6 tweets 3 min read
UK media & net-zero

A parable in 4 parts, after y'day's @NatInfraCom rpt

1) Daily Mail makes up* "£1tn cost of net-zero"
2) Mail comment slams "£1tn"
3) Sun piles in too
4) NIC itself says its plan wld cut hhold costs

Short THREAD


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Yday @NatInfraCom released a big report on UK infrastructure investment needs over next 30yrs

It says there are some massive investment needs to address congestion, digital access, flooding, net-zero and etc etc etc

BUT it says its plan cuts hhold costs, esp for energy Image