Thread by @AlgoHammie

Thread: How I nailed the exact TOP and BOTTOM on $BTC and $ETH
and why I'm a fu*king idi*ot.

The last few weeks:

- First I did everything right AND lost a decent chunk of money

- Then I made a GIANT mistake, I nailed the exact top and bottom, and made a decent chunk of money

1/ Let's see what happened

At the end of February I started leaning towards a top in $BTC. Pretty much nobody back then was seeing anything like it. Yes, I'm cool like that.

2/ People were screaming for flippenings, $BTC at 100k, $ETH at 10k, productive assets, Django OnChained, Ziupercycles and the rest of the memes.

$alts Ziupercycle:

3/ At the end of April, we had a start of a technical downtrend that even a blind man would have seen (except 9/10 of CT of course, most were still looking at memes).

So, did I get the fuk out right at that moment? No.

4/ No, because the exit plan I use for $alts exposure wasn't giving any signal in that direction.

The signal came when we where already halfway through the nuke, and I took a 30% cut on unrealized profits. See post-mortem here:

/5 So basically I saw the top developing before most and still took a decent chunk of the nuke right in my face.

Was I happy about it? HECK NO

Did I do the right thing? Yes. YES.

Let me repeat: did I do the right thing? YES.

You'll soon see why.

...to be continued, I haz to clean the house (like a real woman)

6/ What happened after this?

On May 23rd I bought the pico-bottom in $BTC (and bought several $alts). Then I sold the exact top 4 days later.

Top-tier trade you would think.

No. Top-tier huge mistake.

Did I have any planned setup for a trade like this? No.

7/ But I almost "felt the trade", you know, when you "feel it". BS.

I made the 30% of unrealized profits back and some.

Was I happy about it? HECK YES (for like an hour, then rage kicked in)

Did I do the right thing? NO. I WAS A TOTAL 🤡 AND MADE A GIANT ROOKIE MISTAKE.

8/ If you don't understand this one you'll have a really hard time trading.

Again, did I have any planned setup for a trade like this? No.

One of the things that fuks most traders up is judging decisions by the outcome.

9/ You can read a good book by Anne Duke on that, "Thinking in Bets".

In the first instance, when I lost money, I made the correct choice: I followed my exit setup that has a verifiable edge over a statistical sequence of trades.

10/ If you don't know what an edge is you shouldn't even be trading.

Read this one: learntotradethemarket.com/forex-articles…

Having an edge basically means that, mathematically, you have, on a SERIES of trades, statistical probability on your side to win more than you lose.

11/ You're basically acting like a Casino.

You're basically fuking printing.

In the second instance, when I made money, I made the wrong choice, I was just swinging it based on "instincts" and risked digging an even bigger, totally unnecessary hole in my account.

12/ I had no edge whatsoever. I made a mistake and I was LUCKY.

If u can't differentiate between luck and skill, sorry but, again, u shouldn't even be trading.

Lacking this critical thinking skill is why people making boatloads out of nowhere on doggocoins shouldn't trigger you

13/ Will they recognize it's just sheer luck and exit the casino when they're on top? NO.

They will keep betting until the casino takes it all back.

14/ Recap:

A) In one case I made the right decision and had a bad outcome, lost $$$

B) In one case I made the wrong decision and had a good outcome, made $$$

DO NOT - EVER - judge the trades you make by the outcome.

15/ Your job as a trader is to

1. Have a plan
2. With a verifiable edge
3. Just execute the plan
4. Without even thinking about the outcome of the next trade (because it's totally irrelevant in the long run)

16/ If you do that, in the long run, you'll make money, ton of it, effortlessly.

If you don't do that, it's only a matter of time, you will make some money, lose some, make it big, then lose it bigger, until you go back to zero.

Peace out and have a great weekend.