PHE have published their data for Variants of Concern to 26 May2021
- B.1.617.2 is becoming dominant with 3,535 new cases
- But also increases in these variants of concern
P1 (+21)
B.1.351 (+32)
- New variant under investigation C.36.3 (+109)
cumulative chart excl B.1.1.7
Cumulative chart excluding B.1.1.7 and B.1.617.2
Over 900 cumulative cases of B.1.351 (South Africa)
Cumulative chart on an exponential chart
Variants heatmap (B.1.1.7 not coloured)
Variants heatmap (B.1.1.7 and B.1.617.2 not coloured)
Proportion of *variants* detected each week (B.1.617.2 is in orange, B.1.1.7 is in blue)
For the B.1.617.2 (variant first detected in India), the estimate of the Secondary Attack Rate (a measure of transmissibility) increases as new data is gathered.
This is a real concern, as transmissibility is the key factor (along with vaccine effectiveness) of projections.
We are here (Warwick/SPI-M modelling) - there is uncertainty around these projections and a key factor is transmissibility.
This has been a battle between the virus, vaccines, and variants.
The 'local lockdown' guidance (which was later amended) was presumably issued as there was a need to do so.
There is still uncertainty. However, data from vaccine effectiveness and in particular transmissibility of B.1.617.2 is becoming less uncertain.
The question is: if B.1.617.2 is very transmissible and hospitalizations increase significantly - what is the plan for getting the situation back under control? At the moment, this is not clear.
The takeaway from today's PHE data is the B.1.617.2 (VOC-21APR-02 / 'India') variant is *much* more transmissibile than the B.1.1.7 (VOC-20DEC-01 / 'Kent') variant
The Secondary Attack Rate is *66%* higher in the India variant compared to Kent variant (there remains uncertainty)
Here's my interview this morning with @NickFerrariLBC on @LBC @LBCNews discussing the new data on transmissibility of the B.1.617.2 / India / VOC-21APR-02 variant which is becoming dominant in the UK.
28 May 2021 data
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