Thread: How I nailed the exact TOP and BOTTOM on $BTC and $ETH
and why I'm a fu*king idi*ot.
The last few weeks:
- First I did everything right AND lost a decent chunk of money
- Then I made a GIANT mistake, I nailed the exact top and bottom, and made a decent chunk of money
and why I'm a fu*king idi*ot.
The last few weeks:
- First I did everything right AND lost a decent chunk of money
- Then I made a GIANT mistake, I nailed the exact top and bottom, and made a decent chunk of money
1/ Let's see what happened
At the end of February I started leaning towards a top in $BTC. Pretty much nobody back then was seeing anything like it. Yes, I'm cool like that.
At the end of February I started leaning towards a top in $BTC. Pretty much nobody back then was seeing anything like it. Yes, I'm cool like that.
2/ People were screaming for flippenings, $BTC at 100k, $ETH at 10k, productive assets, Django OnChained, Ziupercycles and the rest of the memes.
$alts Ziupercycle:
$alts Ziupercycle:
3/ At the end of April, we had a start of a technical downtrend that even a blind man would have seen (except 9/10 of CT of course, most were still looking at memes).
So, did I get the fuk out right at that moment? No.
So, did I get the fuk out right at that moment? No.
4/ No, because the exit plan I use for $alts exposure wasn't giving any signal in that direction.
The signal came when we where already halfway through the nuke, and I took a 30% cut on unrealized profits. See post-mortem here:
The signal came when we where already halfway through the nuke, and I took a 30% cut on unrealized profits. See post-mortem here:
https://twitter.com/AlgoHammie/status/1395294274359631873?s=20
/5 So basically I saw the top developing before most and still took a decent chunk of the nuke right in my face.
Was I happy about it? HECK NO
Did I do the right thing? Yes. YES.
Let me repeat: did I do the right thing? YES.
You'll soon see why.
Was I happy about it? HECK NO
Did I do the right thing? Yes. YES.
Let me repeat: did I do the right thing? YES.
You'll soon see why.
...to be continued, I haz to clean the house (like a real woman)
6/ What happened after this?
On May 23rd I bought the pico-bottom in $BTC (and bought several $alts). Then I sold the exact top 4 days later.
Top-tier trade you would think.
No. Top-tier huge mistake.
Did I have any planned setup for a trade like this? No.
On May 23rd I bought the pico-bottom in $BTC (and bought several $alts). Then I sold the exact top 4 days later.
Top-tier trade you would think.
No. Top-tier huge mistake.
Did I have any planned setup for a trade like this? No.
7/ But I almost "felt the trade", you know, when you "feel it". BS.
I made the 30% of unrealized profits back and some.
Was I happy about it? HECK YES (for like an hour, then rage kicked in)
Did I do the right thing? NO. I WAS A TOTAL 🤡 AND MADE A GIANT ROOKIE MISTAKE.
I made the 30% of unrealized profits back and some.
Was I happy about it? HECK YES (for like an hour, then rage kicked in)
Did I do the right thing? NO. I WAS A TOTAL 🤡 AND MADE A GIANT ROOKIE MISTAKE.
8/ If you don't understand this one you'll have a really hard time trading.
Again, did I have any planned setup for a trade like this? No.
One of the things that fuks most traders up is judging decisions by the outcome.
Again, did I have any planned setup for a trade like this? No.
One of the things that fuks most traders up is judging decisions by the outcome.
9/ You can read a good book by Anne Duke on that, "Thinking in Bets".
In the first instance, when I lost money, I made the correct choice: I followed my exit setup that has a verifiable edge over a statistical sequence of trades.
In the first instance, when I lost money, I made the correct choice: I followed my exit setup that has a verifiable edge over a statistical sequence of trades.
10/ If you don't know what an edge is you shouldn't even be trading.
Read this one: learntotradethemarket.com/forex-articles…
Having an edge basically means that, mathematically, you have, on a SERIES of trades, statistical probability on your side to win more than you lose.
Read this one: learntotradethemarket.com/forex-articles…
Having an edge basically means that, mathematically, you have, on a SERIES of trades, statistical probability on your side to win more than you lose.
11/ You're basically acting like a Casino.
You're basically fuking printing.
In the second instance, when I made money, I made the wrong choice, I was just swinging it based on "instincts" and risked digging an even bigger, totally unnecessary hole in my account.
You're basically fuking printing.
In the second instance, when I made money, I made the wrong choice, I was just swinging it based on "instincts" and risked digging an even bigger, totally unnecessary hole in my account.
12/ I had no edge whatsoever. I made a mistake and I was LUCKY.
If u can't differentiate between luck and skill, sorry but, again, u shouldn't even be trading.
Lacking this critical thinking skill is why people making boatloads out of nowhere on doggocoins shouldn't trigger you
If u can't differentiate between luck and skill, sorry but, again, u shouldn't even be trading.
Lacking this critical thinking skill is why people making boatloads out of nowhere on doggocoins shouldn't trigger you
13/ Will they recognize it's just sheer luck and exit the casino when they're on top? NO.
They will keep betting until the casino takes it all back.
They will keep betting until the casino takes it all back.
14/ Recap:
A) In one case I made the right decision and had a bad outcome, lost $$$
B) In one case I made the wrong decision and had a good outcome, made $$$
DO NOT - EVER - judge the trades you make by the outcome.
A) In one case I made the right decision and had a bad outcome, lost $$$
B) In one case I made the wrong decision and had a good outcome, made $$$
DO NOT - EVER - judge the trades you make by the outcome.
15/ Your job as a trader is to
1. Have a plan
2. With a verifiable edge
3. Just execute the plan
4. Without even thinking about the outcome of the next trade (because it's totally irrelevant in the long run)
1. Have a plan
2. With a verifiable edge
3. Just execute the plan
4. Without even thinking about the outcome of the next trade (because it's totally irrelevant in the long run)
16/ If you do that, in the long run, you'll make money, ton of it, effortlessly.
If you don't do that, it's only a matter of time, you will make some money, lose some, make it big, then lose it bigger, until you go back to zero.
Peace out and have a great weekend.
If you don't do that, it's only a matter of time, you will make some money, lose some, make it big, then lose it bigger, until you go back to zero.
Peace out and have a great weekend.
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