Thread by @TimmerFidelity

While the S&P 500 has hovered around the 4100 level since April, there has been a lot of churn beneath the surface, with the highest fliers rising to truly spectacular levels before crashing back to earth. THREAD/1

To help visualize this, I indexed the various sectors & styles to the Feb 2020 (pre-Covid) high in the S&P 500. This first chart shows the S&P 500 w/ its eleven sectors. The dispersion in sector performance was very wide last fall (mostly due to energy), but it has tightened. /2

Next, the four style boxes (Russell indices). See the recent lopsided performance by large-cap growth, which then passed the baton to value and small caps a few months ago. Whatever dispersion existed last fall has dwindled, while the S&P 500 churns sideways. /3

Now let’s add in some of the momentum plays, including the meme stocks, the secular growers, and high yield debt-levered stocks. (I used the Goldman Sachs thematic baskets for all of these.) Note that the upper scale expands from 5000 to 7000. /4

Next, let’s add the “non-profitable tech” group and recent liquid IPOs (the ultimate momentum plays). We have to expand the upper scale 12000 to fit in their meteoric rise (and subsequent fall). /5

Finally, let’s add bitcoin and the bitcoin-sensitive equities. Now the scale goes to 24000. This makes the S&P 500—which has doubled in 14 months—seem like T-Bills. /6

Such are the extraordinary times in which we live. Combine a war-like fiscal/monetary cocktail with meme culture, a technological revolution and a pandemic, and we get a market cycle that none of us will soon forget. /END